2/4 River Raise...

[SoSo]

Opp is a uber passive 60/5 with an AF of around 1.5. The flop cap was un-intentional i was planning to just peel and either goto showdown/fold, i hadn't decided. As it happens i had an easy turn peel.

Am I up against a counterfeited two pair here enough of the time to make this raise on the river?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises....</font>

[irishpint]

bueno.
he like never has a better ace.
flush did not come in
he doens't have a T
A7,A8, 87 just got f'ed up

however the T might have hit his straight draw...so fold to a 3bet i think.

[SoSo]

ya, i had no desire to call a 3-bet.

[irishpint]

[ QUOTE ]
ya, i had no desire to call a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ] even he is 3betting 77,88 AQ or AK pf right?!

[bobman0330]

if he's uberpassive enough to smooth-call with AK (it is a drawing hand, after all) and 88, I make his range:
AK (8)
AQ (8) - less likely
88 (6)
77 (6)
A8 (8) - would he play these offsuit?
A7 (8)
87 (3) - unless he would play this offsuit. I don't think he bets the river with this.

Discounted, I count 24 hands that beat you and maximally 19 hands you beat. (conceivably 24 if he calls with 87o). Still a bad raise, since he's 3-betting any FH.

[irishpint]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's uberpassive enough to smooth-call with AK (it is a drawing hand, after all) and 88, I make his range:
AK (8)
AQ (8) - less likely
88 (6)
77 (6)
A8 (8) - would he play these offsuit?
A7 (8)
87 (3) - unless he would play this offsuit. I don't think he bets the river with this.

Discounted, I count 24 hands that beat you and maximally 19 hands you beat. (conceivably 24 if he calls with 87o). Still a bad raise, since he's 3-betting any FH.

[/ QUOTE ]

60/5 is calling 87o as well as other junk
60/5 is 3betting AQ,AK,88,77 almost always here
60/5/1.5 means he is pretty fricking aggro (if he was 18/5/1.5 he wouldn't be, but he's doing A LOT of betting/raising in A LOT of hands...so he doesn't always have the nuts, duder)

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's uberpassive enough to smooth-call with AK (it is a drawing hand, after all) and 88, I make his range:
AK (8)
AQ (8) - less likely
88 (6)
77 (6)
A8 (8) - would he play these offsuit?
A7 (8)
87 (3) - unless he would play this offsuit. I don't think he bets the river with this.

Discounted, I count 24 hands that beat you and maximally 19 hands you beat. (conceivably 24 if he calls with 87o). Still a bad raise, since he's 3-betting any FH.

[/ QUOTE ]

this guy has a 60 vpip, why can't he have a worse A?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
60/5/1.5 means he is pretty fricking aggro

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on his wtsd%. If he folds the flop 60% of the time he's reasonably passive.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Still a bad raise, since he's 3-betting any FH.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if we aren't calling a 3-bet...

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
this guy has a 60 vpip, why can't he have a worse A?


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... any A /images/graemlins/spade.gifX /images/graemlins/spade.gif certainly fits here too.

[Weatherhead03]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I up against a counterfeited two pair here enough of the time to make this raise on the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are as long as you fold to a 3-bet. 78/A8/A7 are now toast. I doubt he has a higher Ace as I think he would still 3-bet that PF. I also think 88 and possibly 77 would 3-bet PF.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he has a higher Ace as I think he would still 3-bet that PF. I also think 88 and possibly 77 would 3-bet PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

his PFR is only 5%, it's very questionable whether he ever even raises AQ/88/77 let alone 3-bets out of position
99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo

[Weatherhead03]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he has a higher Ace as I think he would still 3-bet that PF. I also think 88 and possibly 77 would 3-bet PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

his PFR is only 5%, it's very questionable whether he ever even raises AQ/88/77 let alone 3-bets out of position
99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo

[/ QUOTE ]

The 5% really has a lot to do with sample and you cannot really determine whether or not that is a true 5% until a fair amount of hands. In saying that I do agree with you that he would most likely not 3-bet 88 or 77 but I still think AQs would be a 3-betting hand for him. Still, unless we are given how many hands these stats are over its really hard to tell.

[SoSo]

Not AQ probably, and therfore that was my biggest concern. I Can't see a set here and i doubt he would 3-bet them either i tend to see sets played out of position tending to go for a c/r on turn/river.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

60/5 is 3betting AQ,AK,88,77 almost always here


[/ QUOTE ]

60/5 is not 3-betting AQ or 77/88 and often won't 3-bet AK.