15/30 A river raise-fold - AK

[Surfbullet]

Villain is 45/24/2 but not out of control postflop...aggressive though.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Surf is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Surf raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Surf caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.66 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Surf bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Surf calls.

Turn: (6.33 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Surf calls.

River: (8.33 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Surf raise-folds...</font>

Surf

[Joe Tall]

I'm down.

[gh9801]

I like it, although if he's 45/24/2 it means he's very very aggressive (he's playing a lot more hands and his AF = 2 still), so I might even call a river threebet

[Dazarath]

I think it's closer between calling the 3-bet and capping. I'd never fold. An AF of 2 combined with 45% VPIP is very, VERY high. You did say he's not out of control postflop, so a cap might be spewing.

With a 24% PFR, is it not likely that he would play AK-AT in the same manner?

[hobbsmann]

if your plan is to fold to a 3-bet then I don't like it.

[flawless_victory]

no fvcking way do i fold this, call.
i suspect you called and were shown AA, now you post what u think u shouldve done to get feedbacjk... PLZ dont fold AK on this board in a HU pot.

[stigmata]

Yeah, I think this guy would 3-bet the river with AK, so I'm calling too.

Calling is at worst a small mistake; folding is a BIG one.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is at worst a small mistake; folding is a BIG one.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the dumbest thing people say on these boards. How can folding be a BIG mistake? Because it cost you the entire pot? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Sometimes I wonder if people realize folding the best hand is occasionally part of playing good poker.

I think raise-fold &gt; call &gt; raise-call.

Krishan

[Chief911]

For Gods sake people, he's 42/24. He could be doing this with AT for all we know.

Raise, and call a 3-bet, and good lord this isn't even close. If this is a 19/13 we are talking about, then I probably just call expecting a chop at best, but a chop enough that the call is warranted. But with those stats? I'm raising.

This type of river is not the time to be weak-tight.

Nick

[private joker]

But Nick, the read is that he's not out of control postflop. 42/24 only tells the PF story. If he's "not out of control postflop," then I don't see the guy 3-betting the river with a hand worse than or equal to AK. I don't think we're ahead often enough to make calling a 3-bet profitable.

But since I think AK has a lot of showdown value heads up on this board, I don't really want to pick a line that involves folding. So my option would just be to call the river bet. If he's bluffing, he'll fold to a raise; if he's got a monster, he'll 3-bet. And since we've demonstrated enough strength that he knows we have a decent hand, I'm not sure I'm ready to go to war on this river.

[stigmata]

The guy is very aggressive. Not a maniac but 45/24/2 is certainly more aggressive than optimal. Villains aggression stats show us that he will 3-bet the flop with top-pair, any kicker. Therefore, at the river, his play is consistent with Ax or better.

We have a simple value raise, full stop. The only hands that beat us are AA, A6, A7, 77, 66, 22. A[Q-8,5-2] will call a raise. Note that there is only one way villain can have AA &amp; 66, and only 3 ways he can have 77 &amp; 22, etc.

If we raise the river and call a 3-bet from a better hand, we will profit. The only real question is whether to call a 3-bet or not.

[NLSoldier]

I think you have to call the 3bet. THe only logical hands you are behind are AA and 77. When the range you lose to is that small I think the "donk factor" becomes very large.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to call the 3bet. THe only logical hands you are behind are AA and 77. When the range you lose to is that small I think the "donk factor" becomes very large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the last sentence, but I disagree with the range itself being that small. This guy raises PF more often than most of us even enter a pot. So I can see him 3-betting from the BB (once it's heads up) with a wider range of hands that would c/r this flop and lead the turn. Maybe 65s (hearts?), A6o/A6s, 76s, A7s etc. If he's that aggro post flop, maybe he thinks he can push Surf off KK by representing an A when he just has a 6.

I dunno; it's hard for me to say since I'm just going off the read in the OP, but someone who doesn't get too out of control postflop just won't 3-bet the river that often without A7 or better. Maybe he will, but... raise/call just feels like putting in more BBs than I want to in this situation. If only we were out of position -- we could bet/call!

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
THe only logical hands you are behind are AA and 77 [and A6, A7 etc....].

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why it is an easy value-raise.... IMO, your leaving money on the table if you dont raise this against a guy with 45/24/2 stats.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to call the 3bet. THe only logical hands you are behind are AA and 77. When the range you lose to is that small I think the "donk factor" becomes very large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the last sentence, but I disagree with the range itself being that small. This guy raises PF more often than most of us even enter a pot. So I can see him 3-betting from the BB (once it's heads up) with a wider range of hands that would c/r this flop and lead the turn. Maybe 65s (hearts?), A6o/A6s, 76s, A7s etc. If he's that aggro post flop, maybe he thinks he can push Surf off KK by representing an A when he just has a 6.

I dunno; it's hard for me to say since I'm just going off the read in the OP, but someone who doesn't get too out of control postflop just won't 3-bet the river that often without A7 or better. Maybe he will, but... raise/call just feels like putting in more BBs than I want to in this situation. If only we were out of position -- we could bet/call!

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess its impossible to say for sure, but when I see guys with stats like that, I assume most of the extra looseness comes from being really lag in position and defending blinds a ton, not from making retarded 3bets out of the bb vs an MP raiser...

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
THe only logical hands you are behind are AA and 77 [and A6, A7 etc....].

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why it is an easy value-raise.... IMO, your leaving money on the table if you dont raise this against a guy with 45/24/2 stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting point. Maybe I'm putting too much value in showing down, and missing bets because I don't like lines that involve folding heads up with very good hands.

I'll think about this potential leak and maybe post some hands in the future where I just called river bets wherein I thought I was ahead but didn't want to fold to a 3-bet.

[Chief911]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 45/24/2 but not out of control postflop...aggressive though.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Surf is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Surf raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Surf caps</font>, BB calls.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. Lets take a look at how things went preflop and on the flop. He shows alot of aggression preflop, 3-betting out of the BB. And then shows alot more aggression on the flop. So what range of hands would he 3-bet here?

AA through TT, 66, 22, AK through probably AT, A6, A2 (Although the last two are a BIT of a stretch even for a 42/24) and maybe more.

So, you /call on the harmless turn, he doesnt slow down and bets again on the river. Of those hands that he 3 bet you on the flop, which ones are ahead of you at this point? AA, 66, 22, A6, A2. That's it kids. And the likelihood of him 3-betting you on a flop where he hit a set is not good. So, he's got A6, A2, or he's donkin it up with another ace, a big pocket pair that whiffed, etc.

I think this is a clear raise, with a call of a 3bet.

Nick

I sometimes like to raise the flop (again) or turn, but only if you don't think he will fold. If not then the river raise is good, but no matter what I am going to showdown.

[sfer]

Put me in the raise/call camp. I like to put in a lot of action on the flop. I think it discourages a lot of shot taking.

[BoxLiquid]

I would've reraised the turn.

[toss]

I think folding is bad. You're putting him on too narrow a range. Also the the donk factor I've heard mentioned above.

"I can fold TPTK against LAGs for one bet on the river." We could make it a t-shirt /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Surfbullet]

Thanks for the input guys.

Some of my thoughts:

The guy was aggressive postflop, but actually seemed relatively sane. He definitely could be raising the flop with a PP trying to get me off a better one, so I thought call-call-raise was a better line since he may actually be capable of folding something like 99 or TT before the river.

My biggest problem is this: My line (prior to the river raise) looks exactly like KK-JJ. So, when I raise the river, he's thinking "this guy is FOS" and may well 3bet AJ+. I hadn't considered this at the time, and in retrospect it makes raise-calling better than raise-folding.

If he's not thinking that hard then raise-fold is best imo - against a more unimaginitive/predictable/passive player.

So, I raised, he 3bet, I folded. I said NH, he said "A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif." Dunno if I believe him or not, but I really needed to consider what he thought of my hand before taking this line.

Thanks,

Surf