Raise 40 to Lose 80...Love Those Fish!!!

[jace]

I was running well at a good 20-40 game (passive with 5-6 players seeing flops). There are 2 limpers to me in CO+1 and I call with 5 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . Hope this isn't too bad a call in late position. Button raises. He's a big fish who plays pretty loose and aggressive. He doesn't raise with awful cards though, and I put him on any pocket pair or any two big cards. SB folds, BB calls, limpers call, and I call. 5 to the flop.

10 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

Checked to the button who bets. BB calls, limpers both fold, and I call (just one time /forums/images/icons/wink.gif ). The turn brings a beautiful:

10 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/club.gif (6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif)

BB checks, I bet instead of going for a check-raise because the button might only have AK and may check behind. Button calls my bet and says out loud, "You already have a straight, huh". I don't reply and the BB also calls. 3 to the river:

10 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/club.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif (A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif )

BB checks, I bet my nuts, and button raises!!! BB folds muttering something about diamonds and of course I reraise. He asks again, "Do you have a straight? Well, I can't beat a straight" and calls. I was so hoping that he had pocket aces to reraise, but I wasn't that lucky. Of course my hand was good and he showed A10 for top two pair.

My friend was watching this hand and told me it was so freaking obvious that I either had the straight on the turn or hit a set. My bet on the river signaled that I wasn't afraid of a made two pair with aces. Luckily, the button didn't make this read and gave me an extra $80. I thought he already knew what I had and would only make a crying call...LOL!

[David Sklansky]

Your preflop call is borderline. Your play from that point on is fine. The button's river raise is wrong but against most players, he should expect to win quite often when the ace hits.

[SoBeDude]

The button's river raise is wrong but against most players, he should expect to win quite often when the ace hits.

If he expects to win quite often when the ace hits, then how is the raise incorrect?

-Scott

[pudley4]

Because many players will fold to the raise with a hand like top pair or middle pair, especially since the Button was the preflop raiser. They expect him to have an A. So he won't get paid off many times when he does raise. Then, he's also risking being checkraised by a player who's not worried about the A - a set, straight, or even 2 pair. Just like what happened here.

Remember, the hand needs to be good at least 55% of the time when the raise is called.

[Robk]

You need to consider the chances that your hand is good when you are called . A tough player isn't likely to call the raise without a hand that beats aces up (note that 2 pair is particularly unlikely on this board). And if Aces up is no good you'll almost certainly be reraised. So even though you can expect to have the best hand most ofthe time, raising is still unprofitable.

[Dynasty]

pudley4: They expect him to have an A. So he won't get paid off many times when he does raise.

Robk: A tough player isn't likely to call the raise without a hand that beats aces up...So even though you can expect to have the best hand most ofthe time, raising is still unprofitable.

Players pay off river raises all the time. What games are you playing in where your opponents consistently fold to river raises in fairly large pots?

Sklansky is just wrong. AT will be good there a significant majority of the time and it's river raise will get called by worse hands more than often enough to make the play profitable. Hell, I think AK can make a profitable river raise there.

[PokerPrince]

I agree. Top two will be a good enough hand in that spot way more often than not AND get called by worse hands. I couldn't see myself NOT raising the river with that hand.

PokerPrince

[SoBeDude]

And you really don't think aces-up will be good there 55% of the time?

I do.

-Scott

[Softrock]

Dynasty: I agree with you in the general case but doesn't it make a big difference who it is that's betting the river and what the action has been? Seems to me this is a situation where you shouldn't just be applying a general rule and need to carefully consider THIS situation. There are many players who I'd raise on the river, a few who I would almost never raise, and also some where it would depend on how the hand had played out.

[John Ho]

I don't agree on the AK but A10 is a pretty basic raise here against most players. Most players will not lay down small 2 pair in this situation to a raise since the pot is big, as you said.

I wish Sklansky would explain his thinking here since I know of few 20-40 games I've ever played in where this raise on the end is not profitable.

[John Ho]

If 2 pair is unlikely with this board isn't a straight unlikely as well? I disagree since everyone limped but I can see your point.

So the reluctance to raise, with this rationale, is that you fear a set. I don't think you will run into a set enough to stop a raise here. What if your opponent semi-bluffed the turn with an Ace and another diamond? And it was described as a loose game.

I can't see not raising here unless your opponent is fairly predictable. I don't know of many good players who automatically check 2 pair because an offsuit ace rivers.

[CreamPuff]

The 55% doesnt apply unless you have a tell on the BB
(overcaller)indicating he's going to fold.

Im still not sure not raising is the right play,
but I know that if I was the button and
I had 2 overcallers behind me, I would
just call for sure in this exact situation.