from flop to river

Hi,

why are flop decisions based on outs for the turn and not for the river?

For example: I'm HU with a nut flush draw against Toppair. It is bet to me and I'm considering calling.

Standard calculation:
My chances hitting my flush on the turn are 1-4.1 (9 outs). The pot has to be at least 4.1*0.5BB = ~2BB.

My calculation:
I can calulate what I have to pay to see the river. 1/2 BB on the flop and 1 BB on the turn e.g. 100% of the time. The total cost of seeing the river is 1.5 BB. My chance of hitting the flush by the river is 1-1.9. So the pot has to be at least 1.5 BB * 1.9 = 2.8 BB .

The latter calcuation doesn't seem correct because I don't consider an extra bet I could get either on the turn or the river.

But how can the first one be correct? It doesn't account for:
*extra bets I could get on the turn (or river)
*bets I'm likely to pay on the turn (or river)

I'm very confused as to how you're using BB's to decide the odds, and i'm very confused as to what your question is.

It seems to me like you've answered your question...odds are calculated based on what you know. You know that you need to pay x amount for 1 card, and you know the odds of hitting in 1 card, therefore thats what you use to calculate your odds. You can't start calculating on the river because you have no idea what you will be paying to get to the river.

[ QUOTE ]
You can't start calculating on the river because you have no idea what you will be paying to get to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my example I can calculate it. As everything else I can use a probability distrubition to calculate what I will have to pay. For example: 3 people in the pot: ~10% 4 Bets; ~30% 3 Bets; ~40% 2 Bets; 20% 1 Bet.

My question is: Why use the standard pot-odds / outs calculation when it is flawed anyway, because you don't know how big the pot will be in the end.

ahhh, I'm guessin you're talkin about limit?

Because Pot Odds only are concerned with the money in the pot vs what you have to put in. It seems you're thinking more of Implied Odds, which consider not only the current pot odds but the extra bets you may get on later streets when you hit.

Thats what I gathered the question to be from your post anyway

Yes. Sorry for my confused posts.