Value Bet?

[Augie]

2-4 HE game at UltimateBet. Game is loose with a couple of aggressive players.

Five players limp in, SB completes, and I raise in the BB with K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif K /forums/images/icons/club.gif . All but one call. Six of us to the flop with 13 small bets in the pot.

Flop is Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif . I bet and get 3 callers. Turn 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif . I bet and only the SB calls.

So I'm now heads up, in position, with 8.5 big bets in the pot, and going to the river v. an opponent who has shown zero aggression in this hand. I put him on top pair, a spade draw, J10, or a pocket pair. (Hard to narrow things down in passive games sometimes)

River is Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif . He checks. Assuming he will check-raise with 3 Q's or a flush, fold J10, and call with a pocket pair . . . who Value Bets?

[Terry]

Considering how strongly you've played the hand, what could he call you with that you could beat?

[happyjaypee]

Wow, an actual poker related post! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

I`d check behind here. The Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif or 8 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif are the worst river card considering your read cause they make 2 possibles holdings get there, if you don't chk behind here what would you ever chk whit???


-Happy /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Instinct]

I'd bet.

[Aragorn]

I'd bet too, although if I had a stronger read on the player, that would affect it.

[Augie]

I checked behind. My opponent had 10,10 and my computer stacked the chips.

In my initial post I asked who would value bet "assuming he will check-raise with three Q's or a flush." At the table I used that criteria and determined that he would only call with a pocket pair, so I checked.

For those who would value bet, what reasons can you give?
Does it have to do with my opponents passive play in the hand? You can bet and fold to a check-raise, knowing you are beat?

Thanks for the responses.

[Instinct]

In these games so many people will pay you off just to see cards. This includes many hands that will surprise you. ( I was paid off by 10 high a couple weeks ago !! )
CR is rare at river.

[Aragorn]

With so many bets in the pot, people will call with all kinds of hands. Usually, in a big pot they will call with almost anything. I just think you are more likely to get a call from a weaker hand than that you will get check-raised.

Also, people tend to check-raise more on the turn than on the river. Most people hate to miss a bet on the river with a big hand.