Critique this AA hand for me

[Terrabon98]

10/20 table, I am dealt red AA in CO. UTG, who sat down one orbit ago and hasn't really played a hand yet, is the villian in this hand.

PREFLOP: UTG raises, I 3-bet, everyone folds, he caps, I call

FLOP: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG bets, I raise, UTG calls

TURN: K /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG checks, I check

RIVER: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG bets, I call


Thoughts?

[Spicymoose]

Tough one for me. I think I might call the flop, and raise the turn. Initially I wanted to bet the turn, but I realize there are plenty of hands that are now beating us. On the other hand, we are still ahead of a bunch, so maybe raise. We also have hidden outs if we are behind.

Gotta call the river.

[ddubois]

Board: Qh Jc 8h Kc

Hand 1: 62.9464 % 59.25% 03.69% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 37.0536 % 33.36% 03.69% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Hand 1: 58.2860 % 54.73% 03.55% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 41.7140 % 38.16% 03.55% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

Hand 1: 56.5599 % 51.86% 04.70% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 43.4401 % 38.74% 04.70% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Hand 1: 48.9268 % 44.19% 04.73% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 51.0732 % 46.34% 04.73% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

[josh1122]

I like the flop bet as this board was likely to hit him and he may 3bet allowing you to raise the turn.

I definately bet the turn, and then probably call down if he check/raises.

The way you played it the river is a must call.

[Terrabon98]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop bet as this board was likely to hit him and he may 3bet allowing you to raise the turn.

I definately bet the turn, and then probably call down if he check/raises.

The way you played it the river is a must call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't make this clear in my initial post, but my main concern is with the turn. Obviously that impacts how the rest of the hand is played, but there's no way I'm folding this river for one bet ever.

[Zele]

I don't find the turn anywhere near scary enough not to bet, but his river outs to a win or a split make checking plenty scary.

If you get CRed, I don't even consider folding without a very clear read.

[Terrabon98]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't find the turn anywhere near scary enough not to bet, but his river outs to a win or a split make checking plenty scary.

If you get CRed, I don't even consider folding without a very clear read.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, I actually thought the exact opposite on this hand. I wasn't too worried about him catching cards if he was behind, and I was afraid I was well behind if he check-raised.

Let me ask you, what range of hands do you put him on? I put him on AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AKo, JJ, 1010, maybe AQs...I'm alraedy behind a majority of these combos, especially considering that I hold two of the aces

If I do get checkraised, you are right, I do have to call down. So I'm losing 3BB the majority of the time here if behind, which I think I am a majority of the time

[Zele]

It's hard to give a range to a total unknown, but let's assume at least he's a somewhat rational non-LAG, and he has a similar opinion of you.

I'd add 99, any AQ, AJ and KQ (more weight on suited, but unsuited is far from unreasonable), and JTs.

I don't see this as a "way ahead/way behind" sitution. It's more like a "somewhat ahead/decently behind" situation.

[mscags]

I like it. The only capping hand that you are beating is AK. AK is only drawing to the other two kings to beat you. Every other capping hand you have 6 outs to beat. I want to see the river here and getting checkraise on the turn here really sucks because honestly I don't know if I can call trying to suck out and then fold the river UI. I think this hand is played great in my opinion.

Scags

[ QUOTE ]
Let me ask you, what range of hands do you put him on? I put him on AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AKo, JJ, 1010, maybe AQs...I'm alraedy behind a majority of these combos, especially considering that I hold two of the aces

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if I'm wrong because I don't know much about pokerstove, but if we take a look at the results ddubois gave us:

Hand 1: 58.2860 % 54.73% 03.55% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 41.7140 % 38.16% 03.55% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

We have 58% equity here right? Doesn't this mean we gotta bet this turn?

[Lost Wages]

It's not that simple when we take into account that betting will often mean that you lose 2 bets when behind and gain 1 (or none) when ahead.

Lost Wages

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it. The only capping hand that you are beating is AK.

[/ QUOTE ]
Man, no way - this is not full ring. At least AQ and TT caps. TT calls the flop because of the gutshot and the set outs, and TT picks up an OESD on the turn, so you have a value bet aganist both those hands. I agree if you get CRed it sucks (although AK will CR), but I checking the turn looks like monsters under the bed to me.