Top pair faces heat from a loose passive.

[surfdoc]

This is mostly a hand that was tough for me to play based on my read. I followed the villian into this game because of retarded plays he made on other tables and datamined stats that show him to be 45/5/.3. I have only played a few hands with him and he seemed very straightforward. One hand MP limped, I raised 99 from button, villian 3 bets from the BB, we call. Flop 832r. Checked to me, I bet, they both fold. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Anyway. On to the hand.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>

What is my plan here?

[Monty Cantsin]

If we assume your read is accurate you aren't ahead often enough and don't have odds to peel. Use your read.

/mc

[Victor]

after the hand is over i often think that if i was good i would fold somewhere. but i never fold.

[aba20]

You are my favorite poster. My favorite Victor quote is "you don't have to win every pot." Your one line commments are deep and profound. Anyways I do the call down thing because I am real bad at laying down TP/GK. That is why I play limit and not no limit.

[Spicymoose]

Calling down is going to cost 2 BB in hopes of winning 7 BB. That means we need to have about 22% equity. If he plays like this with TT+, AT, and 50% of the time with AK, we only have 21% equity. We do save a bet sometimes when he has AK though, as he might check the river. So, if you think he is this likely to have AK, call down. Folding is probably best though.

I don't fold here ever, but maybe I should try to.

[me454555]

After he 3 bets the flop and bets the turn, I his hand range is TT+, AdKd, QdJd, ATo/s. I estimate you have about 4 outs and the pot is not big enough to call.

[surfdoc]

How about 9T, JT, QT, KT? Maybe a funky 99?

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
How about 9T, JT, QT, KT? Maybe a funky 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

He is very passive, so unlikely. I guess maybe a tiny percentage of the time though.

[me454555]

[ QUOTE ]
How about 9T, JT, QT, KT? Maybe a funky 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

This guys is passive pf, 5% pfr so I doubt he's raising hands like T9, JT, QT or KT. On top of that, he's prolly not the type to 3 bet a hand like that after you c/r the flop. 99 is a possibiity but he's just as likely to limp w/it pf given his passivity. On top fo that, is he likely to 3 bet the flop w/a draw if he's passive?

[surfdoc]

There are a few things about this hand that I was trying to process while making decisions. Most of these were kinda subconscious and may be incorrect. I have noticed that while PT stats are helpful there are plays that just really seem to be out of left field and completely uncharacteristic for certain players' stats. I had 350 hands on this guy but many were at lower limits. I also played a few hands at lower limits with him so maybe he thought he could run over me. I also had a feeling about the way his flop 3 bet came down. It was nearly an auto 3 bet on the flop and as a timing tell felt much like a strong means weak tell playing live. In the back of my mind I was also recalling how he could do some really random things and at times just be plain stupid.

I also felt like this type of player will usually slowplay a big hand and won't fastplay this flop to induce action like a more advanced 2p2 type might. Although some may disagree by his stats I felt like his open raising from the button was likely to be wider than his pfr would suggest because he was just plain fed up at the table (I know none of you could have known this).

Anyway, here is what pokerstove says.

Board: 7h 7d Tc 8d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.2273 % 52.57% 07.66% { 99+, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 39.7727 % 32.11% 07.66% { KhTd }


I called the turn and was seriously considering folding the river because I don't see him value betting much here as these types are often content to check the river and take the pot without a big hand. My turn call makes it very unlikely he bluffs the river since there is no way that HE would ever fold a pair on even the scariest board. He therefore may doubt that I will. (I know this is somewhat contadictory but when getting in the mind of a loose passive fish this happens sometimes). In reality I may have looked at the pot on the river and called like victor descibed.

I know that this is way overanalyzing a pretty boring hand but I am really digging into my game right now so please break down my thought process if you can.


Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kh Td (two pair, tens and sevens).
Button has Qc Jc (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.25 BB. </font>

[me454555]

If you've decided that your going to c/f the river UI, those pokerstove #s don't represent your true equity b/c you will be folding when he valuebets hands like KT, QT, and JT which you are ahead of

[StellarWind]

You call him down. This could be a straight draw (including 99) or several other things you beat.

Your read is based on too little information to justify taking a huge position by laying down TP2K against a headsup steal.

Actually the too little information part of that last sentence is not exactly true:

[ QUOTE ]
One hand MP limped, I raised 99 from button, villian 3 bets from the BB, we call. Flop 832r. Checked to me, I bet, they both fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is all you need to know. Posters want to fold against someone who recently did this? What are you guys thinking?

BTW, do you really think it's worth following this player around? I've seen lots of 10/20 players with numbers much worse than this.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]

BTW, do you really think it's worth following this player around? I've seen lots of 10/20 players with numbers much worse than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe. Some people have bad numbers but play okay. Some people have bad numbers but play even worse.