Bubble: Who makes this call?

[Scuba Chuck]

$22. Someone was pushing every hand. Never had a steal opp. I got in this position when my AK was called by 99. In this hand, pfr is the 99 guy - if that factors into your decision at all. My guess is he has any pair, or a strong ace (considering his position).

1.82:1 on this call.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t2960)
SB (t2245)
Hero (t810)
UTG (t1985)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1985 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ...

[fluorescenthippo]

not me

[bluef0x]

That'd be a horrible call?

Even if he's pushing any two SNGPT says fold.

[eejit]

Even against any two I'd fold this, ready to push any two on the next hand.

[Jman28]

Clear fold I think. right?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Even against any two I'd fold this, ready to push any two on the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on. Do you not read the posts? It is not likely I'll get to push the next hand. Erego, the first chance I will have to push I will have 510 chips, so any BB caller, will have 300% more chips than me, and have 2.6:1 pot odds to call me. So pushing any two cards on my next chance is just flat not thinking.

I'm not trying to advocate that a call here is great/correct. And I'm still not completely sure how I feel about it. But I need to double twice, or hope some other clash happens in order for me to climb back into this.

[bluef0x]

Next hand you might have something better than 10-2- call that then.

If not- push the next

No way I'm calling with T2o here.

[kong98]

I like a call here. My gut feels it is probably less -EV to call here than it is to wait for another hand. You pretty much have to gamble at this point.

[Gramps]

Don't panic yet - you're probably 30% at best to win with T2o here (doubt it's a "random hand" or anything close from pusher). You're going to have to win a showdown in all likeliehood, but there's absolutely no way that you should choose to try and do it here.

You're much better off folding, and calling a push blind on the next hand (and if you win that from an UTG push/button push, you'll have 1420 chips - 7 BB). If you have shat in your SB and have to win a showdown in your button, UTG, or waiting til the BB, you'll have enough chips for FE. I think I'd rather fold all the way to my BB and make a stand blind there than call with T2o here.

Yes, you're not in the best of situations. But, rather than taking this ~30% situation, why not just take the best of the next 4 hands (making an assesment at each point whether on average this will be the best place to make a stand).

[bluef0x]

T2o is a sub-50% hand.. which is all I can think of to argue for waiting till next hand. You're gonna have to gamble- but I feel gambling here is pretty bad.

[jeffraider]

i can't see any real good reason for calling here.

[kong98]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, you're not in the best of situations. But, rather than taking this ~30% situation, why not just take the best of the next 4 hands (making an assesment at each point whether on average this will be the best place to make a stand).

[/ QUOTE ]

You're taking a 30% chance to get solidly back in the tournament. With 1720 in chips, you're dangerous to everyone.

If you wait you get less chips when you win, and now you need to double up and steal a bunch to stay alive.

I guess you could also argue that there is a chance that someone else will bust out before you do if you wait, putting you ITM. This depends on how the other players are playing.

If I had 600 or less, I insta-call and hope for the best. Maybe with 800, you should wait a bit longer? Regardless, I don't think that calling here is a huge mistake.

[tigerite]

I understand where you're coming from Scuba, but this is a fold. Now, give me T9s, and it becomes a bit more interesting.

[eejit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even against any two I'd fold this, ready to push any two on the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on. Do you not read the posts? It is not likely I'll get to push the next hand. Erego, the first chance I will have to push I will have 510 chips, so any BB caller, will have 300% more chips than me, and have 2.6:1 pot odds to call me. So pushing any two cards on my next chance is just flat not thinking.

I'm not trying to advocate that a call here is great/correct. And I'm still not completely sure how I feel about it. But I need to double twice, or hope some other clash happens in order for me to climb back into this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did read the post and I was thinking. I'm thinking I'd much rather push if I get lucky and catch half a hand in the next 2 or 3.

As far as pot odds, this is the 22's right? Unless you've got a specific read, you're giving your competition way too much credit.

If you think calling here is correct then good luck to you.