Folding the river for one bet with top pair...

[ElSapo]

Two limpers, and the SB raises. I call in the BB with K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

SB is multi-tabling and TAGish, and though I don't know him I think he's probably a good player. Just my initial reaction.


Flop is 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB bets, I raise, one cold-caller, and the SB three-bets. We both call.

Turn is a 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif, SB bets, I call and the other player calls.

River is a 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, SB bets and I fold...


EDIT for typo.

[jt1]

so why would you do that? the river isn't scary at all. You just want to be reamed, don't you?

SB may have KT or KJ for all you know. Or even a pissed off QQ.

[bnorthro]

I really hope that was a misclick....

[Peter Harris]

Hmm. with the PFR, the 3 bet and the turn donk, I doubt SB has QQ-99. It looks like KQ for a chop, AA.

It crossed my mind that A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif would play this way, with a bet on the busted draw.

However, that's unlikely with two opponents to bluff out.

I think the river fold is not heinous. Far from it. Whether I'd fold it is another matter, but I'm a megadonkey.

EDIT: given other responses, I'd like to know if the villain has a history of overplaying pockets vs a board overcard; what sort of SD% gone to etc. I agree that KJs, KJo, KTs and maybe KTo play this way; I am still sceptical 99-QQ would be played so TAGtardy, but it's a possibility.

I still don't know for sure if the fold is goot or not...
As ramrod says, you're getting 19-1 on a river call, but a player is still to act behind you, right? Hmm.

[jba]

if you don't have odds to call the river, I don't see how you have odds to call the turn.

my point is you should call the river, KJ is very possible here.

[car ramrod]

getting about 19-1 I am calling that river for sure.

The possibility that he was playing top pair with a flush draw aggressively on the flop is compelling enough to call a river bet. I see we're losing to something like K3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif a fair amount, but the pot has gotten too big at this point. We have to call, even though we may be beat.

[Haupt_234]

If you aren't planning on calling the river then there's no reason to call the turn.

I call down after being 3bet on the flop.

Haupt_234

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
if you don't have odds to call the river, I don't see how you have odds to call the turn.

my point is you should call the river, KJ is very possible here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think KJs is the only reasonable hand I beat here, though a chop is possible. He's a good player raising two limpers out of the SB and he's done nothing but bet and raise.

I called the turn not trying to spike, but still trying to work out if I was behind. When he bets the river, I think I'm not winning.

[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't planning on calling the river then there's no reason to call the turn.

I call down after being 3bet on the flop.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has two pair, we have outs to the board pairing.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
The possibility that he was playing top pair with a flush draw aggressively on the flop is compelling enough to call a river bet. I see we're losing to something like K3:diamonds: a fair amount, but the pot has gotten too big at this point. We have to call, even though we may be beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good players rarely raise two limpers from the SB with K3s ... the general consensus is that my fold was awful — I can accept that, it probably was, but on the river when he bets into two players I came to the conclusion that I was probably not winning.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]

If he has two pair, we have outs to the board pairing.


[/ QUOTE ]

What does he make two-pair with that he raises from the SB with?

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't planning on calling the river then there's no reason to call the turn.

I call down after being 3bet on the flop.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has two pair, we have outs to the board pairing.

[/ QUOTE ]

you need to do a little bit more hand reading

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The possibility that he was playing top pair with a flush draw aggressively on the flop is compelling enough to call a river bet. I see we're losing to something like K3:diamonds: a fair amount, but the pot has gotten too big at this point. We have to call, even though we may be beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good players rarely raise two limpers from the SB with K3s ... the general consensus is that my fold was awful — I can accept that, it probably was, but on the river when he bets into two players I came to the conclusion that I was probably not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought he completed. Well, the only reasonable hand he could have is AA or AK? I see your point.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river fold is not heinous. Far from it. Whether I'd fold it is another matter, but I'm a megadonkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

You and I may be the only ones to not think it's awful. I'm not saying it's right — and after reading these responses, I'd call next time — but I don't think it's as bad as some say. Betting the river into two players, and the SB raise, and the TAG-ish playing, says he's got a real hand to me.

But next time, yeah, I'll probably call.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't planning on calling the river then there's no reason to call the turn.

I call down after being 3bet on the flop.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has two pair, we have outs to the board pairing.

[/ QUOTE ]

you need to do a little bit more hand reading

[/ QUOTE ]

yah, like looking at the pre-flop action (after I have my morning coffee).

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you don't have odds to call the river, I don't see how you have odds to call the turn.

my point is you should call the river, KJ is very possible here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think KJs is the only reasonable hand I beat here, though a chop is possible. He's a good player raising two limpers out of the SB and he's done nothing but bet and raise.

I called the turn not trying to spike, but still trying to work out if I was behind. When he bets the river, I think I'm not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]


I am raising KJo out of the SB vs two limpers with a TAG BB a LOT, and KTs/KTo against the right limpers/BB. and i'm not even close to the 30/20 tags, more like 25/17.


do you want to fold the turn now?

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
I am raising KJo out of the SB vs two limpers with a TAG BB a LOT, and KTs/KTo against the right limpers/BB. and i'm not even close to the 30/20 tags, more like 25/17.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will you then three-bet the flop and bet all streets?

Everyone seems to think my fold sucks, and maybe it does (I'm here asking for advice, not waving the "look at my awesome saved bet" flag) ... but I don't think it's as bad as some make it out to be. Then again, I could be wrong.

I don't raise KTo or KJo in the SB, I think that's going too far. The TAG BB will call often, and it looks like you're saying you want a fold.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]

You and I may be the only ones to not think it's awful. I'm not saying it's right — and after reading these responses, I'd call next time — but I don't think it's as bad as some say.

[/ QUOTE ]

Allow me to use this opportunity to mention one of my pet peeves (not directed at anyone in particlar). I see little point when people lambaste a particular decision as "awful," or some other derogatory term. If the decision is wrong, who cares what degree of "bad" it is? It's fine to specify multiple reasons why a decision is wrong; but I get aggravated when they just proclaim that something is "absurd" or "heinous," as if the stronger language somehow makes their position more convincing.

Anyway, so long as you understand that the decision is incorrect, that's what's important.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
If the decision is wrong, who cares what degree of "bad" it is?

[/ QUOTE ]

In some ways, you're right. But in poker we can try and affix a range of hands and probabilities and work out the general EV of a decision.

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise KTo or KJo in the SB, I think that's going too far. The TAG BB will call often, and it looks like you're saying you want a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

the limpers, well, limped, so we assume they aren't too good. KJ is strong enough to raise here, I don't think the tag BB is calling that often, he is tight afterall.

[Wynton]

Well, here I think most people are saying that the river fold is wrong, based on probable hands. All I'm saying is that, once we conclude the decision is -ev, nothing is gained by the additional, inflammatory labels.

(Incidentally, looking back at this thread, I don't think anyone used such terms here, though it certainly happens frequently.)

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
(Incidentally, looking back at this thread, I don't think anyone used such terms here, though it certainly happens frequently.)

[/ QUOTE ]

*raises hand*

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river fold is not heinous.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise KTo or KJo in the SB, I think that's going too far. The TAG BB will call often, and it looks like you're saying you want a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

the limpers, well, limped, so we assume they aren't too good. KJ is strong enough to raise here, I don't think the tag BB is calling that often, he is tight afterall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 7-1, I'm calling with a whole bunch of suited trash-looking cards and obviously all pairs. The one thing I fear is dominated broadway cards, but I may call with those also.

I think a TAG who plays well post-flop is calling a lot here in what will likely be a 4-handed pot.

[milesdyson]

KTs, KJ, KQ are possible.
2 + 8 + 8/2 (divided by two because we split) = 14

you lose to AA, KK, and AK.
6 + 1 + 8 = 15

discount the hands we beat a bunch and we should still be calling the river.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am raising KJo out of the SB vs two limpers with a TAG BB a LOT, and KTs/KTo against the right limpers/BB. and i'm not even close to the 30/20 tags, more like 25/17.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will you then three-bet the flop and bet all streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

on this raggedy flushy board absolutely

[gonzopro]

[ QUOTE ]
getting about 19-1 I am calling that river for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

easy greasy

[TomBrooks]

Either Cap the Flop or Raise the turn.

Folding the river? Yikes!

[DMBFan23]

top pair with a flush draw? the K is a /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[tansoku]

Not counting KTos in villains range, and giving the other top 30% of hands..
Board: 3s 2h Ks 5c 7d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.4377 % 30.14% 09.30% { KdQs }
Hand 2: 53.4448 % 44.15% 09.30% { KK+, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 07.1175 % 06.69% 00.43% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

If you assume the other guy was on a FD and will fold:
Board: 3s 2h Ks 5c 7d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.9355 % 32.26% 09.68% { KdQs }
Hand 2: 58.0645 % 48.39% 09.68% { KK+, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KJo+ }

Getting 19:1 this is a must call.

[ QUOTE ]


Good players rarely raise two limpers from the SB with K3s ... the general consensus is that my fold was awful — I can accept that, it probably was, but on the river when he bets into two players I came to the conclusion that I was probably not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

He bet out into two on the turn and you called, but you folded when he did this on the river?!?!

Call, if you dont and you see that you would have won 20 BB's for 1 BB investment, you'll go on super tilt. You very well could have the best hand.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]

If he has two pair, we have outs to the board pairing.


[/ QUOTE ]

How can you put the multitabling TAG who raised out of the SB after 2 limpers on 2 pair given that board?

Haupt_234

[spydog]

I would normally call this flop and raise the turn. This is the only way to protect your hand against a flush draw. Plus, it's a pretty easy fold if you get 3-bet by the SB.

Calling this flop can also yield some dead money from the 2 limpers who are probably drawing nearly dead, but may call 1 SB on the flop for no reason and may pick up a pair on the turn that they might call 2 BBs with.