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View Full Version : Trying to understand the math behind calling on the river ????


PJM1206
12-01-2005, 11:43 AM
I have done the calculations and would appreciate your comments on the logic and math. I have included the actual hand as well to help understand my logic. I am trying to better understand the words " call on the river if you have the odds" You think you may be beat but the pot is offering the right odds:

Here's the hand

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (7.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Hands that beat Me: AA (1) KK(1) AK(4), 44(6), TT (6), QJ (16), any 2 suited (45)= total 79 hands (note for the any 2 suited I used 2 suited cards with 3 on board
N!/(N-R)!*R! 10!(10-2)!*2!= 45)


Hands I beat: Flop AJ (16), AT(16), Axs (30) QQ-22 (66)
Total hands 128 hands ( Note for Axs I used Axs with 3 suits on board less KQJT 6!(6-2)!*2!= 15 x2 = 30 combinations/suite)


128 hands I win/207 total hands = 62% chance to win or approx 1.6 to 1 favorite.

The above hand has me as the favorite but assume I wasnt given the math If I was behind by the 1.6 to I would then need pot odds of 1.6 to 1 or better to call. This isnt the best hand example as this has me as the favorite mathmatically but the idea is what I am trying to get familair with