I call down with AKs

[PokerBob]

villain here is 25/19/3. yes?
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

[kidcolin]

eesh. Tough one. I think I let it go on the river, though.

[Monty Cantsin]

This can't possibly be a situation with one correct line, can it? Even against this particular player, on this particular board, I think you would want to mix this up somewhat. Right?

/mc

[zram21]

Looks good to me. Villan only needs to be playing a worse A high 13% of the time to make this call profitable. A TAG is likely to play a low A high against a possible steal this way.

*grunch*
do you think that villain bluffs a busted flushdraw more than 15% on the river? Only then the call is worthwhile.
The turn-call is ok because of your gutshot and your overcards may be good. Although an A or K coming could make quite some 2pairs for hands tight players could defend with in the BB like AXs, AT or KT, maybe even K5s. So your overcard outs won't be good all the time. I don't really think you want to see a SD here.
Because I hate folding to river bets (and are completely new to SH), I'd really like to know what other people think about folding the turn here.

[tallstack]

I like it. I can't see folding this anywhere.

Dave

[imported_leader]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

118 games 0.060 secs 1,966 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Th 3h Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.0169 % 11.02% 00.00% { AsKs }
Hand 2: 88.9831 % 88.98% 00.00% { 55, 22, A4s-A2s, Kc7c, Kc6c, K5s, Kc4c, Kc3c, K2s, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Q5s, Qc4c, Qc3c, Q2s, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 5c4c, A5o, A2o, K5o, K2o, Q5o, JTo, T7o+ }

I would fold. The above assumes he bets the river every time with a busted flush draw and its still not enough. So even if you remove some of the hands that beat us because he wouldn't always play them like that, I doubt that you could get enough equity to justify a call.

I'm not sure but I think a TAG would lean toward checking the river with a worse A rather than taking another stab at it.

I fold on the river.

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure but I think a TAG would lean toward checking the river with a worse A rather than taking another stab at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said most the agruments you can make against my range make it more of a fold.

[admiralfluff]

without reading any replies:

I think this is definitely a situation where you need to varry your play. I'm sure many will disagree, but I would strongly advocate a c/r on this turn every once in a while (1/10-1/15 times). This will make a turn or river fold (which should be your stabdard play depending on particulars) far better the rest of the time. If used sparingly the turn c/r is probably close on its own anyways.

I really think that people underestimate how important it is to varry your play against observant opponents (they don't even have to be good, many LAGs pay attention too). Finding the correct play based on optimal immediate EV should not be the overwhelmingly dominant factor in poker decisions, yet it is the overwhelmingly dominant focus of evaluation in these boards.

in other words: shania is grossely underrated IMHO.

[climber]

maybe I am mistaken but from all the mid-high stuff I've read on this kind of scenario...a flop c/r followed by turn lead is the standard line to use here...right?

actaully nothing to do with the board, your holding, or your opponent. just you are HU and c/ring every flop gives away the least information while keeping the pressure on...am i getting somethign wrong here?

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]

I think this is definitely a situation where you need to vary your play. I'm sure many will disagree...

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree strongly.


[ QUOTE ]
I really think that people underestimate how important it is to varry your play against observant opponents (they don't even have to be good, many LAGs pay attention too). Finding the correct play based on optimal immediate EV should not be the overwhelmingly dominant factor in poker decisions, yet it is the overwhelmingly dominant focus of evaluation in these boards.


[/ QUOTE ]

I feel the same way.

It's funny, because when we talk about heads up matches we recognize that no hand can be analyzed in a vacuum and every play must be seen within the fluid context of the ebb and flow of the match and we recognize the supreme importance of shifting gears and mixing our play.

But we tend to analyze "normal" hands in relative isolation, as if there is clearly a best line that can be discovered through logic and math. But without the ebb and flow, it's impossible to correctly gauge the metagame values.

I'm not saying we should all {be / this / guy} (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=3980494&amp;page=0&amp;fpart=all &amp;vc=1) but we could use a little more acknowledgement about the importance of mixed strategies and metagame management, especially in short-handed play, even at the lower stakes.

I'm not sure what I want here. I don't want people to post a lot of "it depends" responses. To some degree monostrategy responses are just a limitation of our format. We want to find which play is best, A or B, but often the truth is if you ALWAYS did A or ALWAYS did B you would be making a mistake. But to say that each time is tiresome.

I guess that's one of the cool things about people posting videos of their sessions. Not only do you get more ebb and flow, but you also get to see them thinking as they hover their cursor over the raise button, then the call button, then the fold button.

For me, the trajectory of that cursor as it orbits between the gravity wells of the various plays expresses a lot about the non-linear nature of poker strategy that gets lost in our "find the best line" format.

/mc