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View Full Version : One gap connectors and odds


Borknagar
11-27-2005, 10:33 AM
What are the odds with a hand like 57 suited to flop atleast a straight draw or flush draw in hold'em?

Thanks for the time

BruceZ
11-27-2005, 12:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What are the odds with a hand like 57 suited to flop atleast a straight draw or flush draw in hold'em?

Thanks for the time

[/ QUOTE ]

This post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2948434) and associated links has the probability of flopping an 8-out straight draw with a 1-gapper using both hole cards (6.9%) and the probability of flopping a flush draw with connectors. The probability of flopping a flush draw with a 1-gapper will be the same as for connectors (10.94%). If we just add these, we will be double counting the cases that flop both a flush and straight draw, so we must subtract this. For connectors this is 1.2%, but for 1-gappers it will be less. Since 1-gappers flop about 2/3 as many 8-out straight draws, this should be approximately 0.8%, so the probability of a straight or flush draw is 6.9% + 10.94% - 0.8% =~ 17.0%. Later I will try to recompute this one term more exactly, but this result is probably already accurate to within 0.1%. For suited connectors like JTs, this number is 19.1%.