Sucking out

[Chris Nichelson]

25-50 w/15-25 blinds.

I am two from the cutoff w/5-5. Loose raiser immediately to my right open raises and I 3 bet, hoping to get heads up.

Weakish tightish woman on the button caps it (whoops!) loose raiser calls and I call.

Flop=Q-8-6 rainbow.

check, check, bet, call, I call.

Turn is 9 of diamonds, putting two diamonds on the board, check, check, bet, call, I hesitate. I have now an idiot end gutshot, and a pocket pair, and if all my outs are clean, it would mean I have six outs. Problem is of course that my idiot end gutshot gives anyone with a ten a higher straight, someone might have a flush draw and the 7 of diamonds might not be good for me, plus my set makes anyone with a six a straight. The only saving grace is that I have the 5 of diamonds in my hand. Finally, I have to be pretty convinced at this point that someone has a better pair.

I throw caution to the wind and call.

river is the seven of diamonds.

I think I managed to make a poor decision on every street, frankly (I didn't bet the river . . . )but my real question is this: How bad is the flop call?

I was berated by the capper's husband for this particular bad decision, but I think the turn call was much worse. The capper's husband didn't really discuss the pot size in relation to the bet size, but had he thought about it, I was getting almost sixteen to one on the flop, and a little worse than 21-2 on the turn to try and catch a card that I might not want to catch.

[Dynasty]

...I think the turn call was much worse.

This is some very poor hand reading. It's plainly obvious that the weak-tight Button has a monster staring hand, probably AA or KK. The loose player on your right could have lots of hands and there is no reason whatsoever to put him on diamonds, a Ten, or a Seven. I would think you usually have all 6 outs and will almost always have enough outs to call getting more than 10:1.

You aren't putting your opponents on hands based on their play so far. You seem to be just worrying about your opponents having big hands and big draws counterfeiting your outs.

The flop call is fine because if you hit your set, you will be paid off big time with a turn check-raise.

The turn call is much easier. Folding would be a substantial mistake. However, your failure to bet the river with your straight does make your turn call worse.

[Louie Landale]

Great post; read my mind about "hand reading".

Except for the flop call. I count hero is getting 15:1 for his 22:1 draw. Check-raising the turn and getting paid off by both players yeilds an additional 12 for 27:1. That's the best you can expect and is pretty slim over-lay considering bottom set is by no means a sure winner.

But the 6 unclean out turn call is a no-brainer against 2 preflop raisers in a big pot.

The other problem is that Hero, ahead of time, didn't try to figure out if Villian Lady is going to bet her one over-pair on the river. Profiling helps here, but its important to figure that out BEFORE you see the river card since that will dictate whether you bet out or check raise the river.

- Louie

[Chris Nichelson]

Maybe didn't explain it well enough in original post. First raiser was a loose raiser who had often shown suited connectors after his raises. He played reasonably after the flop though, and could easily have something that screwed with my outs. His turn call worried me.

I was pretty sure that all my outs were clean against the capper.

I hit the seven. It made two pair for the first raiser (6-7 suited. My 2 outer was no good, as he would have made a straight.

CN

[Dynasty]

You explained it quite well. Your conclusion that your turn call was bad is just wrong.

Loose raisers could have anything. It's a mistake to assume an opponent is negating your outs when they could have so many different holdings.

I was pretty sure that all my outs were clean against the capper.

You should have been 100% sure.

[Chris Nichelson]

The fact that the seven was a diamond scared everyone I think.