If there was ever a time to fold a boat... (NL400 6/max)

[ansky451]

NL 400, 6 max. Villain seems TAG and solid-- although that read is only after playing w/ him for like 5-10 minutes. I've had reads like that change after much longer times playing with seemingly good players, until they display some horrific poker.

Anyways, Effective stacks are 450 ish.

I pot raise to 14 UTG, folds to SB, he raises to 40 ish, folds to me I call (good? I usually just fold unimproved on flop, so I'm clearly getting good implied odds.)

Flop TJJ 2 spades (80ish in pot) He bets 60 I call.

Turn 2 of spades (3 spades up) (200 in pot) He checks, I bet 100, he thinks for 10 seconds and calls.

River-- offsuit Ace. Villain Pushes for ~250

I know theres so much in the pot...

[beavens]

um, what hand are you holding?

[scdavis0]

your hand plz

[bobman0330]

Got to be TT

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Got to be TT

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, its tens. My bad.


Nice read /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[beavens]

i would be betting more than 1/2 pot on the turn.. more like 2/3-3/4 or PSB

[scdavis0]

tens.. oh god insta call please

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
i would be betting more than 1/2 pot on the turn.. more like 2/3-3/4 or PSB

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldnt we assume villain has:

1) AA/KK no spade- a pot sized bet- there is a very good chance he folds

2) AA/KK spade, he is way more likely to call 100, than 200, and he commits more chips if a spade falls.

30 AK w/ a spade- He calls 100 but not 200 probably, either way he is drawing dead, so I think 100 is better.

Where am I off?

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
tens.. oh god insta call please

[/ QUOTE ]

I know.. but villain basically is announcing he has AA...

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
know.. but villain basically is announcing he has AA...

[/ QUOTE ]
Or KQ...

[JMP300z]

or AK

[Big_Jim]

Raise the flop.

He ain't gonna believe you.

[ansky451]

Uh, notice the PF action? Notice the 3 spades up? notice the paired board? I think KQo is all but impossible. I think a real question is, is AK spades possible here.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
or AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we see AK here.

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would be betting more than 1/2 pot on the turn.. more like 2/3-3/4 or PSB

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldnt we assume villain has:

1) AA/KK no spade- a pot sized bet- there is a very good chance he folds

2) AA/KK spade, he is way more likely to call 100, than 200, and he commits more chips if a spade falls.

30 AK w/ a spade- He calls 100 but not 200 probably, either way he is drawing dead, so I think 100 is better.

Where am I off?

[/ QUOTE ]

at this point i dont think the difference of $50 more is going to matter..

[GrunchCan]

Maybe he's hoping you're good enough to know that. If he really had AA and knows that you have a hand that's worth some action, won't he try to check-raise here sometimes?

I just think there's > 0% chance that the opponent is bluffing here. How often does he need to bluff in order for a call to be +EV?

[scdavis0]

he can have any two spades.. i'm not reading too much into pre flop action cuz the guys in this game jack it up like crazy pre flop

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
he can have any two spades.. i'm not reading too much into pre flop action cuz the guys in this game jack it up like crazy pre flop

[/ QUOTE ]
eh. not too much really.

[scdavis0]

ok then fold.. he has AA

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop.

He ain't gonna believe you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you want to let AK off the hook that easily? I don't.

[Big_Jim]

Do you wanna stack off on the flop with AA/KK? I do.

[ahnuld]

we see AK with one spade alot here. I insta call. Anwone who wants to fold is crazy. we only need to win once in 3.5 times. I promise we are ahead at least 1 in three times and therefore insta call that shiiiiiit

[yvesaint]

yea dude call this is AsKs, AK w/one spade like a bajillion times here

also bet more on the turn

also raise flop

[ansky451]

FWIW, I think this is AA more than it is AK. I'm not saying that it isn't AK enough to call here with comfort, but I think I will be shown AA here a lot.

[niko421]

he is not announcing AA... AJ is is very real, Aspade. I don't think he has AA... and if he does.. he paid(no implied) for his longshot draw. It is a short handed game, so pre flop raising standards are much less then in a full ring. The only hand I fear is AJ, or KQ(is great for us), both of which are real raising hands in short handed games. I call, and hope he slow played the flush... which is what it looks like... appeared weak on turn, then called. Or a hand like QQ KK or AQ AK.

[ansky451]

I think AJ is also all but impossible. Listen, its 6 max, and its nl400, but people don't repop preflop OOP with KQ or AJ, almost ever.

If he is the type that would do this, I think I would have noticed by now if he was reraising with all sorts of crappy hands pf.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he can have any two spades.. i'm not reading too much into pre flop action cuz the guys in this game jack it up like crazy pre flop

[/ QUOTE ]
eh. not too much really.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is party...yes they do /images/graemlins/smile.gif...

-JP

[ansky451]

NL 400 for the most part, is a loose passive game. It isn't high- or low enough- for it to be super aggressive.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
he is not announcing AA... AJ is is very real, Aspade. I don't think he has AA... and if he does.. he paid(no implied) for his longshot draw. It is a short handed game, so pre flop raising standards are much less then in a full ring. The only hand I fear is AJ, or KQ(is great for us), both of which are real raising hands in short handed games. I call, and hope he slow played the flush... which is what it looks like... appeared weak on turn, then called. Or a hand like QQ KK or AQ AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to see monsters under the bed, but I can see playing JJ this way. He wants you to think he has AK with a single spade (or maybe he does) because you get a standard CB followed a check/call on the turn and a push on the river ace. Smells like AK, but I suspect it might be a monster.

Having said that I still call with TT because I am not disciplined enough (yet) to lay this hand down.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
NL 400 for the most part, is a loose passive game. It isn't high- or low enough- for it to be super aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we playing int he same 2/4 6 max party?...PF theres a lot of RR'ing, a lot of crap minraises on the flop, a lot of autobets when you check the turn?

-JP

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
NL 400 for the most part, is a loose passive game. It isn't high- or low enough- for it to be super aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we playing int he same 2/4 6 max party?...PF theres a lot of RR'ing, a lot of crap minraises on the flop, a lot of autobets when you check the turn?

-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of those except the preflop reraising part. I just don't see it all that often.

[billyjex]

Tough hand. Folding is probably correct, but I probably never do. Of course, this asssumes your read is correct and this guy is somewhat sane.

[iceman5]

I dont understand the purpose of posting a hand asking for advice and then arguing with every piece of advice you get.

Youre playing poker the best you can. You ask for advice about tough hands like everyone does, but then you disagree with everyones advice.

Most of the people who are responding are playing in these same games that you are, so either play the game in your own little vaccuum and dont post.....or post your hands and open your mind to other people poker experiences and maybe you'll learn something.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont understand the purpose of posting a hand asking for advice and then arguing with every piece of advice you get.

Youre playing poker the best you can. You ask for advice about tough hands like everyone does, but then you disagree with everyones advice.

Most of the people who are responding are playing in these same games that you are, so either play the game in your own little vaccuum and dont post.....or post your hands and open your mind to other people poker experiences and maybe you'll learn something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not disagreeing, I'm exploring other possibilities. I didn't ask people if NL400 players reraise AJ preflop, that's just something that people have said, which I disagree with.

I didn't disagree with people who said this is AK a lot of the time, I merely question the frequency with which I would be shown that hand.

Get off my case.

[savman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
tens.. oh god insta call please

[/ QUOTE ]

I know.. but villain basically is announcing he has AA...

[/ QUOTE ]

first, i think folding this river is bad. second, if he is a thinking player (or whatever read u had he was decent) why would he want to play AA this way. if he was pushing the river with AA what hands would villain expect to call often? all underfulls, flushes, most J's. (i guess the str8 sometimes) of these hands how many are NOT betting the river for value? plus he loses value the times u have a weak j or weak flush and fold or u are on air and are not allowed to bluff at the pot.

Check my math but isn't it closer to 2.5 to 1? 650 pot, 250 more to call the bet...I maybe wrong still not real quick with the math...esp in the fly.

Z /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[soah]

Folding here is just scared poker. The pot is too big and your hand is too strong to let it go. People do bizarre things in big pots. AA with a spade would generally either bet the turn, or call your bet fairly quickly. On the other hand, his turn play is very consistent with AsKx or something. Pushing the river here with AK might not be the best play, but most poker players do make bad plays. I'm actually not even sure that pushing would be too terrible... something along the lines of "the pot is too big for me to fold this hand, and he will call a bet with a wider range than he will bet with, so it's better for me to just bet myself." On the other hand, he could also have KK and be thinking "omg, I bet he has the ace of spades! Maybe if I push he'll give me credit for the jack and fold!" On the other hand, he might have a "slowplayed" trip jacks if he had gotten out of line preflop.

There are just way too few ways you're beaten here and there's lots of money in the pot. I'm not going to lose any sleep over paying off a half pot river bet when someone hits a two-outer on me.

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, notice the PF action?

[/ QUOTE ]
My response was right after I woke up and I didn't consider the preflop action. Preflop action does rule out KQ. I responded to both of your posts this morning and am a little annoyed that you chose to ignore one and act like a bitch in the other. You are no longer worth my time.

[Bukem_]

This post is a joke from soemone who knows they go broke here 100% right? right? right? right?right? right? right? right? right? right?v right?right? vright?right?v

[Vavavoom]

I think this is JJ...

Not QQ or KK......Preflop looks a lot like AA...But I think u see JJ here more than AA.....

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not disagreeing, I'm exploring other possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no you're not. You're disagreeing with everything anyone tells you. Now you're disagreeing about disagreeing. You took the time to solicit advice about this hand then you took the time to explain to every single person who replied that they were wrong, wrong, wrong. Every hand someone else tried to put the villain on is "impossible" and there's no way he reraised pre-flop with . You've also taken the time to explain to everyone how, no, there isn't much pre-flop reraising (ha ha) because the $400 no limit six-max game on Party is loose-passive (again: ha ha).

Of course, not everyone is suggesting hands for the villain; some people are suggesting how you could have played the hand differently. For instance, someone suggested a flop raise and someone else suggested a bigger turn bet. No problem, though, because you were able to explain to both of them that they were wrong and that the action you took was actually the correct one.

Reading through this thread, it is obvious that you know [i]exactly which hands your opponent can and cannot have and you also know exactly how to play against those hands. Clearly, you posted this hand so that others could learn from you. Thank you for your contribution.

[ QUOTE ]

Get off my case.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, now you're just being a tool.

SpaceAce

Insta call.

[rachelwxm]

Despite all the controversial I still learn alot from this thread. Peace.