basic pot odds question

[RBDB44]

when calculating pot odds after the flop, is it correct to base your decision on the probability of improving on the next card or next two cards.

[asdf1234]

For the flop, you're not really applying pot odds, but more effective odds. Ex. $5-10 game with $10 in the pot before the flop, and for simplicity we'll say that you're heads up. Your opponent bets out. You have a 4 flush and are positive that you will win if you hit. Your odds of making the flush by the river are 1.86:1 against. If you just consider this, you are getting 3:1 on your money and it's an easy call, but this is not correct. You need to consider the case when you don't hit on the turn, in which case, you will need to call another $10. So, you're actually getting 5 to 3(25 to 15) odds or about 1.6666:1, which is worse than the flush odds. In this particular case, you wouldn't call.

Of course, if your opponent is sure to call on the end, there are implied odds as well and it's okay to call with it.

Theory of Poker has a thorough discussion of it and I believe their example is almost identical.

In low limit games, you almost always have odds to call with a flush draw (and an open ended straight draw), and in many cases if your draw is strong enough (i.e. nut flush or nut straight), you can raise for value. Probably 2-3 other players are enough to justify calling with draws, but be aware that if you have to call 2 bets cold, your odds are almost cut in half, and you need to be sure that other players are coming before calling unless the pot is large(also in this case, it would be wise to consider that you may hit your hand and still lose, meaning that you would need slightly better odds).

Hope this helps and I didn't screw anything up. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[pudley4]

If you're deciding whether to call a bet or fold, you should look at only the next card. Example: You have a gutshot draw, and there is a bet to you. You are approx 11-1 to hit on the next card, so you need odds close to 11-1 to call (not including implied odds, which we won't get into right now).

[mchilger]

This is an excellent question. I'll try answering it in two different ways. As the first poster explains, to look at two cards, you need to determine the implied pots including a flop bet and turn bet. So in a $5-$10 game, you will be paying at least $15 to see the river, then compare that to the current pot plus expected bets you think your opponent will put in the pot.

In practice, you generally are almost always getting proper odds to call to the river with flush draws if there is no pair on the board and straight draws if the flop is a rainbow and there is no pair. There are a couple of exceptions but not worth mentioning here.

For your weaker draws with 6 outs or less, generally you should just be looking at the odds for drawing one more card. You generally will be folding these weaker draws on the turn with the exception of a very large pot.

Hope that helps...Matthew