N. Illinois vs. Akron -- Am I missing something?

OK, here's the situation...after two miserable days out of 13, I am down a good bit to my sportsbroker and tomorrow is pay day.

I'm perusing the lines for SOLID bets only tonight to try to at least lower the damage...lo and behold I see that N. Illinois is favored by 14.5 points over Akron in the MAC title game.

Perhaps it's just me, but it appears that this spread is way off unless I'm just not getting some piece of crucial information (major injury for Akron, death, plague, etc).

Here's the case I present to you..and please, supply me with as much feedback as you can..

1. The Zips have won won three of their last four, including shellackings of Ohio U and Kent State where they allowed a COMBINED six points.

2. Earlier this season, Akron beat NIU, 48-42, on their home turf.

Two touchdowns and a hook seem like a gift to me...anyone agree or think I'm nuts?

By the way, how easy has it been betting home NBA teams this year?

Cheers!

"How about you give me the money you were gonna bet, I'll kick ya in the nuts, and we'll call it a day." Why don't you just save your money and give up sportsbetting? It takes years off your life as you watch desperately as a team fails to cover what looks like an amazing spread. If it was a good spread then the sportsbooks wouldn't offer it. On the other hand, go with Iona -2 tonight vs. Fordham large. $1000.

Wow, thanks for your advice Father Flanagan. Just what I was looking for tonight. I shake my head at posts like this.

Uh, Akron barely beat Buffalo (they were the worst team in the country at that time) and got shut out by Army. Shut out. By Army.

I doubt I will take this game. Akron has played better lately, but the win over Kent St. means little because Kent St. lost to Buffalo. Translation: Kent State blows royally. The Ohio win is OK. I watched the Northern Illinois game against Toledo, and my impression is that Northern Ill. and Akron are on completely different levels. I should have jumped on this when it was under 14 (I saw 13.5 yesterday); 2 TDs and a hook might be too much but will look. I most definitely will NOT take Akron.

Edit: I see the spread is now 13. I will be taking Northern Ill. large. G'night everybody.

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1. The Zips have won won three of their last four, including shellackings of Ohio U and Kent State where they allowed a COMBINED six points.

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Wins at home vs bad Ohio and Kent State teams doesn't really prove anything to me. Just my opinion though.

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2. Earlier this season, Akron beat NIU, 48-42, on their home turf.

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One can argue that this was their last significant win of the season. Let's quickly summarize what they've done since then. Lost by 14 at home vs Central Michigan. Lost @Buffalo to a HORRIBLE Buffalo team. Got crushed @ Miami Ohio. Got SHUTOUT at home vs Army. Won @ Bowling Green -- fairly impressive but Omar Jacobs didn't play and if I remember correctly, PJ Pope was playing hurt too. Lost @ Ball State. And the last two games were the ones already mentioned. So the conclusion I draw is that they are ok at home but haven't beaten anyone of significance since September and meanwhile have lost some games to some bad teams. NoIl meanwhile has improved in every game since their last meeting and with Garet Wolfe (future NFL superstar btw) finally at full health, I think NoIl definitely has the advantage.

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Two touchdowns and a hook seem like a gift to me...anyone agree or think I'm nuts?

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Last I checked the lines were NoIll -12 or -13. I'm on NoIl-12 FWIW.

Oops, my bad, they did beat Buffalo. Still doesn't change my mind though. Good luck tonight.

[Easy E]

If Akron opened at +14.5 and has been bet down to 12 or 12.5, was the original line over a key number too high, or was this intentional?

If Northern Illinois is such a strong play, why is the line moving the "wrong" way? Why would the public be playing so strongly on that side?

If there are sharps betting this number down... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

spread for me is at +12.5 on Skybook, so the free 1/2 pt bumps you up to that ever important 13. I'm on Akron.

Thanks for the insight folks! Much appreciated...this is exactly why I love this site. You all just likely saved me from laying it all on Akron.

Good luck to all!

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If Akron opened at +14.5 and has been bet down to 12 or 12.5, was the original line over a key number too high, or was this intentional?

If Northern Illinois is such a strong play, why is the line moving the "wrong" way? Why would the public be playing so strongly on that side?

If there are sharps betting this number down... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

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The %'s are pretty even -- 45/55 on Sportsbook now. I've seen the line go both up and down so I think there's sharp money on both sides. Looks like we might have to *gasp* make our own decision!

[StinkWater]

zips love the spotlight. knocked off marshall last year in their nationally televised game.

[MicroBob]

akron stinks for the most part.

NIU might have been over-valued because of their day-before-TGiving national-TV destruction of WMU.


Otherwise, I didn't even know who was playing in this game until yesterday and I doubt there's much value on either side of the line at 12.5 or 13 really.


Also - the original poster should get his life together and should give up sports-betting.
It doesn't sound good at all.
To answer the question though: Yup...lots of people have some sure-fire sports-picks for you. They won't all win though. Asking on a forum is idiotic.

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Also - the original poster should get his life together and should give up sports-betting.
It doesn't sound good at all.
To answer the question though: Yup...lots of people have some sure-fire sports-picks for you. They won't all win though. Asking on a forum is idiotic.

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WOW...someone sure woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. My comments were made in gest and I came to THIS FORUM - Sports Betting - to find out what other sports bettors think of the spread. Seems to me that's ABSOLUTELY within the spirit of the forum.

I'm sincerely apologetic that my making light of my losing the last two weeks has caused you such angst. What is idiotic is making as assumption based on what your perception of a post is.

Quite ashame too...I had much respect for your postings on many different topics. Not sure why you would make something like this a personal attack - see, get a life.

Here's some advice for you Bob - LIGHTEN UP, FRANCES!

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Also - the original poster should get his life together and should give up sports-betting.
It doesn't sound good at all.
To answer the question though: Yup...lots of people have some sure-fire sports-picks for you. They won't all win though. Asking on a forum is idiotic.

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WOW...someone sure woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. My comments were made in gest and I came to THIS FORUM - Sports Betting - to find out what other sports bettors think of the spread. Seems to me that's ABSOLUTELY within the spirit of the forum.

I'm sincerely apologetic that my making light of my losing the last two weeks has caused you such angst. What is idiotic is making as assumption based on what your perception of a post is.

Quite ashame too...I had much respect for your postings on many different topics. Not sure why you would make something like this a personal attack - see, get a life.

Here's some advice for you Bob - LIGHTEN UP, FRANCES!

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I am over 99% sure that MicroBob was joking.

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"How about you give me the money you were gonna bet, I'll kick ya in the nuts, and we'll call it a day." Why don't you just save your money and give up sportsbetting? It takes years off your life as you watch desperately as a team fails to cover what looks like an amazing spread. If it was a good spread then the sportsbooks wouldn't offer it. On the other hand, go with Iona -2 tonight vs. Fordham large. $1000.

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Nice pick. Jackass.

[plus_man]

Never trust any team from Ohio is my philosophy.

[DCWildcat]

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Never trust any team from Ohio is my philosophy.

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And a good one. If OP is really from northern KY, he should have been following this philosophy since birth. Thereabouts are my roots.

[MCS]

FWIW my beloved Sagarin predictor lines this game at 13.2 on a neutral field. There may be some kind of injuries involved that I don't know about, but the numbers alone don't point to this being a +EV bet.

If I had to bet my life I guess I'd pick Akron, because 14 is a key number and the spread is slightly more generous than Sagarin "thinks it should be" anyway.

[ChipWrecked]

24-27 NIU with 7:27 left to go.

I ain't sayin' it's over, but I faded everybody at 12.5 and took Akron, and I'm on a huge rush lately.

Good a reason as any to me /images/graemlins/cool.gif

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24-27 NIU with 7:27 left to go.

I ain't sayin' it's over, but I faded everybody at 12.5 and took Akron, and I'm on a huge rush lately.

Good a reason as any to me /images/graemlins/cool.gif

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Me too!!!! I bet a million! How much did you get on it? I also won a million on the Bengals this last weekend......

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You all just likely saved me from laying it all on Akron.

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You're very, very welcome. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ChipWrecked]

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24-27 NIU with 7:27 left to go.

I ain't sayin' it's over, but I faded everybody at 12.5 and took Akron, and I'm on a huge rush lately.

Good a reason as any to me /images/graemlins/cool.gif

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Me too!!!! I bet a million! How much did you get on it? I also won a million on the Bengals this last weekend......

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I bet my daughter.

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Uh, Akron barely beat Buffalo (they were the worst team in the country at that time) and got shut out by Army. Shut out. By Army.

I doubt I will take this game. Akron has played better lately, but the win over Kent St. means little because Kent St. lost to Buffalo. Translation: Kent State blows royally. The Ohio win is OK. I watched the Northern Illinois game against Toledo, and my impression is that Northern Ill. and Akron are on completely different levels. I should have jumped on this when it was under 14 (I saw 13.5 yesterday); 2 TDs and a hook might be too much but will look. I most definitely will NOT take Akron.

Edit: I see the spread is now 13. I will be taking Northern Ill. large. G'night everybody.

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To quote you

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Nice pick. Jackass.

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What an awesome game! I had the second half over and the zips +7 in 2nd half.. Did not need the ending to win the bets but WOW what a game!

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Uh, Akron barely beat Buffalo (they were the worst team in the country at that time) and got shut out by Army. Shut out. By Army.

I doubt I will take this game. Akron has played better lately, but the win over Kent St. means little because Kent St. lost to Buffalo. Translation: Kent State blows royally. The Ohio win is OK. I watched the Northern Illinois game against Toledo, and my impression is that Northern Ill. and Akron are on completely different levels. I should have jumped on this when it was under 14 (I saw 13.5 yesterday); 2 TDs and a hook might be too much but will look. I most definitely will NOT take Akron.

Edit: I see the spread is now 13. I will be taking Northern Ill. large. G'night everybody.

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To quote you

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Nice pick. Jackass.

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Good point. Very, very good point.

[ChipWrecked]

Tough room.

Guess I missed big on this one. I was hoping Wolfe would be unstoppable but Getsy was equally as impressive. Nice win Zips backers.

[ChipWrecked]

In the end I went with psychology, which I know has no place in statistics and math.

I put myself in the Akron team's head. 14 point dogs to a team they beat feels like an insult.

I'm on that team, I'm going out there to stick that line in the smart money's ear. I think it was a sharp motivator for them.

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I also won a million on the Bengals this last weekend......

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I'll bet you only had them because of my POSTED pick /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif