Am I drawing dead?

[PokerFink]

Reads:

CO is a bad player. He has only sat for a few hands, but has already managed to go broke by re-raising preflop with AJs and then calling all-in from a third player who pushed over top.

UTG is loose and is probably a marginally winning player. I have a pretty good read on his betting, his small bets are generally small hands but when he fires for real bets he has something. He's gotten all in once so far tonight and showed the nuts.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">CO ($44.70)</font>
Button ($79)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($144.55)</font>
BB ($23.50)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($190.15)</font>
MP ($70.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($13) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $20</font>, CO calls $15, Hero calls $15.

Turn: ($73) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $20.7 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $20.70, UTG calls $0.69.

River: ($135.10) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Action is on hero with $100 left and a dry side pot....

My thinking on the flop: Obviously this is very passive, but one of my rules of thumb is not to semi-bluff bad players. He's going to pay me off when I hit, so why get FPS? After the check/raise I'm getting excellent odds to call and I close the action, so this is an easy call. I no longer consider a Q or K to be outs.

My thinking on the turn: Uh oh. As I said, I'm hesitant to splash against UTG when he is firing away for big bets. I'm confident he has something. He definitely raises JJ preflop, but 88 and TJ are out there. TJ has me especially scared. I ponder, but getting 5.5-1 I don't see how I can fold. If he bets more here I muck.

My thinking on the river: One time! Ok, now what?

(Edit to add: yeah, duh, I can make a straight flush. But I meant drawing dead to that, ie, villian has a house already on the turn)

[scdavis0]

Check/fold unless he bets like 1/5 pot

[trumpman84]

Nah...you aren't drawing dead ..the A /images/graemlins/club.gif and 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif gives you a straight flush which will surely beat villain's quads.

And no..I'm never folding here on the river with less than the pot in my stack. I think I lead here for $50 or maybe go all-in. It will be hard for villain to fold whatever he has in this size of a pot for $50 which is why I chose that as opposed to going all in because villain's turn bet is telling me that he isn't that strong or is unsure of his hand or that he has a full house and wnats you to hit your flush. Reguardless, if you were going to fold when you made your flush, you should've folded the turn when the board paired.

[trumpman84]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/fold unless he bets like 1/5 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh..I don't think putting lots of money into a huge pot on a draw, then check folding when you hit is good poker...that's just me though, I might be wrong.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/fold unless he bets like 1/5 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh..I don't think putting lots of money into a huge pot on a draw, then check folding when you hit is good poker...that's just me though, I might be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm positive that it's not "just you" but it just so happens you are in fact wrong.

Hero's hand is a draw to all but the most dense of hand readers-- flush draw being the most obvious. Any reasonable villain is not betting the river with less than a boat... in a dry sidepot no less...

To OP: Folding/calling the turn is pretty close (the str8 flush outs may swing it), but his bet looks very transparent. He wants you to get there drawing dead. The only reason for calling is to hit your draw and praying the river goes check/check.

[trumpman84]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm positive that it's not "just you" but it just so happens you are in fact wrong..

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems very weak tight to me...villain could check raise the flop with a variety of hands that coincide with his turn bet. His range includes, but is probably not limited to QJ (top pair/open ended str8 draw), JT, J8, AJ, TT, 88, T8, AA/KK (slowplayed), a flopped straight (Q9/97) Remember..villain is loose, so all of these hands are not outside of his range. His turn bet is either a full house that wants you to make a flush, or a weak hand that is looking for a cheap showdown in a big pot, so I don't think the turn bet is out of line for any of villain's holdings except for maybe a straight.

Most of these hands will make a crying river call of a 1/3-1/2 pot sized bet on the river in this size of a pot...calls a loose player is probalby going to make, but almost all of the losing ones will check behind, so my default play here would be to block/value bet the river and fold to a raise, but hero is not deep enough for that. If he bets $50 and gets raised, he only has to put in $50 more, so my default play changes to either push all-in or bet smaller and be prepared to go broke.

I don't give up &gt;1 buy-in pots with a flush unless I have a real good reason to (double paired board...3 of a kind board... or I have a deeper stack than the pot and am put all-in on the river and I have a read that villain wouldn't do this with a hand I beat) and I can't find one

[orange]

I don't understand the flop. Isn't this a standard bet/3-bet all-in here? You have an OESFD, and the way you played it, you scream to them your on a FD. I try to get the money in ASAP.

I think the turn is very close. It is player dependent IMO,but with such good odds, I think I call.

I can definitely see villan (UTG) having say, a J10 here. I think I c/c a marginal bet on the river. I want to go to showdown.

[Hattifnatt]

I would lead the flop and probably 3-bet all-in if someone raises.

[soah]

If you bet $50, he calls with hands you beat? If he raises that bet, then it's safe to fold? Or is it not that simple against this guy?

[scrapperdog]

If you were worried about drawing dead you should have folded the turn. I am not going to take a draw unless I can get value out of it when it hits. If you dont feel like you can bet your draw when it hits then dont take it.

[troymclur]

All in on the flop IMO. After the UTG re-raise of course. You're probably behind a set, so its really a matter of you wanting to get in a race with the added possibilty of pushing somebody off a set (which isnt likely to happen)

As played: River, i check fold, as much as it might hurt.

[soah]

He has more than enough immediate odds to call on the turn even if his implied odds are nonexistant. Assuming he's drawing live, which is consistent with his read on UTG's betting habits.

And I still don't understand the fascination with shoving it all in on the flop with no folding equity. You guys should just go play blackjack or something.

[PokerFink]

Couple of thoughts here, and I'll let this run a bit longer before I post results.

1) My read isn't good enough to know whether he would only raise a $50 river bet all-in with a boat. I consider him to be a somewhat reasonable player, so presumably he would have to have a boat, but I can't be sure. The flop c/r and turn bet just tell me that he isn't screwing around with like bottom pair; he has something. But that something does not have to be a boat.

Edit: Also, yeah, I think he's calling a river value bet with hands I beat. I was thinking about this a lot last night, and the truth is that if he doesn't have a boat he doesn't really beat anything that I bet $50 with on the river, but at the same time he's getting better than 3-1 and will probably make a crying call.

2) I'm with soah on the flop play. I don't understand why everyone wants to fastplay this flop. My two opponents are a) an idiot that will pay me off if I hit and probably let me draw cheaply and b) a guy with a lot of chips that I might be able to stack if I hit. I'm confident enough in my postflop play that I don't need to just shove it in.

[DoomSlice]

You can actually value raise the flop if you expect the 3rd guy to stick around. Shoving the flop is on the lesser side of a mistake, and not a mistake if there is any FE at all.

[soah]

You can also value raise a later street when your equity is 80-100% instead of 50%.

[DoomSlice]

Why not both? Certainly hides your hand a bit more than waking up when the flush/straight hits, no?

[soah]

At which point on the flop are you advocating putting more money in? The only reason you're getting an overlay is because you have two opponents in the pot with you. Once one is all-in, you're getting 2:1 on a 2:1 draw for the remainder of your money. And once you make the pot that big, you're going to have to call off the rest of your stack on the turn. As the cliche goes, why settle for the best of it when you can have way the best of it instead?

- edit - against one opponent you're getting even money on a coin flip. Getting 2:1 is not the correct way to write it. I've been awake too long to figure out what I'm talking about.

[DoomSlice]

My apologies, didn't see that CO was so short.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]

And I still don't understand the fascination with shoving it all in on the flop with no folding equity. You guys should just go play blackjack or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

But overbetting the flop is so much fun!

I think pushing the flop here, while tempting on the face of it, is a bad idea. If you have any fold equity it's versus hands that we would prefer call. We are ahead of everything but a set. Lets play poker here.

[PokerFink]

Let's move this discussion to the river.

River: ($135.10) (3 players) 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero bets $50 (with $50 more behind)...

Thoughts?

(By the way, if he pushes I probably vomit, call, post on 2+2 and go to bed)

[TheWorstPlayer]

This spot sucks but I think you are too short to get away with the bad player padding the pot. I probably bet 50 and hope he looks me up with whatever he has. Obviously make the crying call on a push. This is a pretty tough hand, though. With more room to play, I would lead the turn. But with these stacks, it is so tough. I might have led the turn for $50 and folded to a push assuming I'm drawing dead. I'm not sure, though. This is just a very tough hand with these stacks. I'm not sure there is a good line which doesn't commit you here. I mean, if he bet $40 on the turn, would you call? Then are you going to fold on the river when you make a hand? Obviously not. But his bet of $20 kinda reeks more than a bet of $40 would? I think if you can KNOW that he only makes that weak turn bet with a full house, just fold the turn. If he can make it with anything else, then you have to go broke on the river.

[soah]

You would bet the turn with king high into a dry side pot? Is that just to prevent him from making a big bet against us, or am I just too sleepy to figure out what you're talking about?

[TheWorstPlayer]

It's not yet a dry side pot. And if shortie calls and biggie folds I'm really liking our chances. It may clean up a K or a Q and we have tons of equity heads up in what was a three way pot.

[soah]

Yeah, I'm definitely too sleepy to continue posting anything strategy-related for now.

[PokerFink]

Thanks for the comments everyone.

I'm intrigued by TWP's idea to bet the turn. The problem I see with betting $50 there is that it doesn't really represent a boat. Did I really check/call twice with a set/2p on the flop and then suddenly fire out $50 with a boat on the turn? That makes no sense. I'm not sure what a $50 bet represents, but the only thing it folds out is probably AJ or J8, and I want those to stick around since even my K/Q are clean against them.

Results

I bet $50 on the river and got a call, which made me very happy.

UTG has Q9 for the flopped straight, CO has QT for trips and MHIG.

Considering what they held I pretty much played it perfectly, but my line is awful against JT since it's going to cost me all my chips when the club hits.

[Side Note]

"Drawing dead" is one of my favorite poker phrases. I'm not sure if everyone has thought about this or not, but it has a fun second meaning besides the normal "no card in the deck will help you". When you have say five outs you are "drawing to hit five outs." When you're drawing dead, you're often "drawing to go broke." In other words, you're drawing to a certain number of cards that will break you if they hit. If UTG holds JT, I'm drawing to 13 cards that will break me. I'm literally drawing to become dead. Hence the phrase, "He was drawing dead and he got there."

[/Side Note]

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, as I said, with these stacks I don't really like betting the turn because even if biggie pushes, you're getting pretty good odds on a pretty big draw and does he REALLY only do that with a full house? Meh. But with deeper stacks, where even if he smooth calls the turn with a full house, you will be able to get away after value betting the river, then I like it. I like it because what I don't want to happen is to have biggie check and then shortie push and then I call and then it is PAINFULLY obvious that I have a draw and then I will never get paid by UTG and I will be sandwiched and UTG can blast over the top because it is clear that I have nothing and he can get me out with his middle pair or whatever the hell he might have and take his chances against the short stack and that will just suck for me. Also, it will be very hard for him to raise even with a straight on the turn if stacks are very deep because he has to worry about getting stacked by a boat (say, bottom two pair on the flop). Once you check the turn, it is so obvious that you are drawing, I don't like it at all.

Another devious play that I just thought of, actually, that you could have used on this hand is to bet something like 12 on the turn which may freeze up biggie or may also get him to call thinking that he will re-raise once shortie pushes but not realizing that shortie's raise is too small to reopen the betting. I have seen stupider things happen. Obviously against decent opponents I won't usually take that line. I would be more likely to actually bet $8 with a full house or something against good opponents. Whatever. There are obviously lots of options and I am now rambling. But basically your line says DRAW all over it and I would definitely price you out on the turn if I were biggie with a straight. Tough spot, though, and not much you can do about it. I think check and call something small or just fold to something big is not a bad line.