NL 100, fold the premium draw on the flop?

[BlueBear]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 9 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

MP3 ($39.45)
CO ($103.70)
Hero ($98.65)
SB ($58.23)
BB ($128.80)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($117.70)
MP1 ($36.60)
MP2 ($107.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB (poster) completes, UTG (poster) checks.

Flop: ($6) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $4</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $35</font>, Hero ???

UTG is decent, extremely tight and aggressive postflop. 13/4/3.0. Easy fold, is it not?

[scrapperdog]

I dont mind a flat call against an agressive player to see what the turn brings.

[Vavavoom]

I call this and push a non pairing turn....

I think A8/A9/98 is what you is up against....

[BlueBear]

I've no idea why the converter displays the information incorrectly, but the UTG player is actually the BB. (probably due to a missed blind).

[c_strong]

Villain would play like this with two pair, being afraid of the flush draw, and also with a set. There are many more ways he can have two pair than a pair - I make it 21 against 7 (including AA which is unlikely given no pfr against a large field). You are actually slightly ahead of A8 and 89, are slightly behind A9 and are a 2:1 dog against a pair other than AA.

Personally I think it's push or fold here - if a total blank comes on the turn I don't see two pair folding, and you only have one card to come. If a heart comes you may not make much more anyway. It's fairly marginal but I think a push is right - the pot's big so you will make money even if two pair folds every time and a set calls every time.

[twang]

I hate this kind of hands. There's so much that can go wrong and so much that can turn out good and that makes them really hard to play well in the heat of the moment. I'm at work so I can't pokerstove this, but my 2 c is that you have the best hand by the river more than 1/3 of the time (which would make folding bad).

[scrapperdog]

Why would folding as about a 2-1 dog be bad?

[twang]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would folding as about a 2-1 dog be bad?

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume villain has a two pair or a set (not aces) and maybe, maybe a slowplayed AJ-AK. Is hero a 2-1 dog to have the best hand at showdown?

[Solami17]

Dont forget, you also have a backdoor straight draw and a possibility of getting 2 of the same cards higher than a 9 to have a better 2 pair. You should definitely push

[4_2_it]

If UTG is a true TAG then this is a push or fold situation because you aren't getting paid if your flush hits. You are basically getting 2-1 on your money and based on the below analysis I think you can push here as long as villain's range is wider than a set.

You are a favorite against A8 or 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif:

pokenum -h ah th - as 8c -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 519 52.42 436 44.04 35 3.54 0.542
As 8c 436 44.04 519 52.42 35 3.54 0.458

pokenum -h ah th - 9d 8d -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 519 52.42 471 47.58 0 0.00 0.524
9d 8d 471 47.58 519 52.42 0 0.00 0.476

A slight dog against A9:

pokenum -h ah th - as 9d -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 465 46.97 520 52.53 5 0.51 0.472
As 9d 520 52.53 465 46.97 5 0.51 0.528

And a 3-1 dog against a set of 9's:

pokenum -h ah th - 9s 9d -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 322 32.53 668 67.47 0 0.00 0.325
9s 9d 668 67.47 322 32.53 0 0.00 0.675

[rachelwxm]

Good analysis. With those numbers, do you think a call is good option here too? My exp is people rarely fold to a push once he 3 bet. I call and if flush hit on turn he might pay me off anyway and I can fold if he bets big and turn misses.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis. With those numbers, do you think a call is good option here too? My exp is people rarely fold to a push once he 3 bet. I call and if flush hit on turn he might pay me off anyway and I can fold if he bets big and turn misses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing this (definition of a rock):

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is decent, extremely tight and aggressive postflop. 13/4/3.0.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is a low probability that you get paid off when you hit which is why I think it is a push or fold.

[beavens]

i like a flop push here. so many outs - but don't listen to me /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a low probability that you get paid off when you hit which is why I think it is a push or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you got 1:3 pot odds to peel one card on the turn. I think given implied odds, it's +EV but not sure if its better than pushing. Assuming he has 2 pair or better, what hands do you think he fold to a push?

[scdavis0]

jack it up pre flop like you shoulda and the hand plays itself

[Riverman]

Just put the rest in

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a low probability that you get paid off when you hit which is why I think it is a push or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you got 1:3 pot odds to peel one card on the turn. I think given implied odds, it's +EV but not sure if its better than pushing. Assuming he has 2 pair or better, what hands do you think he fold to a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has 2-pr or better, he's calling your flop push. Maybe a super weak-tighty lays down 89, but I think 2-pr or better is committed.

What if the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif is the turn card? Hero pushes, now, most TAGs will rightly deduce that hero's flop call was chasing the flush and now he wants to be paid on the turn. A set (certainly AA) might make a marginal call to draw to the boat, but two pair probably folds.

[Guin]

I believe with the reraise on the flop that you disguised the flush draw quite well that you could just call this situation. If a flush hits on the turn bet 1/4 pot which will look like a feeler bet and then 1/2 pot river.

If no flush hits then check / call is probably good to see if you can hit on river. I don't see how this is worse than pushing flop except that you might not have to lose your entire stack... A8 and A9 are not in the range of hands that I would expect from someone this tight... most likely AK or set.

Guin

[c_strong]

[ QUOTE ]
A8 and A9 are not in the range of hands that I would expect from someone this tight... most likely AK or set.


[/ QUOTE ]

He got a free play in the big blind...