Do you think this is a bluff? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Scuba Chuck

11-28-2005, 12:51 PM

This is a $22. No reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t515)
SB (t1405)
BB (t630)
UTG (t485)
Hero (t1540)
MP1 (t1225)
MP2 (t825)
CO (t1375)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, SB calls t375, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1050) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets t500, Hero ...

tigerite

11-28-2005, 12:54 PM

I'd just have pushed pf. You aren't intending to fold the flop now are you? Especially with 1/3rd your stack in the pot. I push here, for sure. If he has an ace, so be it. Can't really see how you can get away from this.

11-28-2005, 01:01 PM

If you push here, you played it fine.

Scuba Chuck

11-28-2005, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just have pushed pf. You aren't intending to fold the flop now are you? Especially with 1/3rd your stack in the pot. I push here, for sure. If he has an ace, so be it. Can't really see how you can get away from this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think this is a bluff? If you think his bet is legitimate, why couldn't folding with ~1100 chips be bad?

tigerite

11-28-2005, 01:07 PM

There's just too much chance he has a lower pair, a ten, a straight draw or just complete air here. I mean, with two aces on the flop, he's going to think you whiffed, because the chances are you don't have one. I see no alternative to pushing here. If you want to get tricksy you can call and then try to induce a bluff on the river, or something. But I don't see how you can fold.

SonnyJay

11-28-2005, 01:12 PM

I don't think you can get away from this. I don't think there are a ton of players at $22s betting into a preflop raiser with trip aces on the flop. I'd expect to see a T more frequently than an A, but that's just me. I push.

-SonnyJay

kevstreet

11-28-2005, 01:34 PM

If you flip flop this situation and you have AQ (or any Ace for that matter) and first to act what would you do? I think I'm check-calling or check/raising if I'm him. Of course he could be very sophisiticated and think that you're thinking that or just a dope that donk bets right in to you.

bluefeet

11-28-2005, 01:39 PM

Interesting hand. No, I don't think he has an Ace...baring a genius "he'll never put me on an Ace if I bet THIS amount". I think he has 77-99 personally. Maybe KT, or my personal favorite - blue JT's. None of which is fun to play OOP having called off close a 3rd of your stack. Dunno...maybe a read of yours would indicate him calling with one of these hands.

Assuming you've decided to not get away from this hand (I have) - it looks to me like he bet precisely the amount he was willing to spend to find out if YOU have an Ace.

Tigerite's idea of not making it that easy on him is an interesting one. He also is retaining 1000ish by folding. He's not calling a push from you here without the Ace. Would he try again on turn if you tanked/called the flop? Doubtful, but considering we are likely only losing to a 2-outer it'd be fun to see if he'd move on the turn for you.

11-28-2005, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There's just too much chance he has a lower pair, a ten, a straight draw or just complete air here. I mean, with two aces on the flop, he's going to think you whiffed, because the chances are you don't have one. I see no alternative to pushing here. If you want to get tricksy you can call and then try to induce a bluff on the river, or something. But I don't see how you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially agree with the don't see how you can fold part.

SonnyJay

11-28-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Tigerite's idea of not making it that easy on him is an interesting one. He also is retaining 1000ish by folding. He's not calling a push from you here without the Ace. Would he try again on turn if you tanked/called the flop? Doubtful, but considering we are likely only losing to a 2-outer it'd be fun to see if he'd move on the turn for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting idea. Though I think it's riskier than bluefeet suggests (since I think it's frequently 5 outs instead of 2) you may be able to call and see if he'll move in on the turn.

I've only begun to experiment with the idea of calling in situations like this (ie. a push folds all worse hands but I could get him to push with a worse hand if I call) so I don't know if the potential of 5 outs to beat you is too many. It kind of seems like a lot to me but it's an interesting line to take here.

-SonnyJay

11-28-2005, 01:50 PM

The more I think about it the more I prefer calling to going allin. Bet the turn if he checks though.

Scuba Chuck

11-28-2005, 01:52 PM

I guess my question is this: If he had an ace, wouldn't he have played this differently? If he had AK/AQ, wouldn't he have played this more aggressively preflop? If he had a weaker ace, wouldn't he either check or push this flop? This bet just seems so strange.

wuwei

11-28-2005, 01:59 PM

I don't see this as a preflop push, unless I've already entered push/fold mode. If that's the case, then I continue pushing with 10BB or less on the basis that my opponents will likely open up their calling standards. I would have raised to 375-400.

With no read, the preflop calling range at the $22s is something like 77-AA, AK-AT, KQ, and possibly some more suited broadways depending on the opponent. Obviously the hands involving aces or kings are less likely considering we can account for two of each.

Is it a bluff? Probably not. I imagine it's some sort of made hand. However, we're ahead of all the made hands not involving and A or TT, so I'm not getting away from this hand on the flop without a read. Especially when you consider that most players will check trips on this flop.

bigt439

11-28-2005, 02:12 PM

Alright, here's my take on the hand and the thread in general.

- You can not fold; he doesn't play an ace like this very often... why would he?
- Bluefeet said he wouldn't call your flop push with anything other than an A... I disagree strongly. I think a T calls you 95% of the time and PP's call a bunch too.
- I don't like pushing pf at all because I think a smaller raise extracts so much more value.
- I think calling the flop is superior to pushing it, but not by too much. He's drawing to 2 outs or has you killed (which I think is very rare, to reiterate) so why not call the flop and check a safe turn because it'll be almost impossible for him to fold anything by the river?

GtrHtr

11-28-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it the more I prefer calling to going allin. Bet the turn if he checks though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if you call the flop bet, and villain pushes the turn with his remaining t450ish?

freemoney

11-28-2005, 02:18 PM

this hand should be amazingly standard.

bigt439

11-28-2005, 02:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it the more I prefer calling to going allin. Bet the turn if he checks though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if you call the flop bet, and villain pushes the turn with his remaining t450ish?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't seriously be thinking about folding?

11-28-2005, 02:31 PM

sure you can think about folding. Your Kings may be... in a bad way. What if he is playing A/K or A/Q suited.

I guess it comes down to... Is this the hand you want to make or break your stack with...
What do you think?

11-28-2005, 02:31 PM

No its surely not a bluff. Betting into the preflop raiser on that flop is suicide unless you have some of it.

Whether he has u beat or not is another question which is dependent on any reads u have.

I think he is asking the same question you are asking. "Do you have an Ace ?".

Call is a better option as u will only have your push called by a hand like Ax or TT.

If he checks the turn then your push/bet should take the pot down

citanul

11-28-2005, 02:33 PM

i don't think it's a bluff. i think that you are ahead of his range though.

c

SonnyJay

11-28-2005, 02:42 PM

tigerite

11-28-2005, 02:46 PM

Agreed with citanul. I also think he will call a T, JJ or QQ if you push.. but probably fold most everything else. So for this reason I reckon a call might just be better.. I don't think either pushing or calling is bad though.

11-28-2005, 02:58 PM

I really hope this is not a serious question.

Just in case it is the answer is call. The whole point of calling the flop is to induce the turn bluff, not to induce the bluff, then fold to the bluff and hand villain 500 more chips, duh. If you're going to fold then fold the flop but as I said already I hate folding.

Scuba Chuck

11-28-2005, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think it's a bluff. i think that you are ahead of his range though.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, this is what was on my mind. Cit, you said it succinctly. I guess, I would be more concerned about a check than a bet here. But, in general, why are you saying this?

The Yugoslavian

11-28-2005, 03:27 PM

Something curtains might say here:

[ QUOTE ]

Folding would be huge outrage.

[/ QUOTE ]

And when asked why his next post would be some semi-coherent ramblings:

[ QUOTE ]

So ok the players are so bad. He could have anything here. Folding would be such a ridiculous mistake given the size of the flop pot. ok, I can see calling maybe but really you should just push, it doesn't really matter. but if anyone thinks you should fold here they will never be WORLD CHAMPION like myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yugoslav

citanul

11-28-2005, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think it's a bluff. i think that you are ahead of his range though.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, this is what was on my mind. Cit, you said it succinctly. I guess, I would be more concerned about a check than a bet here. But, in general, why are you saying this?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you know why i'm saying it.

i'd be more concerned with a check than a bet (though at the 22s i really don't honestly know).

the odds he has an ace are lower since there are two on the board.

etc etc all that stuff

but when i say i don't think it's a bluff i think that he means his bet to be for value, so i think he has something like: some ace, some pair, any T, king high, possibly Q high, maybe some other stuff thrown in there. if there's a flush draw on the board, which i can't remember any more, it could be that too. so i mean, his range probably has fewer outright 9 highs or whatever, and more stuff that is feasably valuebettable here. i'd expect this to be like the range above, not a bluff, but something you're ahead of by a bunch.

c

Scuba Chuck

11-28-2005, 03:43 PM

OK, I thought we were ahead here too. At the time, I did not think about how to best play this. I was too stunned by the bet/situation, that I thought about it too long, and I just called. In reflection, I realize now that this is the best move. As pushing gives our villain a reason to fold. Calling gives our villain an opportunity to fire his remaining stack on the turn.

My reason for posting is that I'm starting to get a feel for some really strange situations lately, and am starting to get a better sense at really following my read. I'll post another hand in a moment as an example. I just don't think an ace bets this way here.

For those that are interested, here's how it played out. Results in white if you care.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t515)
SB (t1405) SB has Jd Kh 
BB (t630)
UTG (t485)
Hero (t1540)
MP1 (t1225)
MP2 (t825)
CO (t1375)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, SB calls t375, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1050) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets t500, Hero calls t500.

Turn: (t2050) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets t455 (allin), Hero calls t455.

River: (t2505) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: t2505

tigerite

11-28-2005, 03:43 PM

You forgot the white bit. I think he probably has KT.

Scuba Chuck

11-28-2005, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You forgot the white bit. I think he probably has KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, look further.

citanul

11-28-2005, 03:46 PM

i don't think there's much difference between calling and pushing on the flop, if there is, it probably slants slightly to calling, as you did. and yeah, you did forget the results.

GtrHtr

11-28-2005, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it the more I prefer calling to going allin. Bet the turn if he checks though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if you call the flop bet, and villain pushes the turn with his remaining t450ish?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't seriously be thinking about folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

I asked a question on how the line would go if we called the flop bet vs whatever else anybody came up with on how to play the hand. Where is my recommendation to fold?

Everybody has an opinion. Some say call, some say push PF, some say push the flop, whatever. I asked a question that should answer itself. Why extend this thing with a call? If he pushes the turn after we call, we are still in the hand and likely not folding for another t450. I'd think if you put t500 in on a call on the flop, you may as well put him all in UNLESS you are 100% sure hes on a bluff and then you can let him bet for you. Unless you can see his cards, I don't know how you could ever put him on a bluff with that kind of %.

tigerite

11-28-2005, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
LOL, look further.

[/ QUOTE ]

AH yes. Oh well, wasn't far off.. lol.

1C5

11-28-2005, 03:49 PM

I see the results. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

11-28-2005, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Something curtains might say here:

[ QUOTE ]

Folding would be huge outrage.

[/ QUOTE ]

And when asked why his next post would be some semi-coherent ramblings:

[ QUOTE ]

So ok the players are so bad. He could have anything here. Folding would be such a ridiculous mistake given the size of the flop pot. ok, I can see calling maybe but really you should just push, it doesn't really matter. but if anyone thinks you should fold here they will never be WORLD CHAMPION like myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I miss curtains semi-coherent ramblings.

But then we have you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The Yugoslavian

11-28-2005, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think there's much difference between calling and pushing on the flop, if there is, it probably slants slightly to calling, as you did. and yeah, you did forget the results.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already covered all this and more doing my curtains impersonation.

N00btard!

Yugoslav

GtrHtr

11-28-2005, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
duh.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice, do me a favor, grow up.

citanul

11-28-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I see the results. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

nice hide!

11-28-2005, 04:19 PM

Wow, so they still stick their whole stack in the middle on a gutshot draw at the $22s.

Encouraging.

citanul

11-28-2005, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, so they still stick their whole stack in the middle on a gutshot draw at the $215s.

Encouraging.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

bigt439

11-28-2005, 11:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it the more I prefer calling to going allin. Bet the turn if he checks though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if you call the flop bet, and villain pushes the turn with his remaining t450ish?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't seriously be thinking about folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

I asked a question on how the line would go if we called the flop bet vs whatever else anybody came up with on how to play the hand. Where is my recommendation to fold?

Everybody has an opinion. Some say call, some say push PF, some say push the flop, whatever. I asked a question that should answer itself. Why extend this thing with a call? If he pushes the turn after we call, we are still in the hand and likely not folding for another t450. I'd think if you put t500 in on a call on the flop, you may as well put him all in UNLESS you are 100% sure hes on a bluff and then you can let him bet for you. Unless you can see his cards, I don't know how you could ever put him on a bluff with that kind of %.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really sure what you're saying or how you arrived at it. Like I said earlier, I like calling the flop better than pushing, but I don't think it makes a big difference. The "you can't be thinking of folding comment" was for when you asked what to do if he pushed the turn. That would be horrendous... like reaaaaaaaaaly bad. Your bluff % idea doesn't really make sense. Just think 'er through, you got this one. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

curtains

12-06-2005, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a $22. No reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t515)
SB (t1405)
BB (t630)
UTG (t485)
Hero (t1540)
MP1 (t1225)
MP2 (t825)
CO (t1375)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, SB calls t375, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1050) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets t500, Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't push preflop, I would raise to like 350-400. I would move allin on the flop, if he has an ace congratulations to him.

jeffraider

12-07-2005, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just have pushed pf

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon man that's criminally bad.

PS nice hand Scuba I play it identically to you! Very nicely done!

bigt439

12-07-2005, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a $22. No reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t515)
SB (t1405)
BB (t630)
UTG (t485)
Hero (t1540)
MP1 (t1225)
MP2 (t825)
CO (t1375)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, SB calls t375, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1050) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets t500, Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I would move allin on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we do this? A call seems vastly superior.

curtains

12-07-2005, 04:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a $22. No reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t515)
SB (t1405)
BB (t630)
UTG (t485)
Hero (t1540)
MP1 (t1225)
MP2 (t825)
CO (t1375)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, SB calls t375, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1050) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets t500, Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I would move allin on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we do this? A call seems vastly superior.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh CMON, the opponent has like 450 chips left and the pot has about 2k in it, don't [censored] around in such situations.

bigt439

12-07-2005, 05:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a $22. No reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t515)
SB (t1405)
BB (t630)
UTG (t485)
Hero (t1540)
MP1 (t1225)
MP2 (t825)
CO (t1375)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, SB calls t375, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1050) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets t500, Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I would move allin on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we do this? A call seems vastly superior.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh CMON, the opponent has like 450 chips left and the pot has about 2k in it, don't [censored] around in such situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually looked back through this thread and posted earlier that it doesn't much matter if you push or call. I still don't think it makes much of a difference and worded my last response like a tool; however, I do think calling is clearly better than pushing. If you check the turn through and then bet the river he'll call with a lot more than he will on the flop and he's drawing to 2 outs the whole way. I mean I understand that it's not a huge edge either way, but EV is EV; I just find myself doing things like that a lot, saying F it who cares he barely has anything anyways... but I think that line of reasoning costs us money and I was referencing this hand as an example.

curtains

12-07-2005, 05:08 AM

Im not sure its more +EV to flat call. He will call almost anything on the flop getting 5-1 pot odds and having almost no chips left. Also in a sit and go, being eliminated is a disaster. Its possible that some opponents won't put another cent in the pot with a hand like 33, unless a 3 comes. I'm just not into making fancy plays in gigantic pots when my opponent has almost no chips left, seems a bit too greedy to me, especially in a sit and go format, where the penalty for being eliminated is so great.

tigerite

12-07-2005, 07:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd just have pushed pf

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon man that's criminally bad.

PS nice hand Scuba I play it identically to you! Very nicely done!

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have added, "if I've been particularly active of late". i.e., been a bit of a pushbot. Sorry, rushed the reply at the time.

bigt439

12-07-2005, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure its more +EV to flat call. He will call almost anything on the flop getting 5-1 pot odds and having almost no chips left. Also in a sit and go, being eliminated is a disaster. Its possible that some opponents won't put another cent in the pot with a hand like 33, unless a 3 comes. I'm just not into making fancy plays in gigantic pots when my opponent has almost no chips left, seems a bit too greedy to me, especially in a sit and go format, where the penalty for being eliminated is so great.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. That's fair enough. If you don't think it's +EV, then obviously don't do it. It just sounded like you were saying push because what the heck he barely has anything anyways. But if you're doing this because you think it has a higher EV then that is cool. And good point about the "penalty" for being eliminated. I think it's still pretty close either way, but I get what you're saying.