88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

[CardSharpCook]

Fun fun game. Plays so very small stakes. 7-handed. SB tilted off his stack, got it back, and seems to be tilting it off again.

UTG+1: 40/8/.6
SB: 65/22/2 (guesses, of course)

I have been card dead and folding just about everything.

UTG +1 raises, I 3bet with 88, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif SB bets, UTG calls, I raise, SB 3bets, UTG calls, I call.

Verbal and betting tell indicate that SB has 5x.

Turn: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif SB checks, UTG checks, I bet, SB raises, UTG calls, I....

Verbal and betting tell STILL indicate that SB has 5x.

[flawless_victory]

welll, reraise!

[CardSharpCook]

obviously my problem isn't SB. Sure, my read may be off, but I am pretty sure that it he is spewing. But what about UTG calling 2 cold on the flop, and 2 more cold on the turn? He is the kind of guy who doesn't know how to fold a pair, but he'd give up on overcards by now, right? Having played with him, I'm pretty sure he does. I also don't think he is raising 66/77 PF.

[flawless_victory]

he has a heart draw or AJ most likely, but he could also be calling w/ AK... this game is donked out, right?
ive seen ppl withastand insane action to chase in donkey 20/40 games, raise.
if youre really concerned about him, check the river.

[Dazarath]

What about calling and then calling 1 more on the river, but not 2?

[flawless_victory]

raising again might convine UTG that TT no good, also you charge him another bet if he has AhTh... sure hes got alot of outs, but so what...

[gh9801]

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raising again might convine UTG that TT no good, also you charge him another bet if he has AhTh... sure hes got alot of outs, but so what...

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I don't think UTG is going to fold though, if he was capable he would have folded the first time around on the turn

[goofball]

I think you should raise again. UTG can do lots of things we want that mostly start with a reraise. If he wakes up anywhere ever we can fold, but he might fold a better hand, he might get stubborn with a worse hand, and he might lose a lot of money if the 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif comes on the river /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[Surfbullet]

I'd 3bet. I like raising, especially when I expect to be ahead like-so.

Surf

[CardSharpCook]

So we are all comfortable both with my read that after this much aggression that SB has 5X AND that UTG has hearts/might fold 99/TT? I mean, isn't that wishful thinking? And to believe those two things so much that we should raise instead of call? Can this be right?

As for my read of SB, I've not played with him before, but his betting/verbal patterns match perfectly 2 hands in which he gave considerable action with an inferior hand AND do NOT match 2 hands in which he had a very strong made hand on the flop. So yeah, I'm pretty sure the read is good, but the sample size is still very small.

[goofball]

I think UTG's hand range here is pretty small. After all that action his turn response is going to be very honest imo, if he is slowplaying a big hand he's not going to continue to slowplay it by calling 2 cold. If he had a pocket pair we would have heard from him more on the flop, and if he has a J I think he likely bets the turn. The most likely hand a reasonable villian holds after this action is two big cards that got stuck in for two bets on the flop and then picked up a heart draw on the turn.

[dankhank]

i like calling, then calling most rivers. you don't know where you're at well enough to justify a three-bet against two opponents.

[CardSharpCook]

Goofball, I don't think you understand just how passive UTG is. If he has 99,TT,QQ this is exactly how he plays it. AJ, probably considering I am repping AA/KK and SB is repping trip 3s. That is how he looks at this hand. From UTG's eyes, MP1 is a tight agro who likely has QQ-AA, AK. SB is a wild monkey who may or may not have the 3. From UTG's eyes.

[ QUOTE ]
obviously my problem isn't SB. Sure, my read may be off, but I am pretty sure that it he is spewing. But what about UTG calling 2 cold on the flop, and 2 more cold on the turn? He is the kind of guy who doesn't know how to fold a pair, but he'd give up on overcards by now, right? Having played with him, I'm pretty sure he does. I also don't think he is raising 66/77 PF.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow this hand got out of control. Here's my take on it...

PREFLOP: To me this is a fold, 88's do not play well against the range of this raiser in his position, but if you re gonna play it, it looks to me that you would be better off just cold calling since judging by the texture of this table 3 betting will never get you heads up with the initial raiser. Cold calling and play for set value seems to be the best option at this table if youre are going to play, however I still think folding is your best option in this spot.

Lets fast forward to the TURN: I believe in your read on the wild player even after he checkraises the turn, but there is still chance your read is wrong, and it is pretty clear to me at this point that the initial preflop raiser has a better hand than you and he is not folding. Another thing thats important is it is always possible that the wild player has J5. I would fold the turn to the checkraise more so becuz the UTG+1 called than the action of the wild player, but the small chance the wild player does have a 3 or a jack does contribute to why I would fold the turn. I know the pot is big but I just dont see how youre ahead here often enough to justify continuing in this hand.

Side note: If you feel compelled to stay in this hand, just call the turn checkraise, reraising would be insane.

[CardSharpCook]

Westley, you just summed up everything I was thinking on the turn. "God damn it, Brendan, this was a PF fold and you know it. UTG has TT. He's not maintaining delusions of winning this with an Ace or king on the river. SB MAY have the damned 3, even though you know damn well he doesn't. Your only hope now is to spike an 8 and you don't even have the implied odds to go fishing for that." I folded the turn.

The river was T /images/graemlins/heart.gif, SB checked, UTG bet and I thought, "Brendan, you're a genious. He just filled up." Sadly no. He had the flush. As expected, SB turns over 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif and UTG flips A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Though my error saved me $120, I felt like a damned idiot. The salt in the wound was SB berating UTG for fishing down the flush and getting lucky on him.

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Westley, you just summed up everything I was thinking on the turn. "God damn it, Brendan, this was a PF fold and you know it. UTG has TT. He's not maintaining delusions of winning this with an Ace or king on the river. SB MAY have the damned 3, even though you know damn well he doesn't. Your only hope now is to spike an 8 and you don't even have the implied odds to go fishing for that." I folded the turn.

The river was T /images/graemlins/heart.gif, SB checked, UTG bet and I thought, "Brendan, you're a genious. He just filled up." Sadly no. He had the flush. As expected, SB turns over 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif and UTG flips A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Though my error saved me $120, I felt like a damned idiot. The salt in the wound was SB berating UTG for fishing down the flush and getting lucky on him.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thats hilarious. I still think that folding this turn was the right move. I mean think about it, what just happened here was a low probability event, the event that just occurred here was that you actually did have the best hand on the turn, But even in this best case scenario there were still 15 cards that could hit the river to beat you. So even when you do somehow have both opponents beat on the turn that small percentage of time, you will still get rivered 33% of the time, but when you are trailing the vast majority of time, you will be drawing to 2 outs. I still think you made the right decision to fold the turn.

[dankhank]

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I still think you made the right decision to fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't. let's look at the facts: he allowed a passively played AK to "push" him off the best hand, on a board very friendly to 88. that's one of the biggest mistakes you can make in this level of games. the UTG is giving off clear AK vibes and CSC overthought the situation to the point of folding.

CSC, you and i play pretty similarly (or at least did in the past) and this to me is the kind of hand where if you look at it step by step it isn't bad, but overall it was really butchered. you screwed up in both aggresiveness and tightness. you three-bet a UTG player which in itself is risky, trying to take advantage of his postflop weakness by seizing initiative. in the end you gain nothing from this initiative since you let the maniac SB steal it and use it to make you fold a winner.

if the plan at the start of this hand was to be able to make a tough laydown if need be, then you would've had your chance on the river. instead you made the tough laydown when you were ahead.

[golferbrent]

I think you are being too results oriented. I dont think the fold was terrible... i think it was probably a 50/50 play. UTG could have so many holdings here that have us beat it isn't even funny.

Personally the 2 holding I would be most concerned about would be hands like 9-9,10-10, and A-J. Irregardless of whether he has that or not... if he doesnt then he surely has lots of outs to beat us.

The biggest problem with this pot is that CSC has made the pot too big by overplaying a marginal hand. I think he has made a great read on the SB. The only other thing I would say is this...

At that spot on turn, you have to decide if you are calling 2 more bets. If you call on turn you have to call on the end, and I don't have a problem letting that hand go. (Although I would cuss myself for making the pot so big)

[17percent]

overplaying middle pairs unimproved in limit games is one of the biggest mistakes you can make in limit poker... this is a prime example...

[dankhank]

i'll add that having a clear read on the SB being behind (and drawing slim) is more reason to stay in this pot, since he's putting in so much additional money. i see your point about being results oriented, but my point is, you have one opponent you're sure you're ahead of, and one you're not sure about, and you fold. meh.

[golferbrent]

Its absolutely a tough decision... one that you put yourself in by bloating the pot preflop. If you don't bloat the pot preflop... then the decisions are probably clearer and the action not as intense.

My thought would be that maybe the SB doesnt put so much action in if you don't make the pot big preflop. Once the pot becomes big preflop the SB is going to try to do everything possible to take the pot down.

My thought was that if you could accurately diagnose a hand range for UTG then we would be in better shape to make a proper decision. Im not sure if CSC has an accurate read on UTG. My thoughts are that I would love to make the call on the turn and then based on the river make a more accurate decision on the end.

IE-- if an A or heart comes we can comfortably fold. However, once we call the turn are we obligated to call the river w/n reason?? I'm not advocating calling 2 cold say on the river, but if we commit on the turn... does that commit us to calling on the end??

[dankhank]

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My thought would be that maybe the SB doesnt put so much action in if you don't make the pot big preflop. Once the pot becomes big preflop the SB is going to try to do everything possible to take the pot down.

[/ QUOTE ]

he has to bloat the pot preflop because he has to three-bet with 88. i see nothing wrong with preflop, and the SB coming along can be seen as nothing but good too, if CSC has a strong read he's trailing with a dusty five. in fact SB's actions can even be used to clarify where UTG is at...

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IE-- if an A or heart comes we can comfortably fold. However, once we call the turn are we obligated to call the river w/n reason?? I'm not advocating calling 2 cold say on the river, but if we commit on the turn... does that commit us to calling on the end??

[/ QUOTE ]

of course being last to act on the river is part of the turn call. if you get a bet and a call back to you regardless of river card, it sounds like CSC can make a tough fold. if it's a blank and there's a bet and a fold, easy call. many variations to the river action, but lots of clear decisions. and you get there for one bet, so i don't see why you'd mess with a good thing by raising or folding.

[golferbrent]

I agree that with the SB action on the hand that UTG's hand range should be clarified. However, I haven't seen any speculation from CSC about what he put UTG on. I think the decision on turn revolves around what you put UTG on and whether you can beat that.

If you put him on something you can beat then I think a call is in order... but CSC has made all of the decisions difficult in this hand. Not that the decisions wouldn't be hard no matter what... any mid pair is tough to play.

I am in no way advocating to absolutely folding on the turn... but the decision to fold or call I believe is probably not very much + or - EV. My analysis revolves around if we do call... can we in good faith fold on the river? Or are we obligated to call the river once we call the turn?

[CardSharpCook]

I had UTG on...

PF: 99-KK, AK/AQ

Flop: 99-QQ, AK/AQ

Turn: 99,TT,QQ, AJ/AhKh/AhQh

In my mind, I had him on TT though. That seemed to be his most probably holding. AJ shows up in my range on the turn. I think that is OK though. If you can't make any changes to the original range you put someone on, you'll run into trouble.

[ QUOTE ]
I had UTG on...

PF: 99-KK, AK/AQ

Flop: 99-QQ, AK/AQ

Turn: 99,TT,QQ, AJ/AhKh/AhQh

In my mind, I had him on TT though. That seemed to be his most probably holding. AJ shows up in my range on the turn. I think that is OK though. If you can't make any changes to the original range you put someone on, you'll run into trouble.

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I put the UTG on the exact same range, live passive players would play all these hands the same way based on my experience. This is why I said I think folding the turn is the right move. You are a 15-1 underdog against the UTG's range, and you are getting 14-1 pot odds to call, so just from this information alone you should fold the turn, but if you also factor in that the SB will have you beat 5-10% of the time since no read is 100% accurate, and that even when you do happen to have both these players beat you will still get rivered approx 33% of the time, Thats even more reason to fold this turn.

Heres a little more math to show that folding is correct, since you are a 15-1 underdog against UTG's range, you will be ahead of him 6.25% of the time. Lets assume your read on the SB is 95% accurate, so you will be ahead of the SB 95% of the time. Now the probability of you being ahead of both these players is (6.25% x 95%) = 5.94%, but even when you are ahead 5.94% of the time, your hand will only hold up 67.4% of the time since you will get rivered 32.6% of the time. So the probabilty of your hand being the best and also holding up is (5.94% x 67.4%) = 4%. If we convert this 4% into pot odds, you will need pot odds of 24-1 to call. If we assume you will make 4BB on the river if you hit your hand then you would only need 20-1 odds to call, since you are getting 14-1 to call, folding is the right move.

[golferbrent]

I agree... I like your read on the turn... A-J seems to be somewhat likely. However, the way he played it--I would put him on exactly what you put him on 9-9 or 10-10. The way it looks... he has read the SB as weak as well and is stuck in call down mode.

The question on the turn would be do you think you can get him to lay down the best hand. With him calling 2 cold on the turn you have to put him on a hand which beats you.

My question would be how do you characterize UTG's play? Is he weak, TAG, ?? Just curious how that influenced your range adjustments.

I would like to say that I think this discussion has been very good. It has been a long time since we have had some thoughtful discussion on the mental thought processes and decisions that a player was going through street by street.

This street by street thought analysis is what really helps our game improve unlike the "he's a 34/14 vpip player". That really doesnt lend a lot to the discussion, but this type of discussion lends a lot more. Hopefully we can continue to spark great discussion in the medium forum and the high limit posters will be mad that they separated us!! LOL!

[golferbrent]

Westley--
Love the analysis this is great stuff. Could you PM me the calculations you went through to calculate these percentages. Thanks!