River value bet against lag

[Lmn55d]

Villain is 49/19/1.9 with 40 WTSD after 3k hands. Thats all I know.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: (5 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets

[bdk3clash]

Value bluff--I like it! Opponent has 6x or 7x a lot of the time here, probably doesn't raise when you're beat, and once in a blue moon he'll fold a better hand.

[Lmn55d]

i dont think he ever folds a better hand

[Danenania]

Looks fine. I guess he either has a weak Ace, a 6 or 7, or maybe a draw. I see this with pairs more often than draws though. Plus I don't think this is a spot you'll see a missed draw bluff very frequently. Betting is good.

[SippinSoma]

Why is value betting here better than inducing a bluff? Do you think he won't bet with air often enough here? Or do you really think he calls with that many hands worse than yours?

[TStoneMBD]

im not a fan of betting. if hes weak enough that hell check an ace on the turn i think there is a decent change he checks it again on the river after the J and K falls. i dont think hes calling with a 6 or 7 even with his 40WTSD stats, that would be crazy on that board.

[Lmn55d]

i think you might overestimate how often he checks behind with an ace on the turn and underestimate how often he calls with a 6 or 7 on this board. In my experience, if he's checking a pair on the turn, it's because he's going to showdown regardless of what comes and he wants to get there as cheaply as possible. Or he has a monster.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, however.

[TStoneMBD]

he has a wtsd of 40 which means that his poker strategy is to get to showdown whenever possible. with these types of players ive noticed that they raise the flop with a weak ace here and check the turn because they want to get to showdown at the cheapest cost. they dont play like tags where they bet the turn and fold to a checkraise.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience, if he's checking a pair on the turn, it's because he's going to showdown regardless of what comes and he wants to get there as cheaply as possible. Or he has a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is my thinking as well. He looks like he wants to get to showdown (surely he'd have bet an Ace on the turn) and the likely candidates he wants to showdown are (to me) 7x and 6x.

Like you said players that do this tend to call down even when they really can't beat anything you'd logically hold. I should know, I've done it.

[cartman]

In my experience a guy with those stats only checks behind on the turn with an Ace if he misclicks or if he is trying to get tricky and raise the river. I think he pays off with a pair of 6's or 7's plenty on the river and I don't think he bluffs very often with a busted draw. I think it is a clear bet and fold to a raise. Of course and as always I may be dead wrong.

Cartman