LSU -1 v Georgia SEC title POTW#14

[MyTurn2Raise]

Ok....this is a very exciting match-up and should be a defensive throwdown. I'm strongly behind LSU -1 v Georgia for this week in college football. These teams match-up quite evenly, so I'll forego alot of the analysis. I think the deciding factors are the LSU ability to stop an athletic QB like Shockley and that LSU has done better in close games.

I see a 20-13 win for the Bayou Bengals

Take LSU -1 v Georgia

I'm 9-4 POTW ytd
I'm 21-7 NCAA ytd on my 2+2 recommendations

[Ken_AA]

I agree, I'm surprised LSU is this small a favorite as they seem to have performed better in tough matchups. I'm on LSU this weekend also.

Ken

[TMFS9]

I like it /images/graemlins/grin.gif

You have given good analysis and picks this year, but I am going to disagree with you on this one. I think LSU is a bit overrated at #3. Georgia, with Shockley, only has lost a thriller to Auburn. I'm hoping this line moves a little bit, not sure if I will take a side or not at -1.

P.S. What do you think? Over/Under for Purdue wins in the Big Ten at 3?

[MCS]

LSU is indeed overrated. So is "u"ga, but not as much. Sagarin predictor lines it at LSU -2.3, but you probably can adjust that a little because it doesn't take into account the earlier injury to Shockley. So -1 seems like a reasonable line.

If anything, I'd lean to betting "u"ga. Good luck.

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LSU is indeed overrated. So is "u"ga, but not as much. Sagarin predictor lines it at LSU -2.3, but you probably can adjust that a little because it doesn't take into account the earlier injury to Shockley. So -1 seems like a reasonable line.

If anything, I'd lean to betting "u"ga. Good luck.

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MCS, I know you are a fan of the Sagarin predictor. I looked at this earlier in the year and sort of dismissed it. I think the big weakness it has is that it doesn't take into account how teams are playing recently. For example, Michigan State is #18 on it still. That being said, I think this would have some good applications, especially in late season games when there is a lot more data. How do you account for home field advantage with the formula? I am pretty sure Sagarin uses a universal constant for home field, which would not be good in many cases. Also, this may be good for bowl matchups to pick teams that may be better than their record that have played a tough schedule. Sorry to hijack the thread, but I thought this was an interesting topic.

[MCS]

First, a link to predictor: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt05.htm

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I think the big weakness it has is that it doesn't take into account how teams are playing recently.

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That is certainly true. However, I think most people overadjust for how teams are playing recently. A lot of times, "hot" teams are just experiencing some positive variance, so they aren't really any better, just luckier. So I don't think this is actually a big problem.

To me, its biggest flaw is that it cannot take injuries into account. That is something you need to consider carefully.

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For example, Michigan State is #18 on it still.

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People cite Michigan State a lot. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I admit that seems strange, but it might not be so wrong. Consider that against four excellent teams, they won AT Notre Dame and played fairly close to Michigan, Penn State, and at Ohio State. The thing about predictor is, you get credit for playing close games with good teams, even if you lose. Which makes sense.

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That being said, I think this would have some good applications, especially in late season games when there is a lot more data.

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Yes, it's definitely stronger the more data you have.

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How do you account for home field advantage with the formula? I am pretty sure Sagarin uses a universal constant for home field, which would not be good in many cases.

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He lists it in the rankings on the left hand side (every ten teams). Right now it's 2.62. It is indeed a constant for all teams. This turns out not to be such a bad assumption. Just using 3 works pretty well.

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Also, this may be good for bowl matchups to pick teams that may be better than their record that have played a tough schedule.

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Yes, it's very good for seeing what teams are better/worse than their record. This year, Big Ten teams tend to be underrated and good SEC teams overrated.

Predictor is almost always very close to the Vegas line. If it's off by more than a couple of points, it's worth thinking about why, and often worth betting if you can't figure out a good reason.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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You have given good analysis and picks this year, but I am going to disagree with you on this one. I think LSU is a bit overrated at #3. Georgia, with Shockley, only has lost a thriller to Auburn. I'm hoping this line moves a little bit, not sure if I will take a side or not at -1.

P.S. What do you think? Over/Under for Purdue wins in the Big Ten at 3?

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I'd go under with Purdue if I had to choose. They do have the easiest Big10 schedule, however, as the 4 teams that they play once are Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan St. The schedule makers must have smiled upon both Purdue football and Purdue basketball. Let's see--Penn St and Northwestern at home--should be wins. If they can get one more, it's a push. Yikes...tough one for me to bet.

[wonderwes]

The over/under for the SEC championship is 40. Now both teams have some of the best defenses in the country, but I putting my bet down on the over. Since these teams didnt play each other during the regular seasons, I say its hard to tell who will win. I would cast my vote for Georgia.

[noggindoc]

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For example, Michigan State is #18 on it still.

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People cite Michigan State a lot. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I admit that seems strange, but it might not be so wrong. Consider that against four excellent teams, they won AT Notre Dame and played fairly close to Michigan, Penn State, and at Ohio State. The thing about predictor is, you get credit for playing close games with good teams, even if you lose. Which makes sense.


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Not really that close, scores were deceiving.

[Easy E]

You have me on board for a unit each (LSU and under), oh College Handicapping Guru to the Stars

[RiverTheNuts]

I dont see alot of value on the over/under... LSU and Georgia have two of the best offenses in the SEC... its not like its Alabama playing here
I think itll end up very close to the 40 line

[Easy E]

I guessed defense plus title game = lower total. Mostly based on MyTurn's point total pick

[RiverTheNuts]

the title game theory is a good one... if I HAD to bet this I would go under, but I dont see enough value either way to overcome vig here... just my .02

I actually dont like betting the game either... I think this is gonna be something like 21-20, haha

I think the two teams are ridiculously even matched

[TomCollins]

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I dont see alot of value on the over/under... LSU and Georgia have two of the best offenses in the SEC... its not like its Alabama playing here
I think itll end up very close to the 40 line

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LSU has one of the best offenses in the SEC? Wow, thats pretty sad for the rest of the SEC.

[MyTurn2Raise]

LSU: 30 pts per game, 379 ypg, 233 passing, 146 running

Decent, but nothing to go hog wild over
Good dual-threat
Been able to put up at least 16 points against all opponents

[TomCollins]

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LSU: 30 pts per game, 379 ypg, 233 passing, 146 running

Decent, but nothing to go hog wild over
Good dual-threat
Been able to put up at least 16 points against all opponents

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Huge offensive threat. Also hasn't scored more than 21 on any team that is bowl elgible.

How can you not take UGA +1?

[wonderwes]

I think whoever wins will prob win by 10+. I just have no idea who. I am going to say Georgia's D has some big plays and I'll pick them as the winner. Its hard to tell since these teams didnt play each other this year.

[ChipWrecked]

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LSU: 30 pts per game, 379 ypg, 233 passing, 146 running

Decent, but nothing to go hog wild over
Good dual-threat
Been able to put up at least 16 points against all opponents

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Huge offensive threat. Also hasn't scored more than 21 on any team that is bowl elgible.

How can you not take UGA +1?

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That's what I asked myself. Took the dawgs.

[MyTurn2Raise]

oopsy

[MyTurn2Raise]

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You have me on board for a unit each (LSU and under), oh College Handicapping Guru to the Stars

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sorry man...whenever anyone jumps on my bandwagon, the wheels fall off. Just ask Kyro

[kyro]

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You have me on board for a unit each (LSU and under), oh College Handicapping Guru to the Stars

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sorry man...whenever anyone jumps on my bandwagon, the wheels fall off. Just ask Kyro

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I like to destroy trends as well. See the Unranked v Ranked opponents in CBB for more info.

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oopsy

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Keep banging away man. It's just one loss and you're still having a great year. And there's still bowl season coming up!