3/5 NL: Waiting for the turn = bad?

[beset7]

9-handed live 3/5 NL. Effective stack size for relevant parties is about 900. I have the been playing very aggressively but I have only showndown big hands and the table has noticed.

LAG (LAG preflop and plays very poorly postflop, weak/tight folds and bad "big" calls) UTG+2 raises to 25 (standard PFR in the game for some reason). One caller in MP (a very weak/tight old-timer) and I call on the button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif

Flop comes 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG+2 leads out for 75, MP calls, I call. Turn is 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif UTG+2 bets 75 again, MP calls, I move all-in.

edit: fixed flop. Sorry.

[Muisyle]

Run away when you see the second 8 of clubs.

Scratch that, I like the push on the turn, if they fold, collect the money and leave, if they call and you lose, declare a misdeal and get your money back.

[ajmargarine]

You have the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif both in your hand and on the board.

[FlyingStart]

Why do you move in when you are giving odds? Is because you think MP might be drawing at a better flush? It must look scary to a weak tight UTG+2 villain and MP2 is not getting correct odds to draw so I kinda like it. I think I would have raised the flop or just called the turn tho..

[beset7]

Heh. Woops. I was half asleep. the Board is 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif on the flop.

[beset7]

bump. totally uninteresting?

[soah]

This doesn't make much sense. What do you put them on? The LAG doesn't sound like the type of guy that's going to let go of his overpair here. Would the weak-tight guy just call down with a set? You can probably bluff him off marginal holdings but if he's playing a big hand passively you are screwed. That turn card was pretty much the worst card in the deck for you. No matter what you're up against you've lost outs (except for A8 and K8, I guess?)

After reading the hand again though I'm confused as you said the LAG is both weaktight but also makes bad big calls. This seems pretty contradictory. I guess you're trying to say he's more likely to make heroic calls against big suspicious bets but fold against reasonable bets? I'm just confused now.

You're getting a good price to draw on the turn. I like calling there. Even if raising is +EV I'm not sure it would be more +EV than calling. But as I said, I'm confused.

[scdavis0]

Bomb the flop please

[ajmargarine]

Raise the flop. TP + flush draw = favorite in the hand at that point. (hopefully) /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Given you just called the flop, you should just call the turn as well. You got great odds, so you should probably just take them.

[beset7]

Yeah the UTG+2 guy is a wierd dude. He is LAG preflop and then plays badly after the flop. The opposite of whatever seems correct is what he does. He has overcards after that turn bet something like 100% of the time. When the old timer calls the turn he has an overpair or a flush draw. He never reraises preflop so TT+ is not out of the question at all. He wouldn't slowplay a set with two to a flush on the board but he would play an overpair passively. My thoughts were a weak tight player is not calling a raise preflop with two suited clubs unless it contains the ace or king. I don't think I can really count my FD for [censored] because the only way I'm getting action on it if I hit on the river I'm toast.

Funny about the turn. I thought it was a great card. But raising the flop looks better and better all the time. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[soah]

It's a good card if you're ahead. But it's a bad card if you're behind. Fortunately though your kicker is big enough that pairing it will give you a winner against weak overpairs. If you had 87s then the 2 would certainly take away several more outs. I'm not really sure it's that important though, the more pressing concerns are how often you are able to bluff successfully, and how often you'll be drawing dead when you get called. A couple more outs aren't enough to affect your decision unless it's so close that it doesn't really matter what you do.

[beset7]

thanks soah I appreciate your thoughts.