A couple of Bubble hands

[GtrHtr]

Back to back bubble hands. Seat 1 started off as a real lag, tightened up in level 3, then showed some remarkable luck in level 5 calling pushes with any A, any face card etc. The other 2 players were equally clueless on bubble play. Lots of minraises, calling minraises from the blinds etc.

Last orbit I’d pushed from the button and CO. Blinds go up in 7 hands

Table Table 67506 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Hero ( $1250 )
Seat 4: Guy in seat 4 ( $1115 )
Seat 7: Guy in seat 7 ( $1750 )
Seat 1: Guy in seat 1 ( $3885 )
Trny:17718021 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 4s 7s ]
Guy in seat 1 folds.
Hero ?


Table Table 67506 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Hero ( $1350 )
Seat 4: Guy in seat 4 ( $1015 )
Seat 7: Guy in seat 7 ( $1750 )
Seat 1: Guy in seat 1 ( $3885 )
Trny:17718021 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 3h 8s ]
Guy in seat 7 folds.
Guy in seat 1 folds.
Hero ?

Fold, Fold.

I don't know what buy-in this is but at my level, you would get the 'clueless' calling with KT or A4. Especially if you pushed back to back last orbit, these might be good hands to take a break from the aggression. I think I push Ax, Kx, and maybe QJ+ after the last orbit.

[bluef0x]

First I probably fold.

Second easy push.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
First I probably fold.

Second easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming this is because BB has a shorter stack, so your FE + times you suck out, combined with the fact that losing won't bust you makes pushing with any two +$EV.

I ask because this comes up for me a lot; a short(er) stack is to your immediate left. I tend to push any two whenever it is folded to my SB, but I'm not sure if that is correct -- I'm wondering, for example, how much bigger my stack should be for this to always be +$EV, and if it's still always +$EV if the BB catches on and widens up his calling range a lot.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First I probably fold.

Second easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming this is because BB has a shorter stack, so your FE + times you suck out, combined with the fact that losing won't bust you makes pushing with any two +$EV.

I ask because this comes up for me a lot; a short(er) stack is to your immediate left. I tend to push any two whenever it is folded to my SB, but I'm not sure if that is correct -- I'm wondering, for example, how much bigger my stack should be for this to always be +$EV, and if it's still always +$EV if the BB catches on and widens up his calling range a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, both of these hands are significant +EV pushes. Is there anything significant about the stacks that makes one an easier push over the other?

And yes, the SB hand is probably the easier push.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
First I probably fold.

Second easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

At first thought, this is my analysis as well. Here's what is worth discussing on these two hands.

Hand 1: We fold here because we hope we can find a better/stronger hand on the next orbit. Furthermore, from a stack management issue, we're currently not the shorty. But, relatively speaking, essentially we are. Blinds are pretty painful for us.

Hand 2: Ugh, our hand is stronger... But now we're in a more difficult position than the last hand. (BTW, I'm having difficulty with the HH. How did 100 chips pass from seat 4 to hero? Shouldn't they have passed to Seat 7?) What's really difficult now, with a push here, is that seat 4 should be more liberal in his calling standards. Maybe he will or won't recognize that.

Overall, both of these hands are +$EV push-wise. Post play anaylsis makes this an interesting discussion. The one thing I think about the most is that hand 1, calling ranges should be tighter. BB can 'risk' folding in hand 1 more than in hand 2.

Thoughts?

push & push. You don't have much to work with and need to give yourself a shot to win. First place usually gets 50% of the prize pool. This is a prime example of M play. By the levels of blinds I'm assuming your M is less than 5. Your effective M is certainly less than 5. There's no need to get blinded off. Put your chips in the pot and see what happens.

I disagree that the second hand is better than the first. Technically 8 high is better than 7 high but we must consider that we will be going in as an underdog against any hand that calls. Therefore, I would prefer the hand with more possibilities. 74s has more straight and flush possibilities and gives you a better chance to suck out.

[tigerite]

I'd have said push both, but the 2nd to be closer than the 1st.

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree that the second hand is better than the first. Technically 8 high is better than 7 high but we must consider that we will be going in as an underdog against any hand that calls. Therefore, I would prefer the hand with more possibilities. 74s has more straight and flush possibilities and gives you a better chance to suck out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you're less likely to get called with one opponent left to act than two left to act. When you're looking to make these pushes, your chance to pick the hand up without getting called is the biggest factor in making the push. The marginal difference in hand strength is very slight compared to this. If he had the 83 in the first hand and the 47 in the second hand I'd give the same advice, but not because of the hand strength.

I realize that this is a simplistic assumption, and a good opponent will know that your pushing requirements increase when you only have one person left to act. However, you're still much better off trying to push one guy off the hand than two when your primary value is in the fold equity of your push.

-SonnyJay