I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River

This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero????

[Surfbullet]

I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK.

Surf

[sthief09]

i think the turn is too cute. i guess you feel like no one has anything and by betting you will get 2 folds. you certainly cant count on the button to bet. hes not that aggressive and he is super loose which means its likely he calls the flop with nothing.

the river i think is a fold. button's play is exactly in line with a flopped boat. if the pot were bigger id call since you have a strong board kicker. as it stands here, the pot isnt so big, you are hoping to chop, and you have 2 semi-sane players going to war.

so youre getting 10-2 or 12-3. you need to have each of them beat 40-50% of the time. i think the button is 50/50 having a flopped boat or AK. do you beat the SB 1/3 of the time? well i think you chop with him pretty often. maybe half the time you lose, half the time you chop. then you win .5*(.5*.5) = 1/8, so youd need 9-1 if thats right

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK.


[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i see AK from the button a lot here.

[augie00]

i call 2 more cold and curse my rotten luck/play

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero????

[/ QUOTE ]

these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal.

that is to say. bet the freakin turn.

Barron

Thanks Barron,

I'm not saying whether I called or folded yet, but I'm glad someone took the flip side or there wouldn't be much discussion here.

This decision was TOUGH.

[I am fish]

I would have played the hand a lot faster. I would have probably raised the flop, especially if the button is so loose. I sure as hell would have bet the turn if I just called on the flop. I mean there were some draws on the flop so I think you can get some action.

Also if you play it faster you'd have a better idea where you're at by the river imo.

[Lmn55d]

I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

It's a call for me, though I expect to grimace now and then as a better 5 or pockets 77 shows up. The way it was played I don't really put anyone on a 5, nor KK or QQ. I'd guess most of the time someone hit top pair with the K and someone else made 2-pair.

If it were 3 bets to me cold, I'd probably fold. But at 2 bets I just can't fold trips here.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero????

[/ QUOTE ]

these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal.

that is to say. bet the freakin turn.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]


the turn check makes it harder to fold. the button checked last to act, now he raises? the sb apparently whiffs on a checkraise and now check-3bets. plus hes not getting great odds, and there is a parlay effect which is huge

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

[/ QUOTE ]


i can understand the logic behind it. the pot is tiny, the sb has pretty much thrown up a white flag, and the button probably doesnt have anything either. theres not much to call with on that board, so hell risk a free card in exchange for someone taking a stab for him

the main reason id bet there (and raise the flop too) is because i take shots at lots of pots and id like to show down that i play trips the same. there are some players who always check in unraised pots with a big hand and often take stabs with nothing. its not hard for even a novice hand reader to see this

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

me too. I forgot that in my original reply. I play these types of hands fast unless I expect my opponents to fold overcards too easily, in which case I play everything fast.

Surf

[ QUOTE ]
It's a call for me, though I expect to grimace now and then as a better 5 or pockets 77 shows up.

[/ QUOTE ]
A5 is the only better 5.

[Lmn55d]

you make some good points, but I think sb is calling more than you think he is. I could see his flop bet/turn check as being an OESD or flush draw and he doesn't want to get raised on the turn. I also think the poor playing button will call with a lot of hands that he wouldn't bet (include A high hands that he didn't raise preflop b/c his PFR is 5).

I also agree that this should be a fold despite hero's failure to define his hand. The combination of a loose passive raising (I don't think he raises a king too often there) and a nonmaniac sb check/3betting doesn't seem to bode well.

[Subfallen]

Call, not close? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

[mscags]

Well I would have bet the turn here, but see as you didn't I think you need to fold this river. I think someone has you outkicked or is full.

[Spicymoose]

I don't see what is so tough about your decision. You have to pay 2 to try to win 8 or 9. That means you you need to be good 1 in 5. Button surely doesn't have trips. SB might have you beat, but he could also have a 5 that you chop with, or some other random crap.

As others have said. Bet the turn.

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see what is so tough about your decision. You have to pay 2 to try to win 8 or 9. That means you you need to be good 1 in 5. Button surely doesn't have trips. SB might have you beat, but he could also have a 5 that you chop with, or some other random crap.


[/ QUOTE ]
The odds are a lot worse than that. He may have to pay 3 and even when he wins he will be splitting this small pot most of the time. I lean toward folding this one (not positive it is correct though). And yes definitely bet the turn.

[MAxx]

It looks incorrect to be slowplaying trips here. I think that error is more important than the river decision IMO.

[MarkL444]

im just going to say whats been said already that the turn check sucks on a board with both a flush and straight draw against a SB and very loose limper.

[TStoneMBD]

i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

[/ QUOTE ]


a bunch of people have said easy call but provided no justification. would you like to be the one to explain to me why its so easy? fwiw i still think its a fold because both opponents have us beat some portion of the time

[Danenania]

I would tend to raise the flop. Represent a vulnerable hand to mess with SB and the loosey will still call 2 with pairs, aces, and a bunch of other hands. After calling you just have to shut him out on the turn anyway (plus plenty of turns can kill your action).

Turn check is very bad. SB has something but is afraid of the Q. Button is 75/5. At least one of them is calling, often both. Don't think Button is betting very often.

River looks like an easy fold to me. Elaborate slowplays from multiple on-the-passive-side players = you're toast (and the odds aren't good).

[B Dids]

I want to know more about the SB.

Is he willing to check trips on the river hoping that one of you finally shows an interest in the pot?

Is he completing with 77 in this spot? KQ? A7? Seems like his raising range should be pretty large, given that he's got a chance to get HU with a pretty massive donk (allbeit OOP).

I have a really hard time seeing us being good and thanks to playing the flop and turn in a pretty loathesome manner, the pot is small enough that you can fold.

[luckyharr]

Because of the lack of turn aggression, I think your opponents could be going to war here over who has the better king. The SB looks like a somewhat reasonable player and I can't believe he would try for a turn c/r with 75 or 77 and then go for a check/raise again on the river after whiffing the turn. The button was last to act on the turn and chose not to bet, then raised you on the river. I think this indicates the river helped him and the only hand that improved to beat you would be a strangely played KK. Sure, you are going to see some horribly slowplayed hands at showdown some of the time but getting 9-2 and a likely 5-1 with a button overcall makes this a call in my opinion.

I think you should have bet the turn.

[BottlesOf]

How do we feel about a flop raise?

[MrBig30]

I just cant believe how many think a river fold is correct. We have trips in a 3-handed game and the turn was checked through for crying out loud. MAYBE we lose this more than 50% but not by much (a split seems likely), and no way do we not have the odds to see the showdown IMO. Also consider if necessary the tilt-factor of quite possibly folding the best hand and losing a whopping 10BB. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

[/ QUOTE ]


a bunch of people have said easy call but provided no justification. would you like to be the one to explain to me why its so easy? fwiw i still think its a fold because both opponents have us beat some portion of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see why anyone has him on a 5 for calling once and checking the turn. Sometimes someone is full, other times they have KQ AK K7 blah blah blah. Had you bet the turn, I think you can make a case for a fold.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
How do we feel about a flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate it, why shut out the button? but we just gotta gotta gotta bet the turn. i mean seriously. the turn check was so bad IMO...i see josh's arguments but i still think it's godawful especially since button is likely coming along with his pair.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

[/ QUOTE ]


a bunch of people have said easy call but provided no justification. would you like to be the one to explain to me why its so easy? fwiw i still think its a fold because both opponents have us beat some portion of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see why anyone has him on a 5 for calling once and checking the turn. Sometimes someone is full, other times they have KQ AK K7 blah blah blah. Had you bet the turn, I think you can make a case for a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


neither player is aggressive, and i doubt either is tricky/smart enough to think that no one has anything and take a shot like a check-3bet. one of them slowplayed something. i can admit the button will often have AK, but KQ is not likely. people do not often slowplay pairs but will slowplay a boat like this.

i think people dont realize the effect of a parlay like this one. both players very well might have us beat (though they are dependent on one anoter and that's important), and we will only win the % of times beat beat the SB TIMES the % of times we beat the button. if it's 50% and 33%, thats not good enough.

[Surfbullet]

The fact that we chop most times we don't lose makes our odds much worse as well.

Surf

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How do we feel about a flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate it, why shut out the button? but we just gotta gotta gotta bet the turn. i mean seriously. the turn check was so bad IMO...i see josh's arguments but i still think it's godawful especially since button is likely coming along with his pair.

[/ QUOTE ]


i really dont think its as bad as you guys make it out to be. granted i would bet but i dont think its as bad as everyone makes it out to be.

ill try again to see if at least people see some merit in it, and if not, ill shut up about it. taking the players individually. an average aggressive SB bets out 3 ways into a 755 flop. thats usually a draw, pair, A high, or maybe sometimes a complete bluff. then he checks the turn. i think that the vast majority of the time he is done with this hand, but he might be coerced into betting the river if everyone checks.

now look at the button. he will call that flop with probably at least 90% of his range, and probably closer to 100%. so we cant just put him on a pair. even these terrible players will stop chasing their J9 on a board like this. but he has some aggression in him so maybe he will take a stab at it. and if not, we maybe can let them catch a pair to pay us off with.

the underriding concept is that the pot is small compared to the size of the bet. when this is the case our priority shifts from winning the pot to winning extra bets.

*one thing i have been thinking about lately is our opponents implied odds. for example, if we let the SB catch a gutter, it will likely cost us 3-4 bets. so in our attempt to gain a bet, not only did we lose the 3 BB pot but we lost 3 BB in implied odds. so we have to be more careful in general, because the real size of the pot for our opponent is the money in the pot + the money theyll take of our stack if he hits. this applies here and is probably a good reason to bet*

[baronzeus]

one thing i thought was that the flop was Q55 and not 755. yes, im pretty sure button comes along with anything, which i didnt consider originally.

[Lmn55d]

dont you think this sort of sb checks the turn with a flush/straight draw a lot?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
dont you think this sort of sb checks the turn with a flush/straight draw a lot?

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah actually this has to be the #1 reason to bet. he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that bad? Will you generally bet a turn UI against 2 out of position?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that bad? Will you generally bet a turn UI against 2 out of position?

[/ QUOTE ]


in an unraised pot like this, ill probably take another stab. for some reason, they will make looser calls than if there was a PFR. its like the chances you have AA makes up for the fact that the pot is twice as big. ARBITRAGE. pump the pot, win just as often

[Drontier]

I must be going insane. I was thinking this is a definite cap. I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time. Buttons hand looks like K7 or AK and his AF and PFR is very in line with these 2 hands. Maybe even KJ or smaller. I think we definitely have button beat over 85% of the time. I think sb is the real threat. He whiffs a checkraise on the turn and tries again on the river... But he bet the flop. Hes doing something extremely fancy or he has air/misclick/KQ. Even K7 works for him. A 75/5 player with his AF could easily be reconsidering betting his 7 again in fear of a raise from a 5 or someone hit the Q. Then when its checked through, he could have hit the K and figured his hand is easily good? I'm having a very hard time putting sb on ANY hand. But if hes a 75/5 (probably meaning he doesn't think like the rest of us) I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.

[BottlesOf]

but is your equity in a spot where you want 1 or 2 calls on that turn? I'm talking about if you only have the flush draw, b/c you implied that the sb would be the type to check the fd there, and it seemed like this would be really bad.

[luckyharr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time....I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that 33% is the number we need in order to cap for value. 33% assumes that the button will always call your cap and also assumes that you are never chopping the pot.

OK guys......

Here's what I was thinking.

A flop raise is only good when the pot is bloated preflop by a raise and some calls. The fact that this pot was unraised preflop and has only 3SB going to the flop makes a flop raise absolutely horrendous. Why attempt to shut out the button? Fast playing is much better when someone indicates they have a strong holding (as in raised PF).

The turn bet/check can go either way. Checking is not terrible like everyone says. There are a few underlying factors:

1. I felt the button would bet the turn ~50% of the time (some portion of that because he hit a queen and some portion to take a stab at it). I know that if button bets the turn, SB will almost always call. Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.

2. There's very little chance that a free card will hurt me on a whiff. The pot is small, so I don't mind calling only one bet or folding on the river to significant action if a flush card hits.

3. By not defining my hand on the turn, it encourages them to take river shots. I'm aware that my hand doesn't look like trips by the river and will adjust accordingly.

Keep in mind that #2 and #3 only exist if the button checks.

In this hand, I called 2 more on the river and the loose button FOLDED!!

I'm not yet supplying the remainder of results in order to generate further discussion.

[I am fish]

Don't post the results. I don't think that's healthy.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't post the results. I don't think that's healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can I post them somewhere else on the internet and then create a very difficult scavenger hunt so only the people who are really interested can find them?

[I am fish]

Ha!.. you know my point though. Nice thread by the way.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't post the results. I don't think that's healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is one hand where curiosity is perked enough that he would should eventually post them or at least say whether he won or not. Not only would ppl now appreciate it, but Im sure ppl eventually reading this in the archives would as well. (which is kind of irrating, reading a post in the archives and u really want to know what happened at showdown or after turn action and its never followed up on. Christ thats annoying.)

I intend on posting results, but there's still some discussion left.

About the river call...

Half the posters say easy call, the other half say easy fold. I guess it's not that easy.

[gila]

Correct me if these numbers are wrong (i'm pretty sure some are since I was up all night researching office chairs), but, at any rate.

The SB's holdings:

Hands that beat you: 77 three ways, 75 three ways, k5 three ways, q5 three ways, and a5 four ways (Not counting KK or QQ which I am assuming he doesn't have). So, that's 16 hand combinations he could have that you lose to assumming he does not have a high pocket pair.

Now you have to figure what hands he would 3-bet here (if any) that you would beat. Again, lets assume he does not have pocket aces. Would he 3-bet kq, k7, and ak? If so, then that is 12 ak's, 9 kq's and 9 k7's.

If he 3-bets all these hands that is 30 combinations you beat vs. 16 that beat you (and of course we are not even considering the hands that would tie yet).

So, easy call here if he would 3-bet these. What if he would only 3-bet the kq and k7. You still have 18 wins vs. 16 losses and still have a fairly easy call.

If he only 3-bets the kq then you become a 16-9 dog (again, we are throwing out the ties for now) to have the best hand but still have a call getting 4.5-1 odds.

So, the way I see it, the only way you have a fold is if you think the sb will NOT 3- bet the kq or worse. And if that is the case you will need to caculate the number of wins vs. losses. vs. ties and see how that stacks against the pot odds. Which, in this small pot, would probably make it a fold.

So, what I think this hand comes down to, is: will the sb 3-bet kq or worse in this spot? If yes, call, if no, fold.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

The turn bet/check can go either way. Checking is not terrible like everyone says. There are a few underlying factors:

1. I felt the button would bet the turn ~50% of the time (some portion of that because he hit a queen and some portion to take a stab at it). I know that if button bets the turn, SB will almost always call. Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.

2. There's very little chance that a free card will hurt me on a whiff. The pot is small, so I don't mind calling only one bet or folding on the river to significant action if a flush card hits.

3. By not defining my hand on the turn, it encourages them to take river shots. I'm aware that my hand doesn't look like trips by the river and will adjust accordingly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey House,

I like your analysis. I have a few comments:

1. Where did you get this 50% number from? That's a very high %age for him to have a queen or "take a stab." Realistically I think this # is gonig to be much lower.
What's very important here is the 2nd part of this statement:
[ QUOTE ]
Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've really overestimated A) the amount of time button bets B) the amount of time either of them has a hand that can call a c/r. A pot-protected c/r in this tiny pot screams trips. Betting helps disguise your hand and may get you raised by a Q now or by a hand that improves on the river.

2. Good pont. Small pots like this you want to win more bets, not win the pot.

3. I'm not sure how much this is a factor. you only fail to define your hand when it checks through - your hand is painfully obvious when you c/r. When you bet, your hand is still undefined(as to its true strength) whether you get raised or called.

Surf

[ QUOTE ]
Hey House,

[/ QUOTE ]
Still LMAO over that one.

Surf,

An aggressive player will bet that turn close to 80 or 90% of the time from the button, and a passive player maybe 20%-30% of the time. This guy isn't all that passive considering his VPIP of 75. As a matter of fact, he raised the river and folded to a 3-bet. That shows us two things:

1. He's capable of taking shots (he just decided to do it on the river and not the turn).

2. He really had absolute air that couldn't call the last bet getting 11-1 as an action closer.

I don't know if it's really 50% or even close to that, but I am willing to take my chances at maximizing the pot. If the turn misses, I can get it on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
3. I'm not sure how much this is a factor. you only fail to define your hand when it checks through - your hand is painfully obvious when you c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's OK. The damage is already done and I can practically turn my cards over....Now let them pay for their draws.

[ QUOTE ]
When you bet, your hand is still undefined(as to its true strength) whether you get raised or called.

[/ QUOTE ]
No one's gonna think I peeled on the flop with a rag queen trying to hit a pair. I'm pretty sure if I bet the turn, button should put me on 25% trips and SB should put me on 75% trips. I don't want them to start their hand reading yet (at least not for a single BB), as I have too many of their possible holdings completely burried.

[gila]

[ QUOTE ]


So, what I think this hand comes down to, is: will the sb 3-bet kq or worse in this spot? If yes, call, if no, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

And, of course, wtf does the button have?

Obviously not enough to call closing the action at 11-1. The more I try to understand poker players, the more confused I get. A 75/5 doesn't consciously use a raise/fold line on the river unless he's got c0cksauce.

[billyjex]

I bet this turn 100 out of 100 times.

[MrBig30]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if these numbers are wrong (i'm pretty sure some are since I was up all night researching office chairs), but, at any rate.

The SB's holdings:

Hands that beat you: 77 three ways, 75 three ways, k5 three ways, q5 three ways, and a5 four ways (Not counting KK or QQ which I am assuming he doesn't have). So, that's 16 hand combinations he could have that you lose to assumming he does not have a high pocket pair.

Now you have to figure what hands he would 3-bet here (if any) that you would beat. Again, lets assume he does not have pocket aces. Would he 3-bet kq, k7, and ak? If so, then that is 12 ak's, 9 kq's and 9 k7's.

If he 3-bets all these hands that is 30 combinations you beat vs. 16 that beat you (and of course we are not even considering the hands that would tie yet).

So, easy call here if he would 3-bet these. What if he would only 3-bet the kq and k7. You still have 18 wins vs. 16 losses and still have a fairly easy call.

If he only 3-bets the kq then you become a 16-9 dog (again, we are throwing out the ties for now) to have the best hand but still have a call getting 4.5-1 odds.

So, the way I see it, the only way you have a fold is if you think the sb will NOT 3- bet the kq or worse. And if that is the case you will need to caculate the number of wins vs. losses. vs. ties and see how that stacks against the pot odds. Which, in this small pot, would probably make it a fold.

So, what I think this hand comes down to, is: will the sb 3-bet kq or worse in this spot? If yes, call, if no, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am pretty sure this is a bit off as you are not considering all the (very likely) hands that make this a split: 52, 53, 54, 56, 58, 59, 5T, 5J. Too tired to figure out how many combinations this is but quite a few obviously.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Half the posters say easy call, the other half say easy fold. I guess it's not that easy.

[/ QUOTE ]
the ones who said easy fold are just really bad.
never fold this.

[gila]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if these numbers are wrong (i'm pretty sure some are since I was up all night researching office chairs), but, at any rate.

The SB's holdings:

Hands that beat you: 77 three ways, 75 three ways, k5 three ways, q5 three ways, and a5 four ways (Not counting KK or QQ which I am assuming he doesn't have). So, that's 16 hand combinations he could have that you lose to assumming he does not have a high pocket pair.

Now you have to figure what hands he would 3-bet here (if any) that you would beat. Again, lets assume he does not have pocket aces. Would he 3-bet kq, k7, and ak? If so, then that is 12 ak's, 9 kq's and 9 k7's.

If he 3-bets all these hands that is 30 combinations you beat vs. 16 that beat you (and of course we are not even considering the hands that would tie yet).

So, easy call here if he would 3-bet these. What if he would only 3-bet the kq and k7. You still have 18 wins vs. 16 losses and still have a fairly easy call.

If he only 3-bets the kq then you become a 16-9 dog (again, we are throwing out the ties for now) to have the best hand but still have a call getting 4.5-1 odds.

So, the way I see it, the only way you have a fold is if you think the sb will NOT 3- bet the kq or worse. And if that is the case you will need to caculate the number of wins vs. losses. vs. ties and see how that stacks against the pot odds. Which, in this small pot, would probably make it a fold.

So, what I think this hand comes down to, is: will the sb 3-bet kq or worse in this spot? If yes, call, if no, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am pretty sure this is a bit off as you are not considering all the (very likely) hands that make this a split: 52, 53, 54, 56, 58, 59, 5T, 5J. Too tired to figure out how many combinations this is but quite a few obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just considering the wins vs. losses. But, the ties are very easy to figure. You had them all there. Only one five left, so there is 4 52's, 3 53's 4 of every thing else 54's, 56's, 58's, 59's 5T's 5J's.

That should be it. 31 ties if the sb will play ANY hand. I don't really think these change the decision though since they are pushes. What is the difference if you consider winning 30 hands and losing to 16, or if you consider winning 30, losing 16, and tieing 31? Still makes for an easy call if your conclusions about what he will 3-bet are correct.

[gila]

So I believe these to be the numbers considering wins/ties/losses and concluding that he does not have pocket aces, kings, or queens.

If he 3-bets KQ, K7, and AK:
30 wins
31 ties
16 losses

If he 3-bets KQ and K7 only:
18 wins
31 ties
16 losses

If he would only 3-bet kq:
9 wins
31 ties
16 losses

If he will 3 bet everything BETTER than kq:
0 wins
31 ties
16 losses.

The first three situations are obvious calls getting 4.5-1 odds. How big would the pot have to be to make the last option a correct call?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

That should be it. 31 ties if the sb will play ANY hand. I don't really think these change the decision though since they are pushes. What is the difference if you consider winning 30 hands and losing to 16, or if you consider winning 30, losing 16, and tieing 31? Still makes for an easy call if your conclusions about what he will 3-bet are correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tying makes a big difference. Theoretical spot. Assume you are losing 9 out of 10. Pot lays you 4-1. You fold. Give yourself 30 split hands and you can call. Split equity helps bridge the gap when pot odds aren't quite there.

Krishan

[gila]

Yes, it does matter in the math and in many decisions, but I don't believe it matters in THIS decision with only 31 ties. Of course, it depends what spot you are in and how big the pot is. If your are the favorite, then obvioulsy the ties will make you a smaller favorite, and if you are a dog, the other way.

But, for ties to make a 16-9 dog NOT call a 4.5-1 bet, I would think there would have to be in the hundreds of ties, at least. If somebody could do the math for this, I would sure like to see it.

At any rate, I still do not believe 31 ties turns a 16-9 dog hand getting 4.5-1 from a call to a fold, but please prove me wrong.

Edit: I'm trying to figure out the effects of the ties here, and, actually, I don't think any number of ties would change any of the call/fold decisions in this particular problem. I guess, on that last statement I made, the more ties you could have the BETTER your call, is that correct? And on the hands where you are a favorite, no amount of ties would make the call -ev either (in this situation).

[Danenania]

I don't think the turn check is bad because a free card is dangerous, I think it's bad because you miss value.

real tough, u cap it pansy

[StellarWind]

Raise the flop because 1) Button is very loose, 2) this is how you would play a seven or small pocket, and 3) there isn't going to be a "good" time to raise. This isn't stud and you are stuck with your lousy position for the whole hand.

Bet the turn. This error dwarfs anything you decided to do on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River

[/ QUOTE ]
Bad move. Excessive thought time here could invite a cap.

You have to call the river. The basic principle at work is that you induced this action with your turn check so you cannot now fold. You may easily have confused them into overplaying their hands. This is what happens when you slowplay without adequate muscle to back it up.

Quite likely BB has a king, possibly K7. When a player who rarely folds has an AF of 0.8 that's not really very passive at all. This could be some super-duper slowplay on his part but kings are a lot more common than boats. Even if he is slowplaying it could be just a five.

No doubt SB really does have a five and you just need to hope you are chopping. The absence of an isolation PFR is some comfort concerning 77 and A5. Of course no guarentees to say the least.

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop because 1) Button is very loose, 2) this is how you would play a seven or small pocket, and 3) there isn't going to be a "good" time to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I still think a flop raise is horrible in an unraised pot. I don't want the button folding overs or the SB giving up too early. The fact that SB gave up anyway is a fluke.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River

[/ QUOTE ]
Bad move. Excessive thought time here could invite a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't get this.

If button has a losing hand, I'll be glad to invite a cap. If we're tying, I don't mind a cap. If he's got a better hand, he's not capping because I took my time.

[ QUOTE ]
1) Quite likely BB has a king, possibly K7......Even if he is slowplaying it could be just a five.

2) No doubt SB really does have a five....

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you meant button in the first statement, and if you did, and both above statements are true, I'm quitting Party Poker. There should only be 4 fives in any deck.