reconsidering a value bet

[NLSoldier]

This is a value bet that I always make, but this time right after I clicked bet I started to wonder just how much value there is in betting this. I guess i am hoping he has diamonds with the 9 or T?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises</font>, 1 fold[/i]</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)</font>
BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (7.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[baronzeus]

any pp will pay off. you split with most aces. whatever, its fine. easy fold if raised.

also, a flush draw that picked up a pair will pay off too.

[Lmn55d]

what do you think about not raising the flop? How often do you think he has:

a) air
b) a pocket pair he folds to a raise
c) a better ace
d) a flush draw that he bluffs the river with but doesn't 3bet the flop

Against a lot of players I like just calling down. Am I losing too much value?

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
any pp will pay off. you split with most aces. whatever, its fine. easy fold if raised.

also, a flush draw that picked up a pair will pay off too.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you think about not raising the flop? How often do you think he has:

a) air
b) a pocket pair he folds to a raise
c) a better ace
d) a flush draw that he bluffs the river with but doesn't 3bet the flop

Against a lot of players I like just calling down. Am I losing too much value?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line a lot in these situations against donks, but you should raise the river (planning on folding to a 3-bet unless the guy's particularly silly). Bad players will often pay you off with any pocket pair or any pair they happened to have picked up.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
any pp will pay off. you split with most aces. whatever, its fine. easy fold if raised.

also, a flush draw that picked up a pair will pay off too.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah yeah yeah. i know all this. i dont even know why i asked the question considering the guy called with K high no diamonds. i guess i just feel like one of my leaks is blindly value betting w/o really thinking about it but apperently this wasnt one that i need to think about /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Lmn55d]

you don't raise a diamond river, right?

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't raise a diamond river, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

no

Edit: Because many of the worse hands I expect to pay off my river raise will check/call a diamond river, not because I'm particlarly afraid of diamonds. I think he has a small-medium pocket pair, 34, 45, Kx, or complete air fairly often here.

[Schneids]

Call the flop raise the turn check the river.

[NLSoldier]

yeah that line sounds good, although it would not have maximized my value out of K4o /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Victor]

why are you playing 10/20 now too? all you fuckers need to move back up.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop raise the turn check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you are ahead here, you think this guy is on a draw more often than a PP or complete air?

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
why are you playing 10/20 now too? all you fuckers need to move back up.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe you will reconsider your request?

http://img484.imageshack.us/img484/8804/imsweetatpoker6kj.jpg

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop raise the turn check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you are ahead here, you think this guy is on a draw more often than a PP or complete air?

[/ QUOTE ]

good point. i think the answer is no. seems like ppl are on complete air all the freaking time these days. my new line is straight calldown.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Call the flop raise the turn check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you are ahead here, you think this guy is on a draw more often than a PP or complete air?

[/ QUOTE ]

good point. i think the answer is no. seems like ppl are on complete air all the freaking time these days. my new line is straight calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

How are your bluffs, if you ever run them, going to have any credibility (from a game theory standpoint)? Watch out becoming too predictable post flop (ie raising when you're on air, calling when you have something).

I think the line I presented best gets you action with good hands, while also letting yourself see who CAN be bluffed out of a pot. But if you run your rare bluffs by raising on the turn, you need to do so with more than the nuts.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop raise the turn check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you are ahead here, you think this guy is on a draw more often than a PP or complete air?

[/ QUOTE ]

good point. i think the answer is no. seems like ppl are on complete air all the freaking time these days. my new line is straight calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

How are your bluffs, if you ever run them, going to have any credibility (from a game theory standpoint)? Watch out becoming too predictable post flop (ie raising when you're on air, calling when you have something).

I think the line I presented best gets you action with good hands, while also letting yourself see who CAN be bluffed out of a pot. But if you run your rare bluffs by raising on the turn, you need to do so with more than the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of this, but I think in this particular spot, the tradeoff in immediate ev is too much to be offset by metagame considerations. If there's ever a time where a guy is likely to be completely full of [censored], it's when he donk bets you on A22 flop.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop raise the turn check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

How are u responding to a turn 3bet, if it happens.

[Jeff W]

Jesus christ. Is that real? A 825 BB downswing and a 78k breakeven streak? I hope most of your lost BBs were confined to 10/20.

You should post that graph on the BBV forum.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus christ. Is that real? A 825 BB downswing and a 78k breakeven streak? I hope most of your lost BBs were confined to 10/20.

You should post that graph on the BBV forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

he did, lol

[TStoneMBD]

glad to see that you just had a nice 400BB upswing over 10k. hope it continues.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus christ. Is that real? A 825 BB downswing and a 78k breakeven streak? I hope most of your lost BBs were confined to 10/20.

You should post that graph on the BBV forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

you must live in a cave if you haven't seen that graph yet