more meh hands

[1800GAMBLER]

man i hate poker.

ep raises. i reraise AK. he calls.

flop: J T 9. checked to me. i wonder why am i going to bet but my thought process ends there and i bet. i get c/r'ed and for some reason take pleasure in 'i was right'. i call.

turn: Q.

he checks. i bet.

river:

9. he checks. i bet. he c/rs. i wonder why am i going to call but my thought process ends there and i call. i get shown qq and take pride in myself for always being right.

[CardSharpCook]

3bet the flop? You have 4-10 outs, a raise here allows you to see 4th and 5th on the cheap while getting the money in while less of a dog.

[1800GAMBLER]

no.

[CardSharpCook]

you had 5 in this situation. 6 vs QJ, 10 vs 88, 10 vs 98. 4 vs JT. etc etc. You have at least 4 outs. You may even be ahead. How is 4-10 not fair?


edit: heh. Nice edit. He originally claimed that 4-10 outs "wasn't fair" and that 3betting won't secure him a free turn card very often.

[1800GAMBLER]

my 2nd edit was better, do the full math vs full hand range on average outs and average bets i go against.

jj tt 99 i go 3 bets on the flop against with 4 outs. qk i go 3 bets on the flop against with 0 outs. aj i'm more likely to go 3 than 2 with 7 outs. etc etc

[CardSharpCook]

1st, you still have 3 outs vs KQ. Second, I don't get what you are saying, are you thinking check behind is your best option here? perhaps it is, but once you have bet and been raised, it is either call or 3bet. Is your arguement that you are more likely to see a cap/lead the turn than a call/check the turn?

What is your point here? You played the hand perfectly but are running bad? Should I notify the Bad Beat Police?

[1800GAMBLER]

no. the point here is i played my hand, what i thought was as bad as possible, ... untill someone suggested flop 3 bet. and got the results i was expecting, lost. i should have checked behind the flop. i should have checked behind the river. i should have folded to the river raise.

i think i am likely to see a cap/lead rather than call/check the turn yes. all the while i could have v. little outs.

[shemp]

"i should have checked behind the river. i should have folded to the river raise."

What are you talking about? What limit are you playing? How many chairs are filled? Is there something about the villain that we should know? Yeah, the board pairing isn't good for your hand, but you should have checked behind? Huh?

[sweetjazz]

Flop is tough and it depends on how tight your villain's EP raising standards are. You're still ahead of AQ and chopping with AK, and this constitutes a large amount of his range here.

I think bet/calling here is okay.

Turn is standard.

River is meh, but I think checking behind is worse. You're getting called by any K here and probably by AQ as well. Folding to the CR might be best, but even if so, it's not that big of a mistake to make the crying call. (This situation comes up infrequently and you'll still win from time to time when villain has played the hand erratically.)

[1800GAMBLER]

K,xs never double checks

[DrGutshot]

I certainly understand checking behind the flop - but checking behind the river is just a bad idea - there are so many hands you collect from there. Once he check raises you almost certainly lose so I would fold there unless I had seen him do stupid stuff in the past.

-DrG

[1800GAMBLER]

not one listed hand range yet

[TStoneMBD]

i definitely think a flop 3bet is just wakko.

also i think a flop check is a good line.

[shemp]

I gather your spidey sense tingled, and listening to it may be a good policy. But checking this river behind after the described action against a generic online mid-limit opponent is a mistake in my opinion.

[ QUOTE ]
not one listed hand range yet

[/ QUOTE ]
What's with the Little Mr. Cranky Pants routine?

Yes. The board is failing you miserably. You haven't said what limit or how many seats or anything about your ep opponent or your own image. You just expect a hand range. Well, ok, let's assume it's 8 handed and he's aggro, so before you bet the flop: 55+, A-8s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo, and the occasional gangsta 56s and 83s and, of course, his traveling hand, 69s (which he calls "Big Lick", get it?). Good enough?

So. Betting the flop is reasonable, because you don't have a pair and want to clean up the trash if you are best, and you can certainly withstand a check-raise, it also may buy you a free turn card should you decide you are likely behind.

On the river, what worse hand calls. Well, not knowing anything about the opponent, I'd say I see calls from 88, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, QJ. You aren't good very often after you get check-raised though, more often than 1 in 20 I'd say, but less often that about 1 in 15. But, as estimates go, this is all even smellier tan usual, given the lack of information.

[1800GAMBLER]

Hands, i don't agree with: AT A9.

Hands you listed that may not call, AQ AJ QJ.

Hands you listed that will 100% call 88.

Hands you didn't list that i lose to, QQ JJ TT 99.

Hands that need discounting, QQ, QJ. QQ probably caps 90% of the time. QJ probably limps or folds about 70% of the time.

Final hand range in my view:

88 AQ AJ 0.3QJ vs 0.1QQ JJ TT 99.

Combinations, so 27 vs 7. i got 2 bets vs 7, so 27 vs 14.

So if he folds AJ QJ AQ more than 50% of the time my play becomes just a tiny bit -EV. Closer than i thought.

So yes, i do have a value bet if i go betfold.

[shemp]

Another way you might look at it is: you are good 100% when you are called on the river. Do you think that bet gets c/r more than called? A full house+ may lead the river, as a set may lead the turn. I just can't throw my hands up after being checked to on the river after this action, and say, a worse hand doesn't call here enough and he too often has a better hand. I don't believe it -- only among people who play snug and know each other well -- and they're betting out on the river anyway... It seems to me that someone extracted the max from you postflop and you feel a bit exposed, rather than ready for the next hand.

Oh.I do pay off the c/r. Which I expect is a mistake. I do think it is covered by the earn of the bet though (which doesn't make it right...)