Saturday Night Fever (tourney report)

[eMarkM]

Pokerstars 7/6 11PM EST $100+9 NLHE event. Itching to get back into the action after this week's 2nd place finish, I sign up for some Saturday night poker. 166 in the field. First place is nearly 5K. Comments on play and strategy welcomed.

Hand #33, 15/30, 9 handed, I have T1290
I get AsJs in MP and raise a limper 120, he calls. Flop comes

Ks 7s 3d

He checks, I bet 510 and he calls. Turn brings my flush with a 3s. Check, I go all-in with 630 and he calls. I go to T2640.

Hand #36, 25/50, 9 handed, T2640
I get AA in EP and raise 100. Next player calls, an LP player calls. Flop comes

Ks 2h 9s

EP bets out 300. I raise all-in 2190. LP folds, EP thinks and thinks and calls with KJo. Probably should have pulled him along some more as I don't think most would make that call when I push in.

Hand #44, 25/50, 8 handed, T5555
I raise a limper 500 with KK. LP short stack raises all-in to 830, limper folds, I call. He has T3o (!?) and I move to 6510.

Hand #97, 75/150, 8 handed, T6585
From EP raise 450 with JJ. LP goes all-in with his 3020 stack. I think for a long time and call to see his KQo. He gets no help from the board and I move to T9830, very near top in chips.

Hand #139, 100/200 a25, 8 handed, T7205
Folded to me in LP, raise to 1000 with AKo. Next player goes all-in with 4175 and I call. I have him badly dominated when he turns over ATs. Flop comes

Ah Th Jd

I don't get the K or Q and go from top 10 to near the bottom in chips.

Hand #147, 200/400 a25, 7 handed, T3155
EP raises all-in with 1017. I go all-in with JJ. He has A6o. He gets no ace and I go to T4722.

Hand #157, 200/400 a25, 8 handed, T3897
MP raises 400. I go all-in with 88. He folds.

Hand #179, 300/600 a50, 6 handed, T3872
Very close to the money now, only a couple more to be eliminated before final two tables. Shortest stack goes all-in 253. I raise 1800 with KK. 10K stack calls from the BB. Flop comes

Js 2s Jd

BB goes all-in and I call all-in and risk getting busted on the bubble. I was committed now and called to be shown 33. I go to 7185 and can breath a little before the cutoff to cash.

Hand #182, 300/600 a50, 6 handed, T7085
One to go before final two tables and in the money. I smile when a EP T5882 raises 1400, a tiny T612 stack goes all-in and I'm staring at Aces from LP. I reraise all-in, the EP calls. EP has AK and tiny stack has QQ. I bust'em both and we move to the final two tables. I have T13729.

Hand #187, 400/800 a50, 9 handed, T14879
I'm 4th in chips at my table behind leader with 47K. Chip leader open raises the minimum 800. I call to see a flop with K4s. Flop comes

Jc Ks Jd

I check, he bets 4800 and I raise 8429 all-in. He folds.

Hand #210, 400/800 a50, 6 handed, T24029
Only one or two left to be eliminated before the final table. I have half of what the chip leader has and twice what the table's small stack has. T16182 raises 800 from EP, shortest stack with T9576 calls. I fold AQo.

Hand #215, 600/1200 a75, 9 handed, T21929
First hand of final table! Starting stacks are 59K, 42, 33, 25, 23, 22, 22(me), 14, 7. I fold T8o.

Hand #221, 600/1200 a75, 9 handed, T26354
LP T25k stack raises 2400. I re-raise 3600 BB with AsQs, he calls. Flop comes

Ts 8s 5d

I go all in 19K and he calls. He has 99 and I'm a microscopic favorite. Turn comes 8h, river is 5s and I win to go to T52809 and 2nd place.

Hand #234, 1000/2000 a100, 6 handed, T61209
Some stealing has built me up to 61K, good for 2nd behind 76K stack. Short stack has 17K. Folded around to SB who raises minimum 2000. I call from BB with Q4o. Flop comes

Qh 2c 4c

And that looks pretty good to me when SB bets out 10K. I raise to put his remaining 14K in and he calls and shows a crushed A9o. 5th place locked in with chip lead at 89K!

Hand #239, 1000/2000 a100, 5 handed, T94077
Short stack with 15K goes all-in, I call from the SB with KhQh. He shows KTo, we go down to four and my chip lead is 111K vs 65/58/14K stacks.

Hand #241, 1000/2000 a100, 4 handed, T94077
I raise 6000 with A9o. 67K stack on button goes all-in and I fold.

Hand #246, 1000/2000 a100, 3 handed, T111569
Short stack was just eliminated and it's down to 3 players. I have 111K stack, other two have 75K and 62. At this point the peanut gallery is calling for a deal. Unfortunately, I've never done a deal before so I'm not sure how it works out at this point. Is straight chip equity usually how it's done, or does that get massaged somehow? My recollections of the chapter on deals in the Skalansky tourney book escapes me. I'll have to learn the art of the deal if I plan on playing more of these final tables /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

Hand #255, 1000/2000 a100, 3 handed, T99219
Other stacks are 77, 72, so lead has been cut down. I raise QTo 4000 from SB. BB goes all-in, I fold. Deal talks start after this now that were pretty even.

Hand #261, 1500/3000 a150, 3 handed, T83969
Stacks are 89, 83, 75 and we agree on a three way chop of the $10,575 remaining pool. I was fine with this as it was late, I was tired, and the current chip leader is on the annual points board, so he's a very good player I'd rather not worry about tangling with. With that deal I end up with $3525, by far my biggest prize.

Hand #292, 1500/3000 a150, 3 handed, T71369
Money locked up, we're now playing for leadership points. I get As5c and raise to 24000. Next guy goes all-in and I call. He has QJ and rivers a straight and I'm out in third in the official standings.

This is my fifth final table in 26 full tourneys over five weeks playing these things seriously. A pace I don't think I can realistically hope to maintain. I don't want to get my hopes up. I still make a ton of mistakes and feel I'm kept alive only by other player's bigger mistakes. But it sure is nice for me and my bankroll while it lasts /forums/images/icons/cool.gif

[Greg (FossilMan)]

> it's down to 3 players. I have 111K stack, other two have
> 75K and 62. At this point the peanut gallery is calling
> for a deal. Unfortunately, I've never done a deal before
> so I'm not sure how it works out at this point.

If you're the chip leader, always ask for and/or accept a straight chip count deal. This type of deal is 100% fair when heads-up, but when 3- or more-handed, it favors the big stacks at the expense of the small stacks.

Let's say prizes are $10,000; 5,000; and 2,500. A chip count deal could give you:
111/248*17,500 = 7,833

A better method is to give each player 2500, and then split up the remaining 10,000 by chip count, which gives you:
111/248*10,000 + 2500 = 6,976

So, if you're chip leader, always suggest the first method. But, you should still accept the second method, because it still overestimates your equity.

Here's the best way.

You have 111 out of 248 chips. Thus, your chances of winning outright are ~44.8%, and you have an equity in the first prize of about $4,476. If you don't win, your chances of finishing second are about 35% (top of the head estimate), and you have an equity in second prize of about $1750. That leaves a 20.2% chance of third, and an equity in the third prize of about $505. Add up those three numbers, and your total equity is about:
$6731

And this is about $240 less than the chip count method would've given to you.

Now, the above calculations assumes equal skill among the remaining players, and that luck and current stack size are the only determining factors as to who finishes where. If you have a couple of opponents who are gambling it up in a big way, you can sometimes sit out a few hands until one of them eliminates the other, and move up that way. Or, if you have one or more opponents who is folding way too much, you can grind him down and gain more equity that way.

Most of the time, unless somebody is playing way too tight, once the blinds get really huge, the estimate that all skills are equal is usually not too far wrong. It's simply that the most common mistake most players make is to play too many hands. And, when the blinds are big and you're playing short-handed, it becomes difficult to incorrectly play too many hands.

Of course, you should always try to get even more on the deal. In my mind, I'm going to estimate the fair deal method number for me, as well as the chip count method number, and then ask for something even higher. When they say no, suggest the first chip count method (if you're a big stack). If they still say no, suggest the second method.

And congrats on your recent spate of high finishes.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[AceHigh]

"I still make a ton of mistakes and feel I'm kept alive only by other player's bigger mistakes."

Don't we all and aren't we all? lol /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[balt999]

Good job...keep up the good work....those Pokerstar tournament fields are some of the toughests I've ever seen, and I'll go much as to say, I'll compare it very favorably to the major live tournaments like WSOP, LA Poker Classic, Jack Binions tourneys in Miss, etc...

No matter how good anyone is...everyone is still a substancial underdog to win any tournaments...so the satisfaction of winning or finishing high should bring a great sense of accomplishment!

[mongeron]

Congratulations on the good finishes.

However, one comment on your postings. Sometimes it would be helpful for commenting, if you would tell the stack sizes of the opponents, when they raise. On some points you tell that, but I think it would be useful to know it otherwise too.

- mongeron

[cferejohn]

Really? I'm not sure I believe that, but I've only ever played in one live NL tournament. Makes me feel good about my 2 first place finishes though.