Big non-nut draw on Turn with plenty behind

[jhall23]

Villian in this hand is pretty loose pre-flop and seems more on the passive side post flop but don't have much of a bead on his play yet as he's only been around for 3 orbits. He got his stack recently by getting 1/2 his stack in PF with AAxx and having it hold up.

How do you like to approach this turn spot?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

MP1 ($20.10)
MP2 ($28.70)
Hero ($160.75)
Button ($174.90)
SB ($55.70)
BB ($79.10)
UTG ($114.40)
UTG+1 ($56.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $3.

Flop: ($13.50) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, Button calls $10, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($33.50) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

[Tilt]

Insta - pot it.

He may fold a K high draw, two pair, or an overpair here. If he has something goot you probably have half the deck as outs. And you can't check call, cause then you have to hit to win. On a blank river if he calls I still bet 1/2 - 2/3 the pot. And I check call any flush I make.

Don't be afraid to make a move. He still has plenty behind, too. Let him be afraid.

[jhall23]

I agree check/calling sucks. Leaves me in an akward spot if I do hit a flush anyway and has no chance to win the pot right away.

I was basically contemplating Potting it or checking with the intent of putting in a check/raise if he bets. If I pot and he raises are you content to just push it in? Probably no fold equity after he raises but I think the overlay is probably there to push. Or since the fold equity is probably nill is this one of the spots to just call and then release the last 30-40 dollars if we wiff the river completly.

How about going for a check/raise? Obviously I have to call if he pushes, but if he checks behind you like check/calling the flushes still on the river?

[Tilt]

Yeah, if he comes over the top you should call all in I think. In most cases you will be tossing a coin, in some you will be statistically ahead, in some you will be drawing on about 18% equity. The average scenario here should provide the odds you will need at that point.

Absolutely don't check raise. I would rather check fold. You lose all fold equity by doing that and are basically just looking to flip a coin for stacks. By potting it you have the 10-30% of times that he folds going for you as well.

[bholdr]

[ QUOTE ]
Insta - pot it.

He may fold a K high draw, two pair, or an overpair here. If he has something goot you probably have half the deck as outs. And you can't check call, cause then you have to hit to win. On a blank river if he calls I still bet 1/2 - 2/3 the pot. And I check call any flush I make.

Don't be afraid to make a move. He still has plenty behind, too. Let him be afraid.

[/ QUOTE ]


I really like this analysis.

[pocket3s]

I say check here because we need more info . What we know is this He thinks big pairs are just as valuable as they are in holdem and will prob call you with one which makes him a 66% fave here, He DOES NOT have a set because he didn't raise you after the flop(he prob has an overpair), His options are check behind you which gives you a free chance to try to catch one of your 18 cards on the river or he could bet which at most could be the pot, if he does that you have 2 to 1 on your money which is what you need to justify a call here. I check/call which I know seems kind of passive here, but you have Q high here and a guy too stupid to fold.

[ QUOTE ]
... He thinks big pairs are just as valuable as they are in holdem and will prob call you with one which makes him a 66% fave here... to catch one of your 18 cards ...and a guy too stupid to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting this stuff from. As usual, Tilt is right on. The OP wants to win this hand as soon as possible.

[pocket3s]

Where do I get what from? He said that the guy put in more than half his money preflop with aces which tells you he overvalues his big pairs, he's a 66% fave because 18 cards help you if you assume the flush will be good, after the turn you win about 1/3rd of the time. The other reason I don't like it is because what are you representing? I think it's more likely that the loose pre-flop guy played 3,5 or 5, 8 than the hero here. I think a loose passive player calls with two pair or a big pair here and your Q high is no good, so why would you semi-bluff when you can PROBABLY get a card for free.

[BluffTHIS!]

For those of you who are advocating continuing to bulldoze on the turn with no pair and a couple non-nut flush draws, doesn't it seem wrong to you to be semi-bluffing into a player described as a loose passive player, i.e. a calling station? Especially since he likely puts the hero on a big pair and a draw only and now can not only bluff raise with impunity but also with a legitimate hand like a set/2 pair or a low straight? And what is your plan when the villain just smoothcalls and you have built that big pot with nothing out of position, and a red A or K comes on the river? Push your last money into a calling station and pray you don't get to look at aces up or two pair?

[jhall23]

Hey Bluff,

FWIW, I was not sure yet if villian was a calling station. He seemed pretty passive post flop, but not sure how loose he was. Definetly loose pre-flop but no overwhelming evidence to say if this carried over to his post-flop play. I just saw that he didn't bet or raise much post flop.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you who are advocating continuing to bulldoze on the turn with no pair and a couple non-nut flush draws, doesn't it seem wrong to you to be semi-bluffing into a player described as a loose passive player, i.e. a calling station? Especially since he likely puts the hero on a big pair and a draw only and now can not only bluff raise with impunity but also with a legitimate hand like a set/2 pair or a low straight? And what is your plan when the villain just smoothcalls and you have built that big pot with nothing out of position, and a red A or K comes on the river? Push your last money into a calling station and pray you don't get to look at aces up or two pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

It certainly crossed my mind when I posted originally. But why did the villain smoothcall the flop? Probably because he is weak. He is either drawing himself or hoping a marginal hand is good here. I find that firing a second bullet in a raised pot often does the trick. 80% of the time in a raised pot that flop call indicates weakness. Sometimes it means strength, which makes the next move tricky to navigate, but I don't think you can pass up the likely fold equity that you have on the turn here.

[pocket3s]

Jhall, what ended up happening?

[jhall23]

I checked. Villian ended up betting 20 in ~30 pot. I c/r pot he moved in for my last 55 and I say crap and make the call.

I wiff on my 20 outs and villian scoops with the nut straight with 5c7cJc8s. So 5 of my outs were dead.

After checking out the hand afterward I was pretty sure I wasn't a big fan of how I played on the turn. At the time I was thinking since it was head's up and I had just made a continuation bet on the flop that villian would try and pick up the pot with some shaky holdings since I checked it to him. So I thought I still had some good fold equity on the turn. As I said, while so far he was passive he had shown no signs of being a calling station yet so I thought he would fold things like an overpair or two-pair here. And when he has a set, top-two (or three) or a straight I am usually pretty live unless he has a made hand with one of the higher flush draws.