My 2 team parlay of the night

[Allin72]

Won my parlay last night with wake and illinois. Even though they were -EV whihc I am not positive yet what that means as I am new to the sports bettign world so bear with me. Tonight here are my plays along with reasoning, as i have been yelled at for not supplying reason.

Clippers +8.5 against Cleveland: I love this game so much because of the way that the Clippers match up here. Given Lebron is amazing, the cavs are slowly starting to die out. Lebron is carrying most of the load by himself, and it is goign to catch up with him soon. With Brand, Maggete, Mobley, and Cassell, I cannot see them losing this game at all, let alone by 8.5 points. Clippers are one of the hottest teams out there right now in my opinion, and i will take the points here.

Buffalo -5 vs Fresno State- Even though I know I lost out here from the spread at -3, I still like the bulls here at home. Ive watched several of their games, and they are a very good team looking for revenge from last years non ncaa tourney birth. Fresno has let up 150 points in their last two games, and I expect this good buffalo offense to continue this trend, and win this game by 10 points.

$20.00 to win 51.38 (Bodog)

Thoughts?

[Ken_AA]

Don't know anytihng aboutt he NBA but I think Buffalo is the pick here. I'm considering make the play if the line doesnt move anymore.

-EV means negative expected value, meaning over the long run you can expect to lose even if you win in the short run.

I'll be cheering for UB for you, and for the NBA to have a lockout so more college b-ball is on tv.

Ken

[Allin72]

hahaha thanks ken, agree about the nba

[ QUOTE ]
Even though they were -EV whihc I am not positive yet what that means as I am new to the sports bettign world so bear with me.

[/ QUOTE ]
It means that even if you were the world champ at picking plays and making bets, if you play them in a parlay instead of as individual games, you are guaranteed to lose money in the long run. Trust the forum on this one. Just make your plays as individual plays. Think about it, if parlays were better than individual bets, why would books offer them? Why would they offer you a way to make more money off of them?

[Allin72]

ok, so i should play each seperately?

[llabb]

I agree that LAC are getting too many points, but it's still a tough one to play. I'd probably lay off that side.

Cle is very good at home, while LAC have only been okday. And it seems to me that LeBron is actually getting enough help. Gooden has stepped up and is giving you 12&10, very solid. This has cut into Z's #'s, but he's still solid, much better than most other C's in the league. Hughes is not quite as good as last year, but is still giving good all-around play and is a good second option. It's the bench that needs help. Damon Jones has been sucking, and Donyell needs to get back to his play from the start of the season.

Anyway, I think it could hit, as I think a fairer line is around -6 or so, but too dangerous for me to play. Which is saying a lot, since I play a ton of games.

[Allin72]

Can anyone explain to me how to tell if somethign is a +ev pr -ev bet? is it like a math thing?

[llabb]

For individual plays, it's usually just someone saying "+EV" based on their own estimations and feel for the game. For parlays, middles, scalps, etc., it's a math thing.

For you, the answer is that parlays don't pay you what they should. You make less when you win, and lose more often. Better to just play it straight. That said, there is some value in teasers. Others can tell you more about that, particularly teasers on and off the 3 and 7 in football, but I don't know much about football. Teasers in basketball are decent in some situations, for example, taking two home favs around -5 to -7 or so and teasing them for -1 to -2. Can be solid when you are firm on both teams winning, but uncertain about the points and back door covers. Much more value than parlaying the moneylines.

By the way, like I said, the Clips could hit, but it's by no means a lock. To me, another way of looking at it is:

Snow < Cassell (injured)
Hughes > Mobley
LeBron >>> Magette
Gooden << Brand
Z >> Kaman
Cle home >> LAC road

Cle ahead by a factor of 5 >'s. Too tough to take for that reason, and that's coming from someone who was on LAC over Min last night on both the pts and ML for a nice score.

[Lori]

I don't like touching Cleveland games much because LeBron is a monster.

Some teams you know are going to give you two chances to cover 8-9 points (like being 14+ ahead and saving people for the next night) but LeBron just won't let himself get taken off the court.

For that reason I'm a little more wary on big Cleveland lines than on other sides as you have less chance of the back door if you are wrong.

Just some random thoughts.

Lori

[Lori]

A typical line would be -110 for the sake of argument for one bet.

Betting 110 on the first part of the parlay would give you 100 profit, plus your 100 back, so you would have 210 units.

If you then invested that 210 at -110, you would return 401 units (191 profit and your stake back).

The total odds are therefore 291 profit for 110 outlay which is 2.64-1

Your bet at bodog returns 51.38-20.00 which is only 2.57-1 (Dividing through by 20 to get that number) so you're getting worse than -110 on each section of the bet.

Lori

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
Cle ahead by a factor of 5 >'s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Allin72]

On this note I think I am just going to take Buffalo. My question is am i better off laying 17 to win 15 here with the spread of -5, or should i take buffalo money line -240 ( I would do 24 to win just 10) Thanks for help....

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
I expect this good buffalo offense to continue this trend, and win this game by 10 points.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please note I don't know which is the best of the two bets in that game, and I know nothing at all about the game in question. Literally nothing. However from your own opinion I think you're better off taking the -5 and living a little dangerously.

In the absence of any hard data (hopefully someone will help you out with some, if anyone has a database) I would guess from instinct that the -240 is a bad bet.

-240 has to win 71% of the time to be profitable

while 15/17 has to win 53% of the time.

I believe that means you should only take the -240 if you think it will be exactly 1,2,3 or 4 (and allow for 5 too, although it counts half) 18% of the time.

This may be wrong, I'm trying to get it done quickly in case it's nearly the start time and there can be traps in this kind of logic if done in a hurry.

Lori

[Allin72]

im going to take the points, i think they are goign to win double digits, 17 to win 15 thanks

[Lori]

All the best /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Lori