View Full Version : Party 10/20: KQo SB vs. CO steal
bdk3clash
11-30-2005, 09:45 PM
CO in this hand seems solid and straightforward and hasn't gotten out of line from what I can tell. His stats after >2600 hands are 29.9/23.4/1.9 and he appears to steal a whole lot of the time. He's not a particularly fun opponent to be out of position against.
Comments on each street appreciated, particularly the turn and river.
Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)
Preflop: bdk3clash is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">bdk3clash 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls.
Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">bdk3clash bets</font>, CO calls.
Turn: (4.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">bdk3clash bets</font>, CO calls.
River: (6.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
bdk3clash plans on check-folding.
I think you give up on the river (as you planned to) or give up on the turn. I'm generally not ready to give up on the turn, so I play it as you do. Facing a CO raise from a guy with his stats who is straightforward and in-line, you beat nothing in his range other than the very occassional KT and this guy checks that behind on the river in any event.
In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.
Spicymoose
12-01-2005, 01:34 PM
I hate these situations, and I think I normally just check fold on the river also. I'll try to give some reasons for firing again though...
You need to win 1 in 7 times.
He probably doesn't have a J, as I think he would probably raise the flop or turn.
Similarly, he might raise an 8 or 9 somewhere, so these have to be discounted as possibilities.
I would think that in this case he usually either has a PP, 44-77, or some sort of T, with the picked up straight draw on the turn. Maybe AT, KT. Although you are beating KT, if you check you have to fold, and he might bet it to try to fold out your A. There are 24 PP he could have, but 16 AT, and 12 KT. AT definetly has to be discounted, as he might cap preflop, and might play the flop differently, but even discounted I think there are at least 10 combos. Note, there are also other possibilities of hands he could have, but considering you only have to fold out a better hand a small amount of time, you really need to come up with about 60 other possibilities of holdings (even more for the times he has KT and would bet if checked to), and I think that would be hard to do.
Spicymoose
12-01-2005, 01:41 PM
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In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.
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Although I think that is an important stat, I don't think looking at this number alone can really help you. You need to think about what he might have, and out of the hands that beat you, you can weigh in his WTSD or FRB.
Arnfinn Madsen
12-01-2005, 01:45 PM
He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.
Spicymoose
12-01-2005, 01:54 PM
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Yes, agree with you. He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.
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Lol, I guess I wasn't to clear on my opinion in my post. I was saying that I think he has enough combos of AT or KT that will fold for us to make this bet.
Spicymoose
12-01-2005, 01:59 PM
I think this type of hand is a perfect example of one that can be solved pretty easily with a bit of math, and good estimations of play. Good poker players will often know this by intuation, and can be fairly spot on in their decisions of what to do, but sometimes they are wrong.
I am not very good at hand reading, or estimating how often people might play a certain way, but I think that there are plenty of people here who can do that just fine. I have outlined how to do the math, and I think if you come up with some reasonable estimates, your answer will show you quite clearly if this is a bet or check/fold. If the math comes out showing a close decision, then your reads become ever more important, but I think most of the time, even with somewhat inacurate (but at least close) estimates, your answer will show solidly enough what the right move is.
Estimations needed:
How often will he play an underpair the way he has?
How often will he play top pair the way he has?
How often will he play AT or KT the way he has?
How often will he play any other hand the way he has (anything I may have missed)?
How often will he fold AT to our river bet?
How often will he check KT if we check?
If he has called this far with his low PP, will he ever fold to a river bet?
These estimations don't have to be perfect! If you say 25%, but the answer is really 45%, yes, it makes a difference, but often you will get the same result. If you are that unsure, make two different set of assumptions, and see if they both come up with the same result.
I think throwing out intuative guesses here, although may be helpful, are not what we should be doing when the math is pretty simple.
Arnfinn Madsen
12-01-2005, 01:59 PM
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Yes, agree with you. He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.
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Lol, I guess I wasn't to clear on my opinion in my post. I was saying that I think he has enough combos of AT or KT that will fold for us to make this bet.
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Edited /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. Will look into it more closely when I am finished multitabling to see if I am wrong.
colgin
12-01-2005, 02:35 PM
I play it the same way (not necessarily a lot of comfort n that though /images/graemlins/frown.gif).
I think that there are a relatively few number of better hands that he might fold to one last river bet (e.g., AT, A7, etc.). However, for him to have called down thus far with these he would have been calling down with pretty weak draw which makes them less likely holdings IMO.
I think he is likely calling the river with any other kind of made hand (pocket pair, slit pair, etc.). So I think your overall bluffing equity (in light of the ratio of made hands he won't fold to weak draw hnads that beat you and that he might fold) is probably pretty low here.
I also think that he is unlikely to bluff you out of the pot with a worse hand if you check. Again, I think the number of such holdings that he could have here (e.g., KT) are pretty limited in combos given the way he played the hand and his stats. Also, it looks like you are check-calling the river against a somewhat scary board so I am not sure he is gong to take a shot against you even with missed draw when that is the hand he, in fact, has. More likely, if he bets it is for value.
Arnfinn Madsen
12-01-2005, 02:59 PM
Okay, he may have:
Calling hands:
15 combos of AQ (discounting AQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif)
15 combos of A8
15 combos of A4
15 combos of T9 (he will raise but that's not really relevant)
30 combos of pocket pairs 33, 55-77, TT (discounting 22 for unlikely preflop raise and potential cap of TT preflop)
Folding hands:
10 combos of AT (really 15, but I think it is a possible he would fold on the flop, discounting it to 10).
9 combos of KQ
He would fold KT on the flop.
So somehow I guess you were right (and I wrong). He will fold a bit more often than 1/7 (appx. 1/6). If we knew he would bluff when checked to I guess a bet-fold is correct functioning as a bluff protection (protecting our pot equity since we can't call with KQ but bet with it (very marginal situation /images/graemlins/smile.gif)) ; but as others point out I think he won't bluff very often and a check-fold is correct.
Spicymoose
12-01-2005, 04:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, he may have:
Calling hands:
15 combos of AQ (discounting AQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif)
15 combos of A8
15 combos of A4
15 combos of T9 (he will raise but that's not really relevant)
30 combos of pocket pairs 33, 55-77, TT (discounting 22 for unlikely preflop raise and potential cap of TT preflop)
Folding hands:
10 combos of AT (really 15, but I think it is a possible he would fold on the flop, discounting it to 10).
9 combos of KQ
He would fold KT on the flop.
So somehow I guess you were right (and I wrong). He will fold a bit more often than 1/7 (appx. 1/6). If we knew he would bluff when checked to I guess a bet-fold is correct functioning as a bluff protection (protecting our pot equity since we can't call with KQ but bet with it (very marginal situation /images/graemlins/smile.gif)) ; but as others point out I think he won't bluff very often and a check-fold is correct.
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Thanks for doing this. You could probably tweak your ranges slightly, but I think regardless we are going to come out with a bet. The PPs need to be discounted a bit, as many fold on the flop. He MIGHT call with AT, which needs to be factored in also (I dunno, 15% of the time?). KT never ever peels on the flop? Maybe not, but maybe 10%? A4 and A8 never raise the flop? Those probably need to be discounted a bit also. Anyways, I don't really want you to make all these adjustments, but just keep them in mind the next time you do an analysis like this. Most hands in your range arn't ever 100%, and although there are tons of hands which are 0%, you also have to allow for some with inbetween percentages.
I think this is a valuble method for certain situations, and we could all learn a lot by using it sometimes.
Victor
12-01-2005, 06:37 PM
i just pokerstoved for a likely range given the action and you are at like 19% equity. so you should????
colgin
12-01-2005, 08:02 PM
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i just pokerstoved for a likely range given the action and you are at like 19% equity. so you should????
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I assume you mean 19% equity on the end when all the cards are out and before anyone has acted.
I think the way that this info. can be used (in theory) to figure out the decisions here depends on how often villain wil bet his wnning hands compared to how often he will bluff with his losers.
Let's say the villain has the better hand 80% of the time as you say. Well, he may not valuebet all the time here depending on his holdings. Similarly, villain may bluff a busted draw a certain percentage of the time but not all the time. Assume villain will value bet with the top 75% of the hands that beat Hero but will only bluff 1/3 of the time that villain knows he is beat and can only win by bluffing. Then when villain bets, the likelihood of him value betting a wining hand to bluffing is about 8.5 to 1 given my math and I think Hero should fold. However, if villain will bluff more than 50% of the time then Hero should fold given the value betting assumptions.
While the value betting and bluffing percentages I believe should be independent, it may, as a practical matter, be OK to assume that anyone willing to bluff a significant protion of the time will also vlaue bet pretty reliably. Thus perhaps one should assume that most better hands are being bet and focus on how often you think villain bluffs. Here, if villain bets 100% of his winning hands for value than the breakven point for calling is when you thnk he will bluff more than about half his busted hands.
I'd check-call with a strong ace here no questions asked. You have to let this particular one go, though.
ArturiusX
12-01-2005, 09:02 PM
I favour check-folding the turn.
Jeff W
12-01-2005, 09:24 PM
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I'd check-call with a strong ace here no questions asked. You have to let this particular one go, though.
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What practical difference is there between a strong ace and KQ here? This opponent is smart enough to check ace high behind on the river, so KQ beats a bluff as often as AK does. The only minute difference is that KQ splits with another KQ.
With him putting in a PFR I'd kind of expect the As to be out here some reasonable portion of the time. If you were the origional PFR I'd have said to go nuts. My judgement may be off, so I could be wrong.
I get double idiot points for not realizing that by and large he won't bet an ace here. Call call call.
Spicymoose
12-01-2005, 10:23 PM
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I get double idiot points for not realizing that by and large he won't bet an ace here. Call call call.
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I am confused. Are you suggesting check/calling the river? I think that is awful.
There'll a lot of times where he'll peel one off, pick up a spade draw and then fire a desperation on the river. He's reasonably aggressive, hasn't given us reason to believe he has a hand yet, has a big range, and the board is pretty non-threatening. So yes.
The other option is to check-fold the turn (which is just bad against some players).
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15 combos of AQ
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I think a guy with his stats is capping AQ preflop.
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In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.
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And then I usually bet.
Arnfinn Madsen
12-02-2005, 04:25 PM
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15 combos of AQ
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I think a guy with his stats is capping AQ preflop.
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At second thoughts, I agree. It should be discounted to maybe 3-5 (some have much respect for the 3-bet)
me454555
12-02-2005, 07:40 PM
What about the times when someone called the turn w/a hand like Ax w/1 spade and might fold on the river? I didnt do the calculations but I think that could represent a significant portion of his hands. Hands like AK and AQ which he might fold to your river bet but check behind if you call. If someone could do the calculations on that I think it would be interesting to see what the stats say. Right now I feel its still 1) Check fold 2) bet/fold 3) check call
i think this is a good spot to bet again on the river, hoping he either has a worse hand or will fold a low pp or ace high 1 out of 7 times.
given the texture of the board on the turn, i don't think that his turn call necessarily commits him to showdown, as any spade, any Q, and any T would call the turn, and could be planning to fold the river UI
plus betting protects you being bluffed out by worse hands when you check
like you said, he opens a lot of hands (esp in steal position). he could have peeled the flop with anything, and called the turn with any spade, T, or Q
adamstewart
12-03-2005, 12:21 AM
Just a thought:
Don't you guys think villain would call the turn with any single /images/graemlins/spade.gif higher than about 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif??
If so, a river bet(bluff) may be in order here.
Other factors supporting a river bluff:
* he likely doesn't have a jack, or he would have raised at some point.
* he likely doesn't have a high pocket pair, or he would have raised at some point.
* the board has paired, making it less likley for him to have paired the board.
* the flop and turn were fairly draw heavy, and the river wouldn't have helped any of those draws.
I think I'd bet this river, expecting to take it down more than 1 in 7.5 times.
Adam
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Don't you guys think villain would call the turn with any single higher than about 7 ??
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In a HU situation there's basically no freaking difference between the 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and the 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. You could bet here hoping to fold an ace, but that's about it (and admittedly, a reasonable number of players would fold a weak naked A here).
adamstewart
12-03-2005, 08:32 AM
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Don't you guys think villain would call the turn with any single higher than about 7 ??
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In a HU situation there's basically no freaking difference between the 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and the 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. You could bet here hoping to fold an ace, but that's about it (and admittedly, a reasonable number of players would fold a weak naked A here).
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You also bet here because there's a chance you have the best hand. .... but you don't know it so if you check, you give villain opportunity to bluff you out of the pot (with say, his broken draw).
Secondly, there is a difference between 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, although the difference may be slight.
Adam
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