Dreaded stats request . . . 20/40+. Going to showdown. [Archive]

Grisgra

11-30-2005, 12:04 PM

The commonly accepted correct range for going to showdown at the lower limits (10/20, 5/10 etc.) is in the 35% to 40% range. In those ranges, most people tend to win at showdown around 50% to 55% of the time (the lower the WTSD, the higher the W$SD, typically). Certainly, this is my experience over 100k+ hands at those limits.

Now I'm playing 20/40 and 30/60 and getting the living crap kicked out of me -- I used to be on the higher end, going to showdown almost 40% of the time. Now it's closer to 35%. And I'm still winning at showdown a lot less of the time, probably around 45%.

Possible explanations:

1) People are smarter at 20/40, less likely to call down with crap. They're showing fewer losers.
2) People are smarter at 20/40, chasing me off of marginal hands that would win at showdown (bottom/mid pair, etc.) In other words, I'm folding winners.
3) I am one unlucky son-of-a-bitch. My horrible run at 30/60 is over fewer than 5k hands, my almost break-even run at 20/40 is over fewer than 20k hands. Variance, she's just being a pain in the ass.

Yeah, I know I should just post hands, blah blah blah. And I will. But meanwhile . . . can any successful 20/40 or 30/60 SH folks give me an idea how often you go to showdown/how often you win there?

Alobar

11-30-2005, 12:48 PM

here are my 20/40 stats for the month. Hope this helps /images/graemlins/smile.gif

http://photobucket.com/albums/y62/dan1378/stats.jpg

11-30-2005, 01:05 PM

My WTSD% has always been less than other folks for some reason, I hover around 30%, while my W$SD is normal at the 52-55% mark. My fold at the river % is also a bit higher than most (45% or something like that). I've also always been a 2BB/100 winner, so I wouldn't get overly concerned if you're numbers are off the "gold standard".

However, I know my numbers are low, so I've taken to reviewing the hands where I folded at the river to see if I can spot mistakes, and then moreover, any trends behind my mistakes. I'm hoping I can crank my win rate up a little if I can find out what type of hands I should be seeing showdown with that I'm not.

Might be worth doing the same if you're feeling like your river play is the main worry.

Also, note that if you're winning without showdown and losing at showdown when being outdrawn, then you're WTSD% and W$SD% will be low. An bad streak can really wreck those stats over a small sample size.

rory

11-30-2005, 01:27 PM

37/55. My numbers always converge to that for 6-max+ games. I'm just the weak-tight version of DERB.

krishanleong

11-30-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
37/55. My numbers always converge to that for 6-max+ games. I'm just the weak-tight version of DERB.

[/ QUOTE ]

sigh. What great numbers. Would you mind posting your W$WSF? Thanks,

Krishan

rory

11-30-2005, 01:52 PM

40%

Grisgra

11-30-2005, 02:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
40%

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not certain but that seems low . . . can I talk you into giving a general (or specific /images/graemlins/grin.gif) summary of how you're playing preflop/postflop? How often do you bluff-raise or semi-bluff-raise?

Given how insane the action can get I'm wondering if whether it might be time for me to devolve to tightening up a ton preflop and moving to more fit-or-fold postflop. Because clearly whatever the hell it is I'm doing now ain't working.

rory

11-30-2005, 02:27 PM

I don't know-- if you want to see we can set up some sort of observation session or something sometime. I think I just play like everyone else on here.

imported_stealthcow

11-30-2005, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know-- if you want to see we can set up some sort of observation session or something sometime. I think I just play like everyone else on here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the fact that you normally play less tables and are better at focusing on player tendencies allow you to go to showdown more (correctly) and win more then most.

TStoneMBD

11-30-2005, 02:49 PM

my aggressive raise/foldto3bet line works really well at 15/30 but i think i need to make some adjustments because it just doesnt work for me at 20/40 and 30/60. at 15/30 i have a small wsd rate... something like 35/53 but thats because i put myself in positions where i can safely fold to raises while extracting maximum value on my winners. at higher limits they pound you for making bet/fold lines. i know some successful 30/60 players who take a more passive postflop approach, almost opposite of mine. they call alot on the turn and river to get to showdown. im not sure if thats entirely optimal but i think a mix of my strategy and theirs is a good one. mine just doesnt work at that level or im just not good enough to impliment it properly.

Surfbullet

11-30-2005, 02:56 PM

Hey Grisgra,

I'm currently at:
W$WSF: 44%
WTSD: 36%
W$SD: 54%

I'm breakeven over 6.5k (meaningless sample) but i've been relatively happy with the way those numbers look.

As for your possibilities:

[ QUOTE ]
1) People are smarter at 20/40, less likely to call down with crap. They're showing fewer losers.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you are sitting with the right guys, this is not at all teh case. I used to check behind a pair of 3s on a 2348J board HU, now it's an eaaaaasy value bet b/c he'll call with K hi, and sometimes Q hi, and would absolutely have raised a 4, 8, or donked a J.

[ QUOTE ]
2) People are smarter at 20/40, chasing me off of marginal hands that would win at showdown (bottom/mid pair, etc.) In other words, I'm folding winners.

[/ QUOTE ]
This, however, is definitely a concern. I *know* I fold alot of winners, i've had 1800 hand days where my WTSD is like 17%. But, I maximize value when I have a medium-weak strength hand so I think it makes up for bet-folding A-hi on semi-dangerous flops.

Variance is crazy at these games too.

Personally, I can't get my flush won@SD %age over 70, nor my straight won@SD over 75, nor my 3ofakind won@SD over 60, so i'm sure things will even out eventually. I'm playing the best poker of my life IMO, so i'm just making sure to get 5hrs a day in at the minimum.

PM me if you want to do a sweat session sometime.

Surf

sthief09

11-30-2005, 03:16 PM

one of the big differences i noticed between 10/20 and 20/40+ and now that im playing 10/20 again is that at 10/20 when you check behind on the turn after raising preflop, the 20/40 players will fearlessly value bet you and not bluff too much, while the 10/20 players do more bluffing than value betting. which means you have to give up a lot more on the turn i think which would lower your went to showdown

its likely youre running bad because no good player should be winning at showdown only 45% of the time.

also, consider going back to 10/20. i ran pretty good at 20/40 and pretty bad at 30/60, then i ran super bad in vegas, which shook my confidence a good bit, and playing 10/20 makes me feel like im really really good. i always know what they have and its so easy to play accordingly. and im not just saying that because im running good. im not. its just so easy.

Grisgra

11-30-2005, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
playing 10/20 makes me feel like im really really good. i always know what they have and its so easy to play accordingly. and im not just saying that because im running good. im not. its just so easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

True enough -- the only reason I'm down only a few grand this month is because I've snuck some 10/20 in there and running, as usually, at 3BB+/100. I haven't developed the skill to mucho-multitable 10/20 yet . . . I really want to find a way to make ~$200/hr at higher limits rather than just being a massively multitabling grinder . . . and hey, I'll admit it. I like the 20/40+ action.

But I think that starting in December I'm going to make sure I put in plenty of 10/20 time, just for the sake of keeping my sanity. Because you're right -- it's just painfully easy. And when you've had a bad session, you know WHY you've had a bad session.

baronzeus

11-30-2005, 04:30 PM

http://baronzeus.com/showdown.gif

these numbers include two 180+ downswings though, so take them FWIW. i'd say over the entire 50K sample i was running about average.

stoxtrader

11-30-2005, 04:44 PM

nice stats.

I assume a different average players per hand at each limit.

TMFS9

11-30-2005, 04:51 PM

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y9/jpeter9/pt.jpg

These stats are from 15/30 to 30/60 with a few (1k) hands thrown in from 50/100. Also I play a lot of 2-4 handed so to seperate those hands out I had to use the positional stats page. These are my stats for 4-6 players at the table and it seems as I go to showdown a little more than most so far.

Terrabon98

11-30-2005, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know-- if you want to see we can set up some sort of observation session or something sometime. I think I just play like everyone else on here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the fact that you normally play less tables and are better at focusing on player tendencies allow you to go to showdown more (correctly) and win more then most.

[/ QUOTE ]

This could very well be the case. I'm not familiar with exactly how you play Rory, but my numbers are almost exactly the same as yours (though I only play 5/10-15/30) and I also usually am only playing one or two tables at a time.

rory

11-30-2005, 05:08 PM

Grisgra doesn't multitable though, so that kills that theory. I think he doesn't multitable, at least.

partypokerer

11-30-2005, 06:22 PM

im at
wtsd: 34
w$sd: 55
w$wsf: 49
filtered for 4-6 players

NLSoldier

11-30-2005, 06:28 PM

i do not understand how you guys can go to SD so freaking much. wanna show some examples of hands that you take to showdown that you think i and others down at like 34 maybe dont?

mscags

11-30-2005, 07:08 PM

I'm wondering if there is any way to filter your stats to see how many times you went to showdown with Ace high and how many times you won with it? I think I'm getting to showdown too often with it, but im not exactly sure. Usually ill call down with Ace high on a draw heavy boad HU against an aggro opponent. Is this a decent strategy? Any other times Ishould be getting to showdown often with Ace high?

bugstud

11-30-2005, 07:38 PM

sthief09

11-30-2005, 07:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i do not understand how you guys can go to SD so freaking much. wanna show some examples of hands that you take to showdown that you think i and others down at like 34 maybe dont?

[/ QUOTE ]

i win a lot with A high and a bit with K and Q high. that could be it. i also sacrifice value sometimes with a hand that might be best in order to dodge a checkraise that would make me fold

Subfallen

11-30-2005, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i also sacrifice value sometimes with a hand that might be best in order to dodge a checkraise that would make me fold

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

When I've been folding a lot to turn check-raises, I start feeling paranoid. When I start feeling paranoid, I start tilting. When I start tilting...

mmcd

11-30-2005, 08:14 PM

I hardly have any 20 hands in my database, but for 30/60+ filtered for 6-handed or less, I have:

Went to Showdown: 38.46

Won at Showdown: 56.14

Won $ WSF: 45.94

TMFS9

11-30-2005, 08:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i also sacrifice value sometimes with a hand that might be best in order to dodge a checkraise that would make me fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is key, as long as you don't give up too much value. I feel in the aggro games that virtually all 15/30+ 6 max games are making it to a showdown as much as reasonably possible is a main factor in doing well.

Trix

11-30-2005, 09:33 PM

This stat isn´t really one of the good ones to compare as it´s dependant of other stats.

The tighther you play preflop, the more you should go to showdown in theory, as you have better cards.
The number of players after the flop will also influence the number, but one might think that it would be close enough to compare if people are playing the same games and it probably would if they played the same stiles.

You will naturally get to showdown more when you have position and the initiative, so opening alot outside the blinds should push this number up, while defending alot(multiway particlarly) should bring it down. 94s just doesn´t flop that well very often.

There are probably other factors aswell, but I´d say those are the most important ones.

If I had to give you a meaningfull reply, then I´d say that you are definetly running bad, 35/45 really isn´t longterm for anyone in my experience.

If you wanna improve, then look at your play instead, do you get as much money in when ahead as you can and lose the least when behind ?
Do you bluff/semibluff enough ?

If you insist on comparing this number, then find someone with similar other preflop stats to compare with.

Grisgra

11-30-2005, 11:34 PM

Average number of people per table is about 5, but the 20/40 and 30/60 stuff VPIPs are skewed in that there are a lot more hands at a full table and 4 handed. I'm generally playing about 29/19 at a 6-handed table, 33/21 at a 5-handed table, and 44/30 at a 4-handed table, regardless of limit.

I'm winning when I see a flop almost 50% of the time, making me think that I can't blame the whole thing on running bad. (I know I was bitching about 20/40, and a rate of 1.7BB/100 doesn't seem bad, but most of the money won there was two or three months ago. Last 12k hands or so have been crap.)

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/6793/statspic3lj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Looking at these it does become clear to me that it might be time to tighten up a little preflop . . . at least, for a little while. Duh. Maybe this is just my lagginess catching up with me?

I wish there was a way to just show stats for 5-6 handed . . .

PS 45/30 at a 4-handed table? WTF am I doing?!

I think I found my goddamn leak.

sthief09

11-30-2005, 11:50 PM

i say come back in the middle of december because you are almost certainly just running bad. its such an aggro game and you play very aggro, so theres tons of variance. your winrate is good overall. its unlikely you forgot how to play well.

btw im around 37/27 4-handed. i dont know whats normal