Sklansky on Poker, justifiable call?

[Stork]

This one is for Sklansky. I was checkin out some of the book excerpts, and in the Sklansky on Poker excerpt, you have an example of calling because of extra outs:

"A three-card flush combined with an inside straight draw preferably combined with an overcard. All of these chances may very well add up to an easy call. The other day, in fact, I called a bet and a raise cold with just such a hand because of the size of the pot. The pot had been raised before the flop and seven players called. I called with
[Ac-3c]
The flop came
[Qc-5h-2d]
Someone bet and someone raised. I called cold which surprised many people. The possibility of catching a 4, an ace, or two running clubs," however -- any one of which I thought would probably win for me - made it worth it."

A bet and a raise cold? The raise cuts your odds of just calling the one bet in half, and suggests that the better and the raiser have pretty good hands themselves. Also, if you catch an Ace, do you really think your 3 kicker will hold up? With seven people seeing the flop there has got to be another Ace out there. Also, your inside straight draw won't always be good since your drawing to the low end. And if the board pairs, its very possible somebody filled. Also, the preflop and flop betting means that there is definetly going to be betting on the turn, so your not really getting odds if you miss the turn. Even on the flop, there might be a reraise behind you. Also, before the flop, you called a bet and a raise with an A3suited?
On the flop really the only safe draw is the flush, and that is just a runner-runner, which might even get busted if the board pairs. Is that flop call really justified?

[Dynasty]

Not only is the flop call justified, there is good arguement to be made for 3-betting.

You have a very common hand reading problem- you fear that big hands are up against you and your outs are tainted with little justification.

if you catch an Ace, do you really think your 3 kicker will hold up?

Yes. Are you expecting another Ace with a worse kicker to call two bets cold behind you? Is AJ sticking around? In fact, the primary reason for making it 3-bets on the flop is to ensure every other Ace folds (except AQ of course) to clean up your outs.

your inside straight draw won't always be good since your drawing to the low end.

So, you're expecing 63 to be out there when it was two bets before the flop and then to call two bets on the flop. This is the essence of big hand paranoia. There's absolutely no reason to believe that you won't win this pot if you make your straight.

if the board pairs, its very possible somebody filled.

Why is that "very possible"? There is no reason to believe somebody flopped a set simply because the flop has been bet and raised.

You are only considering the possiblity that your opponents have hands which have you crushed. You are not considering the much more likely possibility that you are drawing very live.

[Stork]

Yes, you're right about the str8 draw. I would be pretty paranoid to think a 6 3 would stick around. But, as far as the fullhouse is concerned, i think that is still possible if the board pairs and I actually think AJ *would* stick around /forums/images/icons/grin.gif maybe I'm thinking too loosely...

I like you're 3 bet. I would probably 3bet it before I call, but as I said I would still probably fold

[Dynasty]

I actually think AJ *would* stick around maybe I'm thinking too loosely

If you can't have a reasonable certainty that your Ace will be good, then folding becomes the best option (unless you're simply close to having the odds for the gut-shot).

[Stork]

OK Dynasty, but what about the preflop call? /forums/images/icons/shocked.gif

[Ed Miller]

IMO, this is an easy call on the flop. The pot is large and your hand has too much value to be folding.

[Ed Miller]

Sklansky probably didn't call two cold... he probably called one bet and it was raised behind him.

[Dynasty]

I agree. It's likely that it was raised behind him or that he called the raise from one of the blinds.

[rtrombone]

Stork, there are 7 big bets in the pot before the flop. At the flop there is a bet and a raise. Assuming the bettor calls the raise, you are getting 9 to 1 on your cold call. The odds of a 4 falling, giving you an almost sure winner, are about 11 to 1. Taking into account the future action you will get if you hit, the cold call is undoubtedly correct.

Now, it is possible that it's going to get capped here and you will be putting in 5 bets to see the turn. But if you're going to allow for this, you also have to allow for the possibility of calls from people behind you. If 4 of you see the turn for 5 bets each, you've now gotten about 5 to 1 on your flop calls. However, you are guaranteed tremendous action if you hit. If all these guys have a piece of the flop, they will almost certainly put in two bets each at the turn. So in this scenario, your immediate pot odds are reduced but your implied odds are probably not too bad.

IMHO, I wouldn't cold call if I expected it to get capped. But if I thought it would cost only two bets and/or there would be other cold callers behind me, I call. As with so many things in poker, it depends on the texture of the game.

[Tommy Angelo]

What gets me is that when a typical opponent makes this Sklansky-approved play, they get branded as idiots and morons. That is, when they hit.

Tommy

[1800GAMBLER]

Ok add to these distant looking calls, here's a hand that just came up in a tournment i was in. I've had enough of the short-term of tournments now too. Anyhow:

I'm dealt T /forums/images/icons/heart.gif T /forums/images/icons/club.gif 5 handed small blinds and i raise preflop, all call.

5BB in the pot.

Flop:

T /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

I bet out, 3 callers.

Turn:

3 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

I bet out, 2 callers.

Flop:

5 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

I bet, get raised, 3 bet, 4 bet.

I lose to the backdoor flush of

A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

I moan to myself and think what are the chances of that considering the only out other than runner runner is a K.

So hey i asked twodimes.


<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Qh 173 17.47 817 82.53 0 0.00 0.175
Tc Td 817 82.53 173 17.47 0 0.00 0.825

</pre><hr>

So on the flop 5.7:1 underdog. I thought it would be a lot less. So on the flop the player was getting the odds and as well on the turn. /forums/images/icons/frown.gif

Again, on that flop had the player thought i had just a pair of jacks it would be almost 50/50.

[Luke]

I agree that as it is, the flop cold call is justified and 3-betting is a reasonable possibility. But what if the 5 and 2 were of the same suit (not clubs of course)? Would this cause anyone to fold on the flop?

[leon]

You don't clearly explain the order of action on the flop, but at least you realize your opponent was correct to call on the flop. You don't mention where he is, but even if he acts immediately after you on the flop he is getting 11:1 on his call with overcards, a backdoor flush draw and an inside straight draw. He has the odds to call with the inside straight draw alonw (once you factor in implied odds). If he's in a later position he's getting even better odds b/c of the other callers.

I might even have raised the turn with his hand depending on my position, having picked up 8 more outs. This could serve to drive out AK and the like, cleaning up my outs. Just so you realize the player was correct to call from the flop on.

I don't know exactly how two dimes works- did you simply input the hands and simulate to the river, or did you input the flop with the hands, and simulate?

At this stage in a tournament, you might have considered three things-
a) not raising from the sb with a vunerable hand, knowing that you'll get called all around
b) not raising from the sb, trying to keep the pot small, to make future calls incorrect
c) not betting out and trying for a check raise on the flop, to better thin the field. Mind you, I don't routinely play sets this way in limit hold em, but in a late stage of a tournament it might be correct, as additional emphasis is placed on maximizing the likelihood you'll win the pot, justifying the risk of giving a free card.

Leon

[MCS]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Not only is the flop call justified, there is good arguement to be made for 3-betting.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. When I first read that, I was like, "What the hell?" But then I read the explanation and it made total sense.

If I really had this hand in a live game, I'd probably just fold without a ton of thought.

I suppose I still have a thing or two to learn after all /forums/images/icons/grin.gif