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View Full Version : Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold'em Survey

TomBrooks
11-26-2005, 10:37 PM
LIMIT HOLD'EM ONLY please.

What's you loss percentage with AA? Please specify only if you have exact data and at least 10,000 hands. Feel free to post any related notes or comments. Any distinctions between limits, sites, other factors etc.
TomBrooks
11-26-2005, 11:22 PM
I have 56,700 hands and have been dealt AA 250 times which is 11 times or 4% less than the average of once every 220 hands.

My W/L/T record with it is 182/68/1. That's 73% wins and 27% losses.

My longest losing streak is 3 in a row which has happened several times.

Using 27% as an average loss rate, the chances of losing with AA 3 times in a row are .27 x .27 x .27 = 2% or 1 in 50.

The chances of losing 4 times in a row would be 0.5% or 1 time in 200. I'm slightly overdue for that to happen.

The chances of losing 5 times in a row would be 0.14% or 1 time in 700. I'll expect that to happen approximately once by the time I reach 150,000 hands.

What's the most times in a row you've lost with AA?

Relevant comments welcome.
waffle
11-26-2005, 11:23 PM
80k hands of 6max, 18%. (win% column in PT reads 81.90%)
TomBrooks
11-26-2005, 11:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
80k hands of 6max, 18%. (win% column in PT reads 81.90%)

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, waffle. I didn't think AA could win that much so I didn't expand the poll to go that far. Interesting. Will have to see more results to find out if your 82% is an abberation or not. I suspect it wins more in 6 max than full ring. I have about 22k 6 max and 35k full ring with my 73% win rate.
waffle
11-27-2005, 12:02 AM
here's some other hands if you're interested
KK - 73% win
QQ - 66% win

AKo - 56%
AKs - 58%
Fabian
11-27-2005, 01:37 AM
In my newest database of ~40,000 hands I've had AA 185 times and my win% is 84%.
DeuceHigh80
11-27-2005, 02:04 AM
Over 82,000 hands (~1000 6 Max, the rest full ring) I have 352 AA with a 72.2% win rate. I have one losing streak of 5 in a row and a couple of 4's...
11-27-2005, 03:50 AM
Over 19K hands, had AA 103 times, won 78.64%. Longest losing streak- 2. Hoo-boy. This is all micro-limit, from .25/.50 to 1/2.
KSOT
11-27-2005, 05:46 AM
61k hands, mostly full ring some short handed, dealt AA exactly 300 times, winning with it 80.67% of the time.

Lost with them 4 times in a row once and 3 another time.

Won with them 16 times in a row on two separate occasions. One of them was back to back with a 14 in a row streak, making me 30-1 for a brief stretch.
tansoku
11-27-2005, 01:36 PM
60K hands.
AA 273, 78.4% win, 2.51 BB/hand
KK 286, 71.7% win, 1.95 BB/hand
QQ 318, 65% win, 1.18 BB/hand
JJ 258, 60.5% win, .98 BB/hand
AKs 273, 58.5% win, .89 BB/hand
AKos 572, 55.7% win, .77 BB/hand
Cancuk
11-27-2005, 02:08 PM
My Aces lose 17.66% of the time. But my Aces are better than yours.
TheMainEvent
11-27-2005, 03:59 PM
What kind of poll is this? It seems like almost everyone's answer is below that range. How do you lose 32% with AA? Limp in, check the flop?
paperboyNC
11-27-2005, 04:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
60K hands.
AA 273, 78.4% win, 2.51 BB/hand
KK 286, 71.7% win, 1.95 BB/hand
QQ 318, 65% win, 1.18 BB/hand
JJ 258, 60.5% win, .98 BB/hand
AKs 273, 58.5% win, .89 BB/hand
AKos 572, 55.7% win, .77 BB/hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine:

25K hands.
AA 113, 78.76% win, 2.19 BB/hand
KK 113, 80.53% win, 2.38 BB/hand
QQ 135, 69.63% win, 1.47 BB/hand
JJ 91, 56.04% win, 0.05 BB/hand
AKs 72, 72.22% win, 1.26 BB/hand
AKo 231, 56.71% win, 0.35 BB/hand
wmspringer
11-27-2005, 04:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What kind of poll is this? It seems like almost everyone's answer is below that range. How do you lose 32% with AA? Limp in, check the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I had aces, the pot (which was capped preflop) was won by the guy playing 26o who rivered a 3rd 6

That's Party 1/2 for you, though :-)
The Truth
11-27-2005, 04:42 PM
Over a fairly large same of, fairly high stakes SH limit holdem.

My aces are holding up 81.3% of the time.

blake
augie00
11-27-2005, 06:13 PM
41,916 hands this month
AA 184 times
Win 84.24%
Lose 15.76%

this is at a combination of 3/6 and 5/10 6max and 3/6 and 5/10 full
Trantor
11-27-2005, 06:16 PM
81,570 hands, 24.27% lost
TomBrooks
11-27-2005, 06:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What kind of poll is this? It seems like almost everyone's answer is below that range.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Main,
I took my average win/loss which is 73/27% and that, together with a comment from someone in another thread where he estimated Aces hold up about 30% of the time, made me figure that was about the correct range. I am surprised at the results being reported and the wider than I anticipated variation between players. Unfortunately, the OP is locked for editing so we're stuck with that poll for now. Perhaps it can be redone someday with a more suitable range.
TheMainEvent
11-27-2005, 06:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What kind of poll is this? It seems like almost everyone's answer is below that range.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Main,
I took my average win/loss which is 73/27% and that, together with a comment from someone in another thread where he estimated Aces hold up about 30% of the time, made me figure that was about the correct range. I am surprised at the results being reported and the wider than I anticipated variation between players. Unfortunately, the OP is locked for editing so we're stuck with that poll for now. Perhaps it can be redone someday with a more suitable range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the bright side, now you have free reign to complain about running bad
aces_dad
11-27-2005, 06:45 PM
My most profitable hands over last 10k at 1/2 6max:

Hand Times Win% BB/Hand
KK 37 75.68% 3.23
TT 39 56.41 1.72
QQ 62 77.42 1.65
AQs 26 65.38 1.55
AA 49 63.27 1.52
AKo 95 62.11 1.40

I'm not limping these hands, PFR for AA, KK nearly 100.
timprov
11-27-2005, 08:28 PM
I'm outside the poll too; 313 AA in 66k hands of various games, 85.3% won.

ETA: 2.75 BB/hand, and my longest losing streak is three, which only happened once.
11-27-2005, 08:31 PM
15k hands .5/1 & 1/2
only 59 hands with AA, but 84.75% win
3rdEye
11-27-2005, 08:41 PM
~31% over 156 hands, according to PT.
Guthrie
11-27-2005, 09:37 PM
39,797 hands of 1/2 full ring, AA 174 times, win% 78.74, so I guess my losing % is 21.26.
11-27-2005, 09:38 PM
this is the least content I've seen in awhile
11-28-2005, 12:11 AM
50k hands. Win rate 71 percent. But when went to showdown, win rate is 52 percent.
MisterKing
11-28-2005, 12:43 AM
156,000 hands, I've won with AA 77.95% of the time. I've been dealt AA 771 times... seems about right for that sample size. This is my entire ring game DB, so there are a few (<10K) NLHE games mixed in there.
WordWhiz
11-28-2005, 01:06 AM
88000 hands, 383 AA. 81.46% winning. About half of this is at 6 max tho. At games with exactly 10 players, AA wins only 73.33% of the time.
IndieMatty
11-28-2005, 01:08 AM
79% won 100kish hands.
jhodges
11-28-2005, 01:40 AM
Isn't that a string vote?