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View Full Version : Please help me analyze EV statistics


RiverJohn
11-26-2005, 03:05 PM
I obtained some data from the Prima network displaying EV of various starting hands with between three and five players.

I believe I play an overly tight game for shorthanded, especially from the button and SB. I am looking for a small amount of starting hands I can add to my repertoire in these positions.

I play four $3/6 5-player tables at once on the Prima sites (easiest for bonuses). I have been doing well since I started Prima a little over a month ago, and admittidly haven't set up PT for these sites (...should I even admit that here? Guess that's my cue to get PT up and running for Prima!) Obviously, I don't get great reads on most players, but I can tell the obviously aggressive/passive/horrible/good ones fairly quickly.

Anyway, my question is, how do I use these EV stats to select some additional hands to play (particularly for the button and SB)?

I am assuming I'm better than the average player (or else I wouldn't be playing these games in the first place), so any hand they can make a profit on, I can probably do at least as well with.

Starting with the small blind, assuming the EV's given would be MY actual EV, what EV will I require to add a hand to my repertoire?

For the following discussion, all EV stats are given in units of ONE BIG BET. The numbers do not, of course, include the number of players currently in the pot, so I would need to use my judgement to modify them accordingly as per specific situations. Also, sample size is not sufficiently big, as there are some anamolies in the stats.

I would assume -0.25 (equal to the SB) is the break even point and any hand with a higher EV merits consideration. What baffles me here is that nearly every hand beats or ties this target EV. The few exceptions (96o, 84o, etc, about 15 or less) aren't much worse than -0.25. The worst hands are [93s, 43o, 32o] at -0.28. Many are dead even at -0.25, which could result from a fold every time (but highly unlikely with this bunch of clowns!). T5s and 97o are example hands that I nearly always fold from the SB, yet the former shows a significant EV gain (-0.18) and the latter isn't too much worse (-0.20).

Am I folding trash hands like this too often from the SB?

The button shows a few starting hands I should be playing as well. Should I be calling(/raising) with all hands showing positive EV for the "average" player?

As a side note, I wasn't surprised to see offsuit aces with a kicker of seven or lower is a loser for the average player on the button.

I know these numbers don't say a WHOLE lot, but I would like to learn to open up my game a little from the SB especially.