$33: blind battle line check

[AllinDan]

Assume no reads, and that I haven't played any hands of consequence. How's my line up to the river and do I call his river bet?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t800)
UTG (t750)
UTG+1 (t1555)
MP1 (t975)
MP2 (t555)
MP3 (t755)
CO (t740)
Button (t1190)
SB (t680)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t60) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t45</font>, SB calls t45.

Turn: (t150) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t30</font>, Hero calls t30.

River: (t210) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t100</font>, Hero calls t100.

Final Pot: t410

[Freudian]

Looks like he is trying to milk you here. Mooh!

[bluefeet]

Taking the donk lead (30 into 150) after simply check-calling the flop is NOT indicative of a made hand. A made hand is generally c-r'ing the flop, or with the call - probably letting you take another stab on the turn, or taking a more substantial lead himself (given the draw friendly board).

His peculiar betting looks much more like a donk draw or a "piece". Given a fairly small pot on his turn lead, I would make it t125'ish to go (folding to a push). Protecting your probable best pair, I think you get the same price to showdown...and just as often pick up the pot from the FD/"piece" holder.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Taking the donk lead (30 into 150) after simply check-calling the flop is NOT indicative of a made hand. A made hand is generally c-r'ing the flop, or with the call - probably letting you take another stab on the turn, or taking a more substantial lead himself (given the draw friendly board).

His peculiar betting looks much more like a donk draw or a "piece". Given a fairly small pot on his turn lead, I would make it t125'ish to go (folding to a push). Protecting your probable best pair, I think you get the same price to showdown...and just as often pick up the pot from the FD/"piece" holder.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given what you would do with mid-pair on the turn as response to his minibet, you still exclude it being a milking play?

[bluefeet]

Hi Freudian - for the record, I hadn't really absorbed your post...I was trying the Quick Reply thingy. I didn't realize it replied to "last" vs. OP.

Um...not exclude entirely, it's just a very bizarre line IMO. I can't see many milking with two-pair/set on this heavy drawing flop/turn with an interested HU opponent. While I'm not willing to go broke with this hand (thus the "folding to a push"), I would personally be confident enough to take control again on this turn, given his line to this point.

[durron597]

I would raise the turn to like 150 total and check or fold to any further action.

[AllinDan]

Thanks guys, I like the idea of playing this turn more aggressively even though it's something I'm still not quite comfortable with in game. When he donk min bet I was hoping I could either see river for free or for one more min bet, and really had no idea how to interpret his river bet.

Given the way I played the turn I think I should fold the river, as I can't really see someone bluffing the river for such a small amount. I guess I'm too used to the lower buyins where someone really could have anything in this spot.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taking the donk lead (30 into 150) after simply check-calling the flop is NOT indicative of a made hand. A made hand is generally c-r'ing the flop, or with the call - probably letting you take another stab on the turn, or taking a more substantial lead himself (given the draw friendly board).

His peculiar betting looks much more like a donk draw or a "piece". Given a fairly small pot on his turn lead, I would make it t125'ish to go (folding to a push). Protecting your probable best pair, I think you get the same price to showdown...and just as often pick up the pot from the FD/"piece" holder.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given what you would do with mid-pair on the turn as response to his minibet, you still exclude it being a milking play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing brings about clarity like a midnight run to Speedway for a 4 hour old hotdog and a pack of smokes - before bed.

I understand you were referring specifically to his river call question. I completely agree that THAT particular bet on this river reeks of bovinity (I might have just made up that word). I was speaking to the play up to that point.

[Freudian]

As always with blind vs blind play there is a guessing game and I think you can't interpret bets as you normally would (for example when it comes to protecting your hand).

But if you look at it from villains perspective, couldn't his play be interpreted as trying to build a decent enough pot to at least get paid off by the river, against what he must think is a poor hand most of the time. At least I would assume there is a very big chance of a fold if I bet big on the turn (since heros flop bet look like a standard "please let me win this hand" bet) and a very big chance of a check if I check the turn. Thus a small bet makes sense in sweetening the pot.

Alternatively he has something like JT and is a bit unsure of the strength of his hand and the meek turn play by our hero convinces him that his TPGK is good and he tries to get paid on the river.

For all I know villain could be a donk with A3, thinking he is good all the way. These kinds of hands at the lower limit are among the hardest to analyze in any meaningful fashion. I have had people limp/postflopown me with KK where no bet until the river makes sense on any scale known to humanity.

[bluefeet]

I understand your point - I do. But agree with me this (I suck at both math and English)...

- Two-pair or a set is NOT taking this particular line on this particulary drawing flop/turn

What's left?

a) draw
b) a stubborn-non-believing-couple-of-overs
c) a "4"
d) a scared Jack (though HU, I don't know how scared TP is going to be)

His line IS indicative of either of these.

Our turn raise is supportive of all of these.

With our second assertion we pick up the pot a number of times against the first three right here. With the latter we help ensure the "free" showdown.

By not raising the turn we give the first three a chance to improve - the "J" the freedom to claim the same amount we would have committed on the turn - and the likelihood of us having to fold when EITHER of the four leads, what is now a "mooh" looking river lead.

This is a must turn raise IMO.

[tripdad]

i would also raise the turn bet to 125 or so. also, on the flop, i would never bet more then the minimum here. even with top pair. just pot control considerations and conserving chips incase he wakes up with a hand.

tripdad

[Freudian]

I'm not opposed to raising the turn. Thats what I would do most of the time. But I don't think we should automatically interpret his weak turn bet as weakness. I don't neccessarily think protecting against draws that appear on the turn should be a very high priority in blind vs blind play. Sure you get nailed once in a while, but setting up decent valuebets adds up in the long run.

But finding out where we are on the turn is probably better than by finding out by calling on the river. It becomes much easier to play the hand if he calls or re-raises on the turn.