River action?

[Joe Tall]

20/40 Foxwoods...same game as the Flop action post. I am on the button just after the 85s SB hand.

6 limpers to me and I limp w/6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif both blinds come along.

8 to the flop for 8SBs:

K /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG bets out, nealy asleep kid calls, 2 others call, I call, a blind calls, 6 to the turn for 6.8BBs:

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif

It's checked around.

River: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG bets out again, now the asleep-kid wakes up and raises as UTG mutters to his side of the table, "s.o.b., didn't see the spades". Let is be noted: when I was in the BB w/K2 and the flop was raised and cold called, UTG in this hand said, "does everyone have a King??" and called, to show K7s at the showdown.

I... <font color="white"> called 2 cold</font>

[W. Deranged]

I think you'll win often enough (20%) to merit throwing in the 2 BB, but I don't think you have a value edge here so I think raising is bad.

The tough question is what to do if it's three-bet and it's one bet back to you. I think you can fold pretty easily if it's three-bet and capped and it's two back to you.

Why didnt you raise the flop?

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didnt you raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not drawing the nuts and I don't like getting 3-bet with a 6-high flush draw.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why didnt you raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not drawing the nuts and I don't like getting 3-bet with a 6-high flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that kind of weak/tight? The game is short handed and you are worried about a higher flush draw? Why not raise for a free card.. and if 3-bet, cap for a free card?

If you are going to be worried about not drawing to the nuts, I'm not sure why you would limp with this hand.

p.s. I know that you are a better player than me, so hopefully you will point out any flaws in my logic here /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
The game is short handed and you are worried about a higher flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

We took 8 to the flop so we are not shorthanded not sure if this changes your thought process but it needs to be noted.

[private joker]

My gut is telling me to fold. Calling might not even get you to showdown.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise for a free card.. and if 3-bet, cap for a free card?


[/ QUOTE ]

If the EP flop better 3-bets, he may knock out the flop callers between making my raise much less profitable.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise for a free card.. and if 3-bet, cap for a free card?


[/ QUOTE ]

If the EP flop better 3-bets, he may knock out the flop callers between making my raise much less profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if more than 2 fold though. From the way you described the table, these guys sound like they like to call.

If you are not going to raise here for a free card, I'm not sure when you ever would because you always run the risk of the original raiser 3-betting and knocking people out.

Do you only raise for a free card when you are also raising to protect/buy outs with something like Axs where you are trying to clean up your ace?

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to be worried about not drawing to the nuts, I'm not sure why you would limp with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in the answer to this, as well.

-McGee

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didnt you raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is my general feeling that many small/medium stakes limit hold'em players greatly overestimate the value of non-nut flush draws.

Note:

1. If anyone else has a flush draw we're almost certainly drawing dead.

2. We have no other significant outs beyond the flush draw.

3. The multiway nature of the pot makes it more likely that someone has hit a hand and so less likely that you can get a free card. We are parlaying here: a bunch of players need to acquiesce to your plans to take a free card for it to happen.

Edits:

4. As Joe said, relative position is bad and makes it more likely that our raise will knock players out if EP three-bets.

5. While it is true that we would have an equity edge here if we had the nuts, if we only have 5 outs on average we no longer have a significant edge even in a five way pot. I'm not saying we need to discount that much usually, but we do need to discount our non-nut draw, probably as far down as 7 outs (instead of 9), and that puts us in a territory where other considerations (like the fact that our raise may knock others outs and so forth) probably swing this to a call.

[adios]

I would guess that your pot equity in this situation is greater than your "fair share" which would call for a raise IMO. On the river IMO it's a call and call me a hopeless chaser but I'm not folding if three bet.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are not going to raise here for a free card, I'm not sure when you ever would because you always run the risk of the original raiser 3-betting and knocking people out.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a combination of not having the nut-draw, having no-other outs and the board consistency. A K9x board is more likely to be re-raised than a 962 board.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
A K9x board is more likely to be re-raised than a 962 board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah... ding. While I consider relative position and the number of people that may call/fold to an EP 3-bet when making a free card raise, I've not considered the texture of the board... I only really thought about the general agression level of the original raiser. Taking the board texture into account is pretty obvious now that you point it out, but I don't think I ever have....

This thread probably just added something like 0.05 BB/100 to my theoretical win-rate. Thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
6 limpers to me and I limp w/6 3 both blinds come along.

8 to the flop for 8SBs:

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The game is short handed and you are worried about a higher flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

?

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
6 limpers to me and I limp w/6 3 both blinds come along.

8 to the flop for 8SBs:

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The game is short handed and you are worried about a higher flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

?

[/ QUOTE ]

I got confused because of the other hand he posted where he was talking about playing a short handed game. I read the hand quickly and thought 6 went to the flop because 6 went to the turn.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise for a free card.. and if 3-bet, cap for a free card?


[/ QUOTE ]

If the EP flop better 3-bets, he may knock out the flop callers between making my raise much less profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this would be a really bad thing? If you make your flush on the turn, there will often be redraws to flushes higher than your 6 high flush and the will come in a fair amount when players are still in the hand. Even if 4 spades are out on the river can you really bet them for value if there are multiple customers? From the way this group of players has been described you won't be losing too many customers to a sometimes 3 bet from original player.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
If you make your flush on the turn, there will often be redraws to flushes higher than your 6 high flush and the will come in a fair amount when players are still in the hand. Even if 4 spades are out on the river can you really bet them for value if there are multiple customers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I rarely worry about 2% shots.

[Victor]

call. he may have trip qs. he may have 45s.

i also agree with just calling the flop for reasons you said.

[Joe Tall]

As you can see from the white print in my original post, I called but not after tanking for a bit. I thought all about the turn and why he checked if he had 2-pair, well, he didn't have 2-pair so he's not full and then I thought what did he take the flop off with? JT, QJ gutters and JT bets the turn so he just made trips w/QJ much more often than I think he raises a flush as I think a strong flush plays the flop more aggressively as they would likely have straight redraws an over to clean up, etc. The flop/river-better has a weak King if he doesn't have me smoked but he's too weak to re-raise a flush on a paired board and I believe his muttering is true as it was in the K2 hand.

I called, the river better/mutterer folded and the a sleep kid showed Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and said, "fck, I didn't see the spades either" and my baby-flush was good.