missed value or allright?

[Cancuk]

Villian is pretty passive, I haven't seen him raise preflop yet. No PT stats.

Missed value or allright?

Hero has 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif on the button.

Preflop: UTG limps, MP limps, CO folds, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villian checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, Villian raises, all fold, Hero calls.

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villian bets, Hero raises, Villian raises, Hero caps.

River: A /images/graemlins/club.gif

Villian bets, Hero...

Thoughts?

cheers

[gharp]

I'd probably stick one more raise in on the river. I'm not worried about the flush after the turn action. I'm expecting to see him turn over Q9 pretty often here -- if he has a bigger set...oh well.

[jba]

raise/call a 3bet. Q9 no good.

is he really going to c/r the flop like that with QQ? yeah maybe but I'm throwing another bet in.

[ipp147]

Hi Cancuk,

It depends on the opponent. His flop c/raise clearly looks like it is for protection. He clearly doesn't just have the club draw when he 3 bets the turn so what hand range do we have him with here (if he is a passive player)

99,Q9,AQ,QQ seems reasonable. I don't mind a raise but I would hate to be 3 bet. I just call.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

99,Q9,AQ,QQ seems reasonable. I don't mind a raise but I would hate to be 3 bet. I just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

we are ahead of 18 and behind 6. discount QQ a bit because even really passive players will raise that sometimes. now consider how difficult it will be for this guy to three bet with a flush staring him in the face.

I would hate to be 3bet too but that doesn't make raising wrong; depends on how often it happens, doesn't it??

[StellarWind]

This betting pattern suggests a weak made hand on the flop that really liked the six: 66, Q6, 96. Of course we have no real read so it's entirely possible that he always had a good hand.

Being wrong means being 3-bet so you are giving 2-1 by raising here. 3-betting the turn is pushing two pair pretty hard and now he is back for more despite the scary-looking ace of flushes. I call.

[tallstack]

I would raise the river and call the 3-bet. His check-raise on the flop sounds a lot like 2-pair. I don't see how pocket queens would not raise preflop. Pocket nines are the only other hand that you are behind. I also don't see the 6 on the turn as changing anything - you should be ahead here as well. If the river ace helped him it is only because he badly misplayed a flush draw, or he limped PF with aces. If he has trips then you might not be facing a 3 bet. If he has 2-pair then he likely will call your raise. If he made his flush then you have to pay to see it. Overall, I think that 2-pair makes the most sense and he will pay you off enough to justify the raise.

Dave