View Full Version : Can I call a river bet with T-high?
kurosh
11-27-2005, 03:53 PM
10/20 3-handed. I haven't played much with this guy, but he has been playing decent so far.
Button folds, I raise T7/images/graemlins/heart.gif and he calls in the BB.
Flop: 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet, he calls.
Turn: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I check, he checks.
River: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
I check, he bets. I call?
I'm not entirely sure it's worthwhile with such a small pot and him having a K some portion of the time, but assuming that you were going to try and take it down wouldn't a raise serve you better (even if it looks incredibly fishy)? Seems like an awful fuss for 3BB.
Surfbullet
11-27-2005, 04:05 PM
I can't imagine calling here. What do you expect him to have, 57?
What's the weakest hand we could call with that would show a profit here? I'd want at least A-hi.
Surf
Q high GK would be pretty solid here.
baronzeus
11-27-2005, 04:16 PM
no. bet the river if you wanna try to win this hand. i hate calling.
kurosh
11-27-2005, 04:17 PM
His hand range here is gigantic. He is defending nearly any two. With the postflop action, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a pair, except maybe a king. Nearly any two are peeling that flop. Ace-high bets the turn some of the time.
On the river, a king is clearly betting. Ace-high shouldn't bet, but maybe it does sometimes. Q-high probably doesn't bet because what better hand is folding? I am calling with A-high all the time here and I think most people would too. J-high bets some of the time to get rid of Q-high.
Erik W
11-27-2005, 06:13 PM
I'd always call this with A,Q, high if u bet out.
If u wan't to win it you need to checkraise.
You put in 2 bets to win 4.
If you think he folds more than 1/3 you will be ahead.
He will be hardpressed to call with A-high here.
This is good to use at times but not too often of course
and is very player dependant.
NLSoldier
11-27-2005, 06:25 PM
I sorta like a call here. Heres my thinking.
1) He likely 3bets with an ace preflop and even if he has on and didnt, he probably wont value bet it on the river.
2) If he has a Q he will probably check through expeccting that he might be good and that you wouldnt fold an ace anyways.
3) he could have a jack and be trying to get you to fold a Q, but I think he will often check with a jack for most of the same reasons as with a Q.
4) Metagame is very important HU and whether you win or lose, the fact that you were willing to call on the river with T high is going to have an affect on how often he tries to bluff you.
It really sucks if he has T9 or T8 though /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
Danenania
11-27-2005, 06:48 PM
I would rather checkraise than call I think. Though in practice I'd just fold.
ALL1N
11-27-2005, 07:40 PM
Bet turn, then you can bet the river. I prefer a check/fold given what happened. You're actually only ahead of a very slim range, given that he'll always bet a K, yet won't bluff all the time.
baronzeus
11-27-2005, 07:59 PM
some other things...
yes bet the turn...
yes fold preflop IMO, unless you have played with him a bit and know he respects you
[ QUOTE ]
yes fold preflop IMO, unless you have played with him a bit and know he respects you
[/ QUOTE ]
Who are you? And what have you done with the real baronzeus?
Spicymoose
11-27-2005, 08:07 PM
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fold preflop
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/images/graemlins/confused.gif
T7s is strong, how can we fold? If you don't want to raise, at least complete...
Did you think he had T7o?
waffle
11-27-2005, 08:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
T7s is strong, how can we fold? If you don't want to raise, at least complete...
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it's really strong.
http://img173.imageshack.us/img173/6633/hellastrong0lr.jpg
got to push every edge, no matter how small.
<font color="white">i'm kidding, i'm kidding.</font>
Spicymoose
11-27-2005, 09:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
T7s is strong, how can we fold? If you don't want to raise, at least complete...
[/ QUOTE ]
it's really strong.
http://img173.imageshack.us/img173/6633/hellastrong0lr.jpg
got to push every edge, no matter how small.
<font color="white">i'm kidding, i'm kidding.</font>
[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for PokerStoving it. I guess it is weaker than I thought. Isn't completing better than folding though? We are getting 3:1, or sometimes 8:3. We do have the disadvantage of being out of position, but isn't folding this preflop way too weak?
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isn't folding this preflop way too weak?
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes it is. Just by calling, we're getting 3-1 on a hand that has an equity edge straight up.
baronzeus
11-27-2005, 09:40 PM
i dont like raising against decent/good players, who will correctly raise a good % of flops costing you a lot of money.
i dont like limping against decent/good players, who will correctly raise most of their hands against you.
T7s just isnt good enough for me /images/graemlins/frown.gif but that's only against good players. against players who fold too much this is fine.
edit: actually i dont know, this is probably close, but hands like this can get you in a lot of trouble against lags/good tags.
waffle
11-27-2005, 09:46 PM
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isn't folding this preflop way too weak?
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Yes it is. Just by calling, we're getting 3-1 on a hand that has an equity edge straight up.
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but a good player has position on you. he will often raise a wide range of hands after you complete. you will often be forced to fold the best hand (t high) since you are oop. not all of your equity is realized.
I'm pretty sure position doesn't make up 17% of the equity.
EDIT: Make that 25% of the equity...just by calling, we're getting 3:1, not 2:1
baronzeus
11-27-2005, 09:52 PM
it's really hard to quantify position, since it can often times cost you whole pots. (on the other hand, being OOP lets you fire a bet first and can win you whole bluff pots)
How good is this guy that we're up against???
Either you're over-rating him or under-rating yourself.
I made a mistake with the 17% and fixed the post.
baronzeus
11-27-2005, 09:59 PM
but when he raises, you are paying 1.5SB in a 4SB pot to see a -EV hand's flop OOP.
this quick reply feature is the best thing ever
Lmn55d
11-27-2005, 10:06 PM
right, and the fact that you completed gives him info that will help him push any preflop equity edge that he has. He knows you figure to have a weak hand so he can both exploit an edge with a hand like Q8 and seize the initiative. If you limp a lot with good hands this offsets this, but I doubt OP does. You're gonna have a lot of trouble realizing your equity when you're out of position against an opponent who is raising the majority of his hands.
T7s isn't -EV. Check your database.
baronzeus
11-27-2005, 10:08 PM
-EV against his range. obvious T7s is +EV in multiway pots and even HU pots in position, but not in this case.
C'mon baron, what range? He's the BB and his range is still undefined.
baronzeus
11-27-2005, 10:11 PM
i was referring to the times he raises...costing you 1.5SB. see my OP about this
even if he raises ANY 2, we are even EV OOP
I am fish
11-27-2005, 10:34 PM
If you bet the river, do you think he will fold more than 33% of the time?
kurosh
11-28-2005, 01:43 AM
Against a good player, I'm probably completing or folding here. I have no reason to believe he's good enough to not play this hand here. Most of these players suck and I'll take it down with a flop or turn bet.
mscags
11-28-2005, 02:34 AM
This is an easy fold IMHO, even if he is bluffing, he needs to be bluffing absolute crap for your hand to be good. Wait until you have something a little higher.
NLfool
11-28-2005, 03:22 AM
[ QUOTE ]
10/20 3-handed. I haven't played much with this guy, but he has been playing decent so far.
Button folds, I raise T7/images/graemlins/heart.gif and he calls in the BB.
Flop: 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet, he calls.
Turn: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I check, he checks.
River: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
I check, he bets. I call?
[/ QUOTE ]
geez is this like an Ungar or Kiril moment. T high and people are actually considering calling it? I'm beginning to think no one around here gives anyone credit for top pair or even a pair (not that I believe that may/or may not be the case). I'd think T high has a better chance on a QQJJx board. But I'd really hate for some clown to pull an Ellix Powers and laugh at me for what really is a stupid call.
Victor
11-28-2005, 03:44 AM
results pls.
kurosh
11-28-2005, 03:56 AM
He had K7o and I looked like a moron, but I still think it's +EV.
This is a badcall for the following reasons:
Cards you lose to:
Ace, duece, trey, 4, k, a, q, j, (any other pp)
Any combination of these cards make up how many hands? A lot. 9/13 types of cards beat you. The pot is miniscule. The chance that between both of his hole cards he has none of the above cards is small.
I am fish
11-28-2005, 04:08 AM
I don't think he has no pair and below a T high more than 25% of the time.
NLSoldier
11-28-2005, 04:34 AM
[ QUOTE ]
This is a badcall for the following reasons:
Cards you lose to:
Ace, duece, trey, 4, k, a, q, j, (any other pp)
Any combination of these cards make up how many hands? A lot. 9/13 types of cards beat you. The pot is miniscule. The chance that between both of his hole cards he has none of the above cards is small.
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this is a terrible way of looking at it. Villian absolutely does not have a 2,3, 4 or PP here,(because he didnt raise flop or bet turn) and does not have ace high either, because he didnt 3bet preflop (so he cant have a good ace high, and he wont value bet the river with a bad ace high.)
He also very likely does not have queen high, because he *knows* ace high isnt folding and jack high isnt calling.
so take out the hands with an ace, 2, 3, 4, Q, and you are left with the times he has a King or jack.
Now its much closer.
Petteri
11-28-2005, 10:04 AM
Calling is awful play, what do you think you can beat? If you know your opponent is habitual bluffer, you can consider raising. He most probably does not have an ace, so he needs a pair to call.
Against typical opponent this is fold.
Why did you not bet turn? You need to follow-through.
Hell no you cant call....So what if he won that hand your losing the blinds plus one raise?
I agreee witht the raise on the river to represent the strong hand you posed with the raise pre flop
Theres always the chance he was slow playing his trips off the flop...you cant just count out hands..and why risk it in a small 2 handed pot
kurosh
11-28-2005, 12:25 PM
There's a couple responses here that are something along the lines of, "omg you have t-high, fish!! that is such a terrible call."
These responses piss me off for some reason. Take a moment to think about it instead of automatically assuming.
I know im being very generous for the opponent here. But it still looks like the only thing you are beating is an outright bluff by a complete garbage hand. The pot is tiny and the margin of error is big.
NLSoldier
11-28-2005, 03:29 PM
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I know im being very generous for the opponent here. But it still looks like the only thing you are beating is an outright bluff by a complete garbage hand. The pot is tiny and the margin of error is big.
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I know we are only beating a bluff. I know the pot is tiny. I dont care. Because I think we can be very very confident about the cards that he does not hold.
For those of you saying its a terrible call, would your answer changed if a third party went through the deck and flipped all the remaining aces, 2s, 3s, and 4s face up so that you knew in fact he did not have any of those cards? My whole point is that I am almost as confident that he doenst have any of those as I would be if they were flipped face up in front of me.
RunDownHouse
11-28-2005, 04:34 PM
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Calling is awful play, what do you think you can beat?
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Are you people even reading the thread? He gave very precise reasoning for why he is calling.
I am fish
11-28-2005, 05:51 PM
Correct me if I overlooked some things, but the only holdings you beat are 98, 97, 96, 95, 87, 86, 85, 76, 75.
Chop with T7, T6, T5. Do you really think he will have exactly one of these holdings more than 25% of the time??
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I haven't played much with this guy
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His hand range here is gigantic. He is defending nearly any two. With the postflop action, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a pair, except maybe a king. Nearly any two are peeling that flop. Ace-high bets the turn some of the time .
On the river, a king is clearly betting. Ace-high shouldn't bet, but maybe it does sometimes . Q-high probably doesn't bet because what better hand is folding? I am calling with A-high all the time here and I think most people would too. J-high bets some of the time to get rid of Q-high .
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In your analysis I just feel you are giving your opponent too much credit and assuming that he will play so rationally.
I like your line of thinking, I just think you would need to have a better read on your opponent to be more sure your assumptions are correct.
The play is marginal at best, IMO.
I feel you have a higher EV by betting the river as you only need your opponent to fold about 33% of the time.
Anyway, by your assumptions, you would have to be right on your call atleast 25% of the time for a call of his bet to be correct. So, he would definetely fold any of the holdings you'd beat by calling, plus you gain by getting T, J, Q high to fold some of the time.
Why the flop autoraise? I would opencomplete here except against a LAG/TAG, in which case I would fold. Even three-handed.
Played the way you did, I would bet the turn and check-fold the river, rather than check the turn and call the river.
Surfbullet
11-28-2005, 06:55 PM
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In your analysis I just feel you are giving your opponent too much credit and assuming that he will play so rationally.
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I agree with fish here, I think you're going to see "bluffs" of his with a Q or J a not-insignificant amount of the time. Sometimes even an A. Betting an A is terrible here, but that doesn't stop it from happening.
If 1 bet is going in on the river I think we should be betting out. Personally, I'd probably c/f.
Surf
TheMetetron
11-28-2005, 07:03 PM
Okay, I've thought about this a ton today and check/fold is my choice for best play. Check/calling is the worst option and betting out is the best.
And before anybody harps on me to read the thread, I already have. It just so happens that the correct play also happens to be the most obvious. You are assuming you opponent plays very, very rationally here and that is a huge mistake against someone you barely even know. It'd probably be a mistake against most 2+2ers even.
That said, I don't think the fact that the correct answer is so obvious makes this thread any less valuable... there were a lot of people jumping to the correct answer without thinking things through correctly first. Just wanted to say thanks to kurosh for getting some good debate going... nice hand to post.
NLSoldier
11-28-2005, 07:04 PM
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In your analysis I just feel you are giving your opponent too much credit and assuming that he will play so rationally.
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I agree with fish here, I think you're going to see "bluffs" of his with a Q or J a not-insignificant amount of the time. Sometimes even an A. Betting an A is terrible here, but that doesn't stop it from happening.
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Ok, this line of thinking I can agree with. Because I am usually the first to point out that most opponents are retarded. But, assuming we knew our opponent was rational, can anyone show me a good argument refuting my reasons for calling?
TheMetetron
11-28-2005, 07:05 PM
If kurosh was playing Schneids in this hand, I would agree with your call (though betting out might be better, I haven't thought about it enough yet).
Take that FWIW.
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I think you're going to see "bluffs" of his with a Q or J a not-insignificant amount of the time. Sometimes even an A. Betting an A is terrible here, but that doesn't stop it from happening.
[/ QUOTE ]
Surf, this is directed at other replies in the thread and not at you:
Villain is a "decent unknown" according to kurosh.
I've gone back and forth with several posters about the preflop play with T7s. Personally, I think it's an easy raise, marginally good complete and marginally bad fold. Here's what I don't get:
How can a "decent unknown" possibly be sooooo great that we can't even play a +EV hand like T7s with odds (getting 3-1 on a complete and 3-2 on a raise), yet be soooo bad that he will bet a weak ace high on the river?
Those two player qualities can't simultaneously exist when trying to back up an argument for folding preflop.
I think folding T7s preflop is terrible.
One thing that hasn't been said: a suited 2-gapper will be undervalued by a hot-cold sim such as PokerStove. Offsuit disconnectors will generally be overvalued. But your positional disadvantage compensates in the other direction and does make this a close decision between folding and playing..............IF THERE WAS NO DEAD MONEY!
There's 1.5 SB of dead money: it's not even close.
DrSavage
11-30-2005, 12:37 PM
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On the river, a king is clearly betting. Ace-high shouldn't bet, but maybe it does sometimes. Q-high probably doesn't bet because what better hand is folding? I am calling with A-high all the time here and I think most people would too. J-high bets some of the time to get rid of Q-high.
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I don't get it. You say Ace high shouldn't bet and neither should Queen. You are also advocating a call with ten high. If second is correct, a bet with ace high and queen high is easy.
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