Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw

[nolanfan34]

Hey all,

Here's a hand that I didn't play, but read from someone else. Wondering what people think, I had one gut reaction instantly, but the discussion that evolved made me rethink my thoughts.

Here's the hand.
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$10 SNG on Party.

The table was unusual for these SnGs in that there was a lot of limping and not much preflop raising.

Seat 1: null2 (1025)
Seat 2: Bob (413)
Seat 3: Joe (1735)
Seat 4: Sam (1261)
Seat 5: HERO (750)
Seat 10: null1 (2816)

Sam posts small blind (25)
HERO posts big blind (50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
null1 folds.
null2 folds.
Bob raises (100) to 100
Joe calls (100)
Sam calls (75)
HERO calls (50)
-- Pot has 400

** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif, T /images/graemlins/club.gif ]
Sam bets (85)

I have 650 chips and the pot is now at 485. What should I do?

[pineapple888]

OK, I'll bite.

I push.

Now tell me why I'm wrong.

I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot.

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs }

[splashpot]

I probably would have folded preflop despite getting 7-1 odds. But that just shows how weak tight I am.

Personally i would fold this pre-flop.

I would definitely fold this flop though, i think that out of the flush outs only 2 are any good (for the straight flush) and we have the wrong end of the straight draw.

Fold pre-flop. But that's not what you asked about...

This may sound silly, but I'd straight fold here. You have two other players to act, including a pre-flop raiser. If you push, you'll get called by plenty of people whose hands or future hands (Ac, Jc, set, better two pair) eliminate many or most of your outs. If you call, getting raised is very possible. No card can give you a lock. Every turn card is tainted and/or susceptible to plenty of redraws. You still have a decent stack. Run away.

A real debate would be what to do w/ Jc9h here...

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here.

I think what's missing here is the possibility of there being two of these (or similar) hands out there. The fact that it's a multi-way pot drastically reduces your chances of winning, and you didn't even factor in anyone having the Jc.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a pair already. If AcKh wants to come along, for example, you're fine with that. If they have a better pair *and* a higher club, just draw to the non-club straight instead.

Sure, you can construct scenarios where each villain has specifically the type of hand that kills a different set of your outs, but how often will that happen?

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a pair already. If AcKh wants to come along, for example, you're fine with that. If they have a better pair *and* a higher club, just draw to the non-club straight instead.

Sure, you can construct scenarios where each villain has specifically the type of hand that kills a different set of your outs, but how often will that happen?

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion the key to this hand is the multi-way pot, which means the situations you mention will occur more frequentely.

Another key is "Sams" t85 bet, less than 1/4 of the pot. This bet usually screams of somebody wanting a cheap draw. More often than not, at the $10 level from somebody with the Ac. And I see this hand calling your push very often. Yes an OESD and flush draw IS a strong hand and favoured over any ONE pair.. but let's not get carried away with this. In a mutli-way pot you're more often against more than one pair, or a stronger draw. I still believe a fold here is correct.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
In a mutli-way pot you're more often against more than one pair, or a stronger draw. I still believe a fold here is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

But there's also more money in there in a multi-way pot, and as I explained, it will be rare that you won't have some kind of strong draw.

I still see this as an easy push, but I guess there's nothing more to be said.

[FlyWf]

A lone Queen of clubs eats nearly all of your outs for dinner.

You have a ton of outs against top pair with rag kicker, but all of those outs are likely making a third party a better hand.

No hand that you are significantly ahead of thinks about putting any money in this pot. The best case scenario is something like Ac8s or something calling you.

[Uppercut]

That flop isn't nearly as strong as one might think. However, it is a scary flop for others, so a push MIGHT just take it down on the flop.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
A lone Queen of clubs eats nearly all of your outs for dinner.

You have a ton of outs against top pair with rag kicker, but all of those outs are likely making a third party a better hand.

No hand that you are significantly ahead of thinks about putting any money in this pot. The best case scenario is something like Ac8s or something calling you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're worried about exactly one card? When, unless the other card in that player's hand also hit the flop, you are still ahead?

Meanwhile, the other dude claimed that everyone is calling me with any piece of the flop.

It's a semi-bluff, guys. You're happy to take it down now. If you don't, you will almost always have a decent draw. That's it, I'm done.

[bigt439]

Push?... I don't get it. What else can you do?

Calling is meh, you want this heads up or over. Now.

[Michael C.]

I don't understand why you and some of the others just assume you have so many outs. With so many people in the pot, can't someone already have a higher flush, leaving you with one or maybe two outs? I think there are a lot of hands which have you beat here. Of course I don't play the $10s, so maybe some donk will call you with just the A of clubs or just a 10. But even in those cases you aren't a big favorite, so I don't think I push here.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you and some of the others just assume you have so many outs. With so many people in the pot, can't someone already have a higher flush, leaving you with one or maybe two outs? I think there are a lot of hands which have you beat here. Of course I don't play the $10s, so maybe some donk will call you with just the A of clubs or just a 10. But even in those cases you aren't a big favorite, so I don't think I push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, there might be monsters under my bed too, but I still sleep.

[Michael C.]

[ QUOTE ]
I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot.

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs }

[/ QUOTE ] Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have no reason to believe they are there?

Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second.

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we know our equity against these hands. My point is simply that there's a huge amount of hands that we're ahead of that pay off.

[Michael C.]

If one of the five players has two overcards, one of which is a club, they're tied with you. If someone has a straight or flush, you're behind (with four people in the pot, the chances of someone having one of those hands is not SO insignificant). If someone calls with either the J or A of clubs and any second card, they have a lot of outs. So most of the people calling here are ahead of you or even with you. A lot of these hands leave you with outs and given the odds may justify your push. But I don't see why this such a clear push and why it is so uncommon for someone to have two clubs, or two straight cards. That's a lot of cards, and suited cards and connectors are exactly what a lot of people limp with. Maybe it's a push, but it's not so clear to me without more thought.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have no reason to believe they are there?

Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got to agree. This is a push.

[aujoz]

my newbie view on this:
-the pot's big enough that winning it puts you in a good position late-ish in the tourney
-there's a good chance everyone will fold
-even if they don't fold, you're in a good spot to win with your very strong draws

=push, in my view

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have no reason to believe they are there?

Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much the crux of the discussion, and the reason I thought the hand was interesting. When I saw the hand, I immediately thought easy push. But there were a number of people who said the same things as some have in this thread, regarding just how strong the draws are, and whether hero is drawing live, etc. I thought it was interesting the people pretty much were in one camp or the other - not much middle ground.

After looking at the math, and the ranges of possible hands, I do think this is something I'd probably push with as well. Particularly because it's a SNG, and you can't pass up the chance to pick up this many chips I think, when you have a small edge and there's a chance that people will fold. I think it's important to remember that while the board looks dangerous to hero because of possible draws, it looks equally dangerous, if not moreso, to an opponent who may be ahead now with an overpair, but doesn't have a club or a straight draw.

Thanks for the discussion on this.

You are assuming one caller? This is a 10 sng. Every club, pair, and 10 will come calling.You are behind TPTK, and even if you are ahead of some hands many hands will actually be favored? The equity numbers are not that impressive? You lose the hand your tourney is done. You win the hand and you probably lose all future fold equity.

FOLD!

[FlyWf]

The problem is that if you get more than one caller you are done. The following hands are likely to call:
Made straights
Made flushes
Sets
Two pair
Overpairs
A ten with anything else going for it(club, J/7 kicker)
A, K, J of clubs. Q of clubs if it's second card is anything decent.

The pot is big, the pot is multiway, and people at the $11s love to call. Don't semibluff big fields on scary flops, especially not when you aren't first in. You're best case a coinflip, likely a dog, sometimes drawing nearly dead. Foldyfoldyfoldfold.