Betting draws OOP - raised vs limped pots?

Question:

What's a standard line when you flop a nut-draw OOP?

Case 1
You limp in SB/BB (3+way pot) with Axs and flop a 2-flush with 9 clean nut-outs.
a) Lead out 50-75% of pot and reraise big if raised.
b) Check-raise?
c) check-call?

I like bet/3-bet more, but I'm not sure about a good turn line if called on flop.
Perhaps check-call turn, sometimes getting a free card!? Or keep pounding?

As i see it, the main advantages of betting the draw are twofold: 1) the fold-equity (which may be minor), but also 2) that betting gives some disguise to the hand when it hits. Also when betting 50-75% of pot you set almost decent odds for your draw considering the implied odds earned with the disguise.

Check-raising also has its merits - you could get a free draw, and greater fold-equity when you reraise - but it doesn't mix in well with my set-line of always fastplaying sets and 2pairs.

Check-calling sucks imo - no FE, and no disguise. Against certain simple opponents it might be the way to go though - like againt notorious calling stations.

thoughts?

Case 2
You call a preflop bet HU from OOP with AKs (if there's a caller in already, I always reraise BIG with AKo/AKs). You flop a nut-flush with overs.

Here I always bet/3bet - FE is much higher HU, and if you don't hit the A or K it's very likely that the pfr also missed. But perhaps that'd be a great reason to check and let him bet?

But what is good when the pfr just calls? Keep up bet/3-bet on turn or check-call, check raise? I don't know.

Thoughts?

/Zal3

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
Question:

What's a standard line when you flop a nut-draw OOP?

Case 1
You limp in SB/BB (3+way pot) with Axs and flop a 2-flush with 9 clean nut-outs.
a) Lead out 50-75% of pot and reraise big if raised.
b) Check-raise?
c) check-call?


[/ QUOTE ]
I use to lead the full pot or close to it. This way I can get the pot right there and otherwise I have outs. You also disguises your hand more than if you bet less. Many players always makes weak bets oop with a good draws, I dont like that line. If raised I usually just calls with just the draw unless I have straight+flushouts or flushdraw+pair, then I might 3-bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Case 1
You limp in SB/BB (3+way pot) with Axs and flop a 2-flush with 9 clean nut-outs.
a) Lead out 50-75% of pot and reraise big if raised.
b) Check-raise?
c) check-call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I almost always lead 3/4-full pot here.

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/3-bet more, but I'm not sure about a good turn line if called on flop.
Perhaps check-call turn, sometimes getting a free card!? Or keep pounding?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this depends on a lot of things; how many players called you, how many saw a flop, what kind of player it is. In most instances (like 60-70%) I bet again, around 75% of the pot usually.

[ QUOTE ]
As i see it, the main advantages of betting the draw are twofold: 1) the fold-equity (which may be minor), but also 2) that betting gives some disguise to the hand when it hits. Also when betting 50-75% of pot you set almost decent odds for your draw considering the implied odds earned with the disguise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are underestimating the fold equity on the flop. As I see it, it is the biggest advantage and disguising you hand is really just a by-product of the bet.

Regarding case 2, I like to mix it up. Sometimes I check-raise and sometimes I lead/call or lead/3-bet.

Just some quick thoughts.

Dumle

OK Zal - hope we can get some heavyweight to chime in here. These are important situations, and need to be played well.

I'll try to give a few decent lines here, that I think are legit and make me money.

In short, I'm also in the bet/3bet camp with nut flush draws OOP. With minor adjustments to reads in limped pots and as standard line HU in raised pots.

Case 1
say 4-way pot : SB+BB + 2 limpers : potsize 4BB.
You bet 75% (3BB)

Say you hold A5s and flop is J82 with 2 in your suit.
It's a limped pot so not much in it to win. Yet I might add.
On a nut-draw with 9 flush outs (the Ace is no good since some feeb will always limp with any A) proper calling odds would be 9:38 or 1:4.2 (like if you had to call a bet). When you hit the flush the disguise you mention adds value to the flush. So pricing your draw in at 1:3 by betting 50% is fine (you are +EV if somebody just calls), and it's not bad augmenting that up to say 75% as well which adds FE. But I'd not bet more.
It would essentially be a mistake by an opponent to call with TP-hands - his best play is to either fold or reraise.

If there's a proper reraise, you are facing AJ or 88/22 most of the time from a tight opponent. There are 9 AJ combs, and 6 sets. But a looser villain can also be on a semibluff reraise with T9 (12) or a lesser flush draw (any SC + QTs=6), or just KJ (12). (Or even just snow).

If the above hand range is correct, he'd probably fold anything less than a set which he'd push. Thus out of 15 RR hands (TAG), you can fold out 9. For the looser guy your FE is better, he'd fold 39/45 hands.

Thus a read is useful.

say 4-way pot : SB+BB + 2 limpers : potsize preflop 4BB.
You bet 75% (3BB), 1 fold + 1 RR to 10BBs + 1 fold : potsize 17, 6 for you to call.
Your pot odds are thus 6:17, or a little worse than 1:3. Calling here would not be too bad.
If you reraise to 30bbs vs TAG, you'll win 9*17 and lose 30*6, thus -36bbs /15 hands.
Against "LAG", you win 39*17 and lose 6*30 = +483bbs/45.

Thus, call flop raise if opponent is tight. If you hit, bet the turn at 20bbs, otherwise check-fold to any bet >10bbs.
Reraise (3bet) to around 30Bbs if opponent is loose, and fold to a push.

Case 2
You are SB w/ AKs and UTG bets 4bb - all fold you call.
Assume pfr has JJ/AQ.
Potsize 9bbs.
Flop J82 as above. You have 9 clean flush outs, and most likely at least 3 overcards. Say you have on average 3 OCs. This means your pot equity is around 50%.
Obviously, when you bet out you have at least some FE, and you are thus automatically +EV.
Bet 75% - 6bbs: pot 15bbs.
PFR has 36 possible hands: QQ-AA (12); JJ(3) and AK/AQ (9+12=21)
Often you win right here vs AK/AQ-hands. PFR will reraise with OPs QQ-AA.

Thus you win 21*9 = 189 on the flop.

If there's a reraise to say 20bbs, it's another 14 to call into 35. If you push, you risk 90 to win 35.

Now you face 12 OPs and 3 sets.
Your pot equities: (www.twodimes.net)
vs AA you have 38%
vs KK you have 45%
vs QQ you have 52%
vs JJ you have 26%

We tighties don't like to go broke with Overpairs, thus we fold them occasionally.
From pfr's perspective your most likely hands are JJ/88/22 (9) and AKs/AQs (2) if he holds overcards (with JJ of course he never goes away).


What to do

Note: this assumes we play against a solid opponent, vs donks/stations this is all meaningless - just call with proper odds and don't count on any FE ever.

You push all in (to 90bbs). You lay him about 1:1.5 odds which should be bad enough for overpairs. You will fold out any but the JJ's.
Thus you win 12*35 = 420bbs
For the 3 JJ sets:
the EV goes: 3*(26%*201 - 90)= - 114
EV for flop push after reraise: 420-114= 306bbs / 15 hands

Total EV(bet/push line):
Flop he folds: +189
RR+push: + 306

Thus the bet/push line is very much +EV

Note - 3betting less than a push (say 50BBs) could seem like a good idea. But it's not. You reduce the FE from QQ-AA, and will get into some coin flips when they push and you call. You will have to call a push anyway, so you gain by increasing FE.

This calculation changes just slightly if we replace AKs with AQs (only difference is there will be more KK's than QQ's this time).
Assuming overpairs will fold to a push, we actually have better equity vs JJ-sets (up to 27% from 26%).

If the pfr calls our flop bet with overs (AK) - what then:
Well we are ahead drawing to our 9 nut outs and another 4 to split.
So we are in good shape.
If opponent just calls with say QQ-AA on a coordinated board with an OP, he is making a mistake and, according to Sklansky, we therefore win by definition.

Suggested Play on turn if called on flop

If we hit the flush - we bet around pot sized. We can expect to collect nicely from overs since our bet disguised the draw somewhat, and he may actually try a bluff using the flush scare cards, representing our hand.

If we hit any A/K - well we have TPTK and nut outs. Here's a good chance for a check-raise (one of few times I make a CR in fact). But betting the pot is good too. If he also hit TPTK he'll reraise (also if he hit AA/KK-trips, but it's a less likely holding and we'll have flush outs), and we can push.

If we miss and the board pairs, we can again bet pot. It's a scary card for the pfr and gives us some FE.

If a blank hits on turn, we can check and hope for a free card. Fold to a bet that's too big for our 12 (average) outs (like >75% of pot).

OK?
Did I miss anything here?
Cheers,
Jaxz

Jaxz - great stuff, that's the kind of stuff I hope to learn here! Your lines look really good to me. Anybody else caring to comment or offer other lines? Disagree or agree with Jaxz?

Follow up question
What's the appropriate lines if you have a lesser draw from the blinds in a limped multiway pot?.

Often I'll limp in from the SB with not only Axs (as the previous post) but also with suited somewhat connected cards (like T7s) and also off-suit connectors (KQ-54), and even gappers (75o).

These are never nut-flush draws, but sometimes they flop nut OESD's, or duble gut-shots, or combo-draw with pairs, flush draws, gutshots etc.
Thus with 8 nut-outs, how do you play these from OOP? And if you get a 15-outer, with 6 nut OESD's?

And how does the number of players in the pot effect the preferred lines for these draws?
(I'm talking full ring here).

Grateful for further suggestions! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Again, thank you guys,
Zal3