Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair [Archive]

ninjaunderwear

11-30-2005, 02:33 PM

SB is tight and a bit passive pre-flop, but more aggresive post-flop at 14.3/5.91/2.07 after 575 hands.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Comments afterwards.

sean c

11-30-2005, 02:56 PM

Bets and calls down if you think villian will c/r with a worse pp or draw or bets and folds if you think villian will only c/r with a 9 or straight. Checking is a bad option IMO.

Fantam

11-30-2005, 02:59 PM

I think you have a choice between bet the turn and fold to a raise, or check behind on the turn and call the river for the same cost of 1 bet. Your best choice is probably read dependant IMHO.

So if you thought that your opponent was loose passive, I would sugggest betting the turn to protect against overcards and folding to a raise, as a lot of players like to slowplay trips on the flop and attempt a check raise on the turn.

However against a tight agressive oppenent, I would prefer to check behind on the turn and call the river, to avoid having to call a turn raise in case my opponent was semi-bluff raising with a weaker pair or flush draw.

11-30-2005, 03:02 PM

I'd bet here. I think it's more likely that he has overcards and is hoping to spike top pair than it is that he called a raise OOP with a hand that includes a 9 - especially given how tight he plays pre-flop.

charlie_t_jr

11-30-2005, 03:04 PM

Bets. If you get c/r...I don't know, would he pull off a c/r bluff? I think you'd have to call down.

sean c

11-30-2005, 03:12 PM

This reminds me some of the turn play section in HPFAP. DS talks about frequently checking the turn with strong hands in order to c/r your opponents and have them fear a turn c/r enough to give you free cards when you need them. Pretty good stuff. I am not saying this opponent is that advanced but by checking you are giving him the best of it.

11-30-2005, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bets and calls down if you think villian will c/r with a worse pp or draw or bets and folds if you think villian will only c/r with a 9 or straight. Checking is a bad option IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think checking is an ok option if we don't know how to react to a c/r from the villian. Yes we give a free card to KQ or AJ or something that has 6 outs, put the post is small and we make that up by not being face with a c/r and maybe getting a bet on the river from a KQ/AJ hand that might have folded the turn.

If I had a strong read on villian though and felt more comfortable with what do with a c/r I think we have to bet though.

WalkAmongUs

11-30-2005, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This reminds me some of the turn play section in HPFAP. DS talks about frequently checking the turn with strong hands in order to c/r your opponents and have them fear a turn c/r enough to give you free cards when you need them. Pretty good stuff. I am not saying this opponent is that advanced but by checking you are giving him the best of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This advice is very useful for squeezing extra EV out of people as well as checking behind on the turn HU to induce a bluff. These are obviously situation and opponent specific. Both have helped me get a little more out of people at 2/4 (when I use them correctly).

In this hand I would bet the turn to avoid giving a free card. theres too many overcards to my pair of 9s to risk having it checked through.

If opponent is straightforward post-flop, you have an easy fold to a check-raise.

If villain likes to get tricky, call the check-raise, see what comes on the turn and most likely call down.

sean c

11-30-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bets and calls down if you think villian will c/r with a worse pp or draw or bets and folds if you think villian will only c/r with a 9 or straight. Checking is a bad option IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think checking is an ok option if we don't know how to react to a c/r from the villian. Yes we give a free card to KQ or AJ or something that has 6 outs, put the post is small and we make that up by not being face with a c/r and maybe getting a bet on the river from a KQ/AJ hand that might have folded the turn.

If I had a strong read on villian though and felt more comfortable with what do with a c/r I think we have to bet though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Tehox i couldn't disagree more. What are we so worried about here getting outplayed or moved off the best hand? No reason to give this guy infinite odds to draw or not gain value from a worse made hand than ours. FWIW if he is drawing he pays a bet on the turn not on the river. If he misses i doubt he bluffs at the river all that often into a pot this size. If he does c/r and hero decides to call down he gains good info on how this guy plays post flop what he calls open raises with from the sb etc etc which could help him later in a pot much larger than this one. Checking because you fear getting check/raised here is just bad poker IMO.

ninjaunderwear

11-30-2005, 04:02 PM

Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

sean c

11-30-2005, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Think of it this way if behind you have between 2 and four outs you are almost never drawing dead here. Some % of the times you are actually ahead here so calling down doesn't actually cost you 2bb's. -EV probably but not anywhere near 2bb's worth. Also you gain important info on villian's post flop play which you must not have since you are asking what to do here. On the flip side folding costs you the same 1bb that checking the turn and calling his river bet does and the pot is not large. Sometimes you fold the best hand when playing optimal poker. Weigh the pluses and minuse of each and decide what you feel is best.

11-30-2005, 04:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bets and calls down if you think villian will c/r with a worse pp or draw or bets and folds if you think villian will only c/r with a 9 or straight. Checking is a bad option IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think checking is an ok option if we don't know how to react to a c/r from the villian. Yes we give a free card to KQ or AJ or something that has 6 outs, put the post is small and we make that up by not being face with a c/r and maybe getting a bet on the river from a KQ/AJ hand that might have folded the turn.

If I had a strong read on villian though and felt more comfortable with what do with a c/r I think we have to bet though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Tehox i couldn't disagree more. What are we so worried about here getting outplayed or moved off the best hand? No reason to give this guy infinite odds to draw or not gain value from a worse made hand than ours. FWIW if he is drawing he pays a bet on the turn not on the river. If he misses i doubt he bluffs at the river all that often into a pot this size. If he does c/r and hero decides to call down he gains good info on how this guy plays post flop what he calls open raises with from the sb etc etc which could help him later in a pot much larger than this one. Checking because you fear getting check/raised here is just bad poker IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey seanc, in your first post you say either bet/fold or bet/call depending on read. But all we have it PT numbers. So you're saying bet/call is your default against a player with these numbers?

Anyways I think betting the turn here is correct against most opponents and I would bet if I had played this hand. Not sure what I would do if c/r though.

But I do think that checking behind the turn is a viable option, especially against a tricky/aggressive opponent (that for example might c/r us with trips or flushdraw or PP), for the reasons I stated above, though your points are well taken. And with JJ I think we have to worry a lot more about giving free card than if we have KK.

So basically I'm just clarifying that I'm not saying "Check because you fear getting check/raised". I'm saying that check b/c it might be the more +EV play, though personally I would need a better read that villian is that type of tricky aggressive player other than PT numbers to check behind here.

11-30-2005, 04:17 PM

charlie_t_jr

11-30-2005, 04:17 PM

I think you have to call down. I think there's a reasonable chance he could be semi-bluffing with diamonds+overs or betting a worse 2pair.

tiltaholic

11-30-2005, 04:19 PM

bet the turn and call it down.
river a J just to rub it in.

11-30-2005, 04:27 PM

u can probably rule out him having 9s since he's so tight preflop.

bet the turn. if c/r'ed call him down. i'd be surprised if he has a 9 here.

cold_cash

11-30-2005, 04:28 PM

I would bet the turn.

I think checking is only good if you're sure this guy will always fold a worse hand to a bet, always bluff at the river if you check it through on the turn, and never check-raise with a worse hand. That's a pretty big parlay.

I'd also call it down after he raises. I think you'll see 77-TT or 6x more than 20% of the time. After all, you've probably got AK, right?

11-30-2005, 04:30 PM

11-30-2005, 04:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the turn.

I think checking is only good if you're sure this guy will always fold a worse hand to a bet, always bluff at the river if you check it through on the turn, and never check-raise with a worse hand. That's a pretty big parlay.

I'd also call it down after he raises. I think you'll see 77-TT or 6x more than 20% of the time. After all, you've probably got AK, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with pretty much everything you say and I'm starting to think that checking behind is pretty much never right at these limits without a super read. Don't know if it was a mistype, but one of the reasons to check the turn is that he would c/r with a worse hand, but at the correct percentage that we are screwed whether we call or fold. If he never c/r a worse hand we can safely fold to a turn c/r.

11-30-2005, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case.

McGahee

11-30-2005, 04:53 PM

sean c

11-30-2005, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are ahead we want him betting the river not folding to our turn 3-bet.

McGahee

11-30-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are ahead we want him betting the river not folding to our turn 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has T2, yeah. Not if he has AK, AQ, KQ, or /images/graemlins/diamond.gif's.

11-30-2005, 05:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

We bet in the first place b/c we think we have the best hand. Now we get c/r. Let's say, for example his c/r means 66% of the time he has trips, and 33% of the time a hand we beat. We have to call down, but a 3 bet is bad b/c have the best hand <%50 of the time.

sean c

11-30-2005, 05:02 PM

McGahee good point. If he calls and donks a river blank hero calls or folds?

Buckmulligan

11-30-2005, 05:04 PM

I don't really see why this is really that close. The turn is really really obvious. We're betting for value, because we have the best hand a good amount of the time, and we are betting because we cannot afford to give a free card. How can anyone suggest checking this when villain could hold any overcard?

11-30-2005, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but I just can't put him on a 9 here. Villian is at 14.3% VP$P, and that's through almost 600 hands, so we can safely assume he plays tight preflop. He called a raise from the SB, knowing he'd be OOP the rest of the hand against a pre-flop raiser. His PFR% is high enough that I'd expect to see a re-raise if he had AA/KK/QQ (but not much else). The only hands I can see him doing that with that beat us are 99 and maybe, possibly, A9s if he's feeling really lucky. If he's got 99 and flopped quads, we pay him off, tell him "nice hand" and move on.

But, I think we're still ahead enough times to justify a 3-bet here, and if he caps, just check/call the river.

tiltaholic

11-30-2005, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is bad logic.

there is X% chance we are ahead but we're unsure what that X is. but it's not super small.

if we pay the same amount either way, shouldn't we go to showdown and have a chance to win the pot?

MrWookie47

11-30-2005, 05:16 PM

Addtionally, by folding to a cap, we forfeit what might be 4 outs.

@bsolute_luck

11-30-2005, 05:18 PM

the only reason to 3-bet is:

1. he c/r on a semi-bluff /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and check/fold the river UI.

2. call our 3-bet with 88/77 and pay off UI on the river.

otherwise i just call down.

11-30-2005, 05:29 PM

i'd 3-bet here because we're def going to find out whether we're ahead or behind.

if it's raised, we're behind and folding is not a bad option.
if it's called, the chances of us gettin a free show down is good enough to justify the 3 bet i think.

11-30-2005, 05:33 PM

if we call, the river will bet bet. that's 4 bb from the turn/river. are we going to fold the river unless we spike a J?

if we 3 bet, three things can happen: the villain can fold, call, raise.

if he folds we win. that's good.
if he calls, we can check/call the river- will cost us the same as calling down.
if he raises, we can fold for a cost of 3 bets. at this pt are we getting enough pot odds to justify to call a cap and the bet on the river?

11-30-2005, 05:43 PM

For those who want to fold in the face of this sudden aggression, what hand do you put him on that -

a) includes a 9
b) is played by someone with 14% VP$P
c) is good enough to call a raise OOP from the small blind, but not good enough to re-raise?

Outside of pocket 9's, I can't think of any. And if that's what he had - well, that's poker.

If he's the typical fish who plays 40-50% VP$P and has no concept of position, then yes, I can easily put him on a hand with a 9 here. But he's not...

kiemo

11-30-2005, 05:58 PM

I can definitely see SB playing A9s and maybe K9s from the SB if he thinks Hero has been stealing alot on the table.

This is tough to put him on a nine though with his numbers. A tight aggressive player will typically lead the flop with a nine hoping the preflop raiser reraises then go for the check raise on the turn. Waiting till the turn to check raise your trips is such a fish move and if the guy was a 30+ VPIPer I would say he has a nine everytime.

11-30-2005, 06:01 PM

but if it's capped on the turn, do you see the SB with 55 or 66?

DMBFan23

11-30-2005, 06:08 PM

I bet the turn but where is the love in this thread for 87s?

MrWookie47

11-30-2005, 06:09 PM

If we know that he'll bet the river if we call, but he'll fold if we make it three bets, then it's clearly not correct to 3bet.

DMBFan23

11-30-2005, 06:10 PM

I know the mantra lately is 'get to showdown no matter what with top pair or better' but I don't think 14 VP$IP players at 1/2 level are getting cute that often on paired turns. I'd fold when you get checkraised

11-30-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but if it's capped on the turn, do you see the SB with 55 or 66?

[/ QUOTE ]

That becomes more of a possiblity if he caps (66 more so than 55). Either way, if he caps it, I definitely slow down on the river, unless another Jack hits. (and if the jack hits and he had 99 after all, it's another trip to the computer store for a new mouse...)

And for some humorous reason, I can just see the Villian on some other board - "I flopped quads, and this guy 3-bets me on the turn!! Can you believe that?" /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

11-30-2005, 07:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know the mantra lately is 'get to showdown no matter what with top pair or better' but I don't think 14 VP$IP players at 1/2 level are getting cute that often on paired turns. I'd fold when you get checkraised

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is exactly why I will C/R here with AK on occasion when the conditions are right (HU against a relatively loose pre-flop raiser). One of three things will happen -

1. He folds outright because he's scared of the paired board, and I've just stolen the pot. I'm actually surprised at the number of times this has worked - especially if I know the other person likes to lead out each street with nothing.

2. He calls, and I can usually get a free showdown by checking the river again, as he fears another C/R.

3. He 3-bets, and I make it clear I was bluffing by immediately folding. Everybody sees this, and when I do get my monster hand, I get a lot more action than I would otherwise.

Now, obviously, I don't do this a lot, but it is a nice way to mix things up once in a while.

ninjaunderwear

11-30-2005, 07:36 PM

What kinds of hands do we put SB on after he calls pre-flop? How does his call on the flop narrow this range? And how is this range further reduced after SB check-raises the turn? If I call the raise on the turn, what is my plan for the river unimproved?

When I get check-raised on the turn, am I likely to be ahead of any hands that SB possibly holds?

My stats up until that point in the session are 15.56/7.78/1.83 after 90 hands. I have attempted to steal 1 out of 7 times, but folded from the CO on the turn after both blinds played along. It is unlikely that SB put me on a steal attempt from MP2.

Also, in the hands I had previously logged before this hand, SB had check-raised twice in 575 hands, once on the turn and once on the river.

McGahee

11-30-2005, 07:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If we know that he'll bet the river if we call, but he'll fold if we make it three bets, then it's clearly not correct to 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on what he has Wookie. I'm pretty sure you've raised turn donkbets with a decent pair against somebody who you think might be drawing, with the intention of checking the river behind. This is just a glorified version of that. Admittadly his C/R makes it a little more scary, but it's still a 'Ahead or WB' situation that doesn't require a showdown; and in any case we're still getting to showdown much more often than everyone seems to be indicating.

McGahee

11-30-2005, 07:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really see why this is really that close. The turn is really really obvious. We're betting for value, because we have the best hand a good amount of the time, and we are betting because we cannot afford to give a free card. How can anyone suggest checking this when villain could hold any overcard?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the initial turn decision is a fairly easy bet and I'm suprised there's much debate about it.

MrWookie47

11-30-2005, 07:50 PM

My post was kind of nit-ish, but if we know he'll fold to the 3bet (i.e., he wasn't drawing), then it's clearly not correct to 3bet. If we know for sure he's drawing, then it's clearly correct to 3bet. However, I don't think he's drawing here all that often. There's not much that a player that tight would be drawing with.

McGahee

11-30-2005, 07:57 PM

I guess that's where we disagree. If we're ahead it's because he's drawing. He's not making this play with air.

11-30-2005, 08:01 PM

the c/r indicates some sort of strength.. enough to assume that he'll call or raise the 3bet IMO.

MrWookie47

11-30-2005, 08:19 PM

My post was in response to nooob, who sounded like he was enthusiastic about our opponent folding. We definitely don't want him to fold here. Well, more properly, if he folds, it was almost certainly with a hand we didn't really want him to fold. We'd rather get an extra bet on the river.

Actually, if we knew for certain that he would be the river here, it's ok to call if he's drawing. He'll put in that last bluff for us, giving us the same EV whether he hits or misses.

Here's the thing, if we 3bet, we have to fold to a cap. This not only means we're folding as the pot gets larger, which is something we should tend to avoid doing, but we also agree to forfeit our outs. In this case, we have our two J outs, and the 9's are worth something. I don't know how many times he'll call with A9 or K9 (he's quite tight) compared to 55 or 66. If I'm sure I'm going to put in two more bets, and I'm considering raising and folding or calling down, I want to get something in exchange for my raise that would justify giving up my outs. That something in spots like this is the chance he'll fold a better hand. In this case, that chance is virtually zero. I prefer to call down.