Quiz: turn play after ramming/jamming a draw

[private joker]

Hypothetical situation. You're in a loose 8-handed small stakes holdem game. Reads for this hand:

EP is slightly loose but donkish post-flop.
MP is a solid, TAG-ish player.
Button is extremely tight-passive.
The blinds are loose-passive fish.

EP open-limps. You limp next in with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP raises. Button cold-calls. Blinds both cold-call. EP and you call. 6 to the flop for 12 sb.

Flop comes T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

EP bets, you call, MP raises, Button cold-calls, SB folds, BB cold-calls, EP calls, you 3-bet, the table all moans, MP calls, button calls, BB calls, EP calls. 5 to the turn for 13BBs.

Now, let's assume BB and EP will always check to you on the turn regardless: obviously you're betting any spade or 9 on the turn. But my question is what other cards are you betting, if any, and what turn cards are you checking, if any. Answer the following scenarios:

A) Ace (double-gutted)
B) King (open-ended)
C) Queen (top pair)
D) J
E) T
F) 7
G) 6
H) 2

I can think of good reasons to bet or check a lot of these. If an A or K comes and you have 8 straight outs to go along with your flush draw, you want to bet for value -- but you might walk into a raise if MP has AA/KK, and you'd lose your equity when Button, BB, and EP fold, then have to pay 2BBs heads up to hit your river. If a 2 hits, you still might get raised by AA/KK if he wants to protect his hand. Then again, checking gives away your hand -- if that matters. I'm leaning towards betting most turns, but it's a tough call.

[Before anyone asks, yes this hand happened to me but I spiked a spade on the turn so it didn't matter -- but for the 5 seconds before the dealer turned the 4th street card, I was quickly trying to decide what to do if I bricked, hence this quiz]

[toss]

I'd bet A,B,C, and D. Our equity with a straight flush draw on the turn is likeover 25% plus we may even win by spiking a pair on the river. We also want to shodown in this huge pot if we hit top pair on the turn. Given how everybody played the flop it doesn't look like they'll be folding the turn. So I don't see much reason to bet if the board pairs or a blank comes off.

[private joker]

Why do you like betting a J? Sure you have top pair, but it's very likely a 9 was out there on the flop calling along with an OESD, and it just hit. Button could raise, BB/EP could checkraise (I think EP's hand looks a lot like an OESD), etc.

Are you saying because of equity, you don't mind getting raised by a made straight?

[Piiop]

I think a flop raise of the first bet would've been good here, but I know that's not what you're asking. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I think betting most turns is pretty good because of equity. It will be tough for the players after you to raise anything but a set so I think you'll usually still have lots of people in. I dont think giving away your hand by checking matters.

[cold_cash]

I don't think MP is raising this flop with overcards, unless he has exactly the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Having said that, I wouldn't bet any card that is likely to have hit his hand, allowing him to raise and face everybody else with two bets.

If an Ace or King came off I would check, expecting him to bet, then seeing what the players between him do. If enough of them are along for the ride you might be able to checkraise for value again, even if just made a set. (I'm not sure though, it's late and I didn't do any math.)

I would actually probably play most turn cards this way, since I think his flop raise says overpair and I wouldn't expect him to check and risk a free card coming off.

If he bets and it's folded to you, you call and catch.

If he bets and everyone calls inbetween, you trap them again. (Especially if the turn card gives you additional outs.)

I think the toughest decision would be if a Queen came off.

[toss]

Theres a small chance no one has a 9 and we have some decent fold equity if we bet. It would be great if someone folded AA or KK to a turn bet. Another thing is that some people won't even checkraise fearing the nut straight after the way you played the flop. It also not a disaster if you get checkraised since you do have many outs.

I'm checking, regardless.

I can't see me betting any turn card. We're not winning this pot without a showdown and we're never getting all better hands to fold.

If MP (TAG) has any hand worth protecting on the turn, he's raising a donk and he's rarely ever going to let the turn check through after raising the flop.

Your not clearing up any outs. A raise behind you will only drive out hands you want to stay in.

If an A or K falls, I check, intending to checkraise just to hear the table moan again. Plus the muppets in the blinds will always call 3 {if MP raises again} after putting in 1, more readily than they will call 2 cold.

The worst that can happen by checking, is that the turn gets checked through (very unlikely).

The most worrying thing for me in regards to value is the extremely tight Button who has called 2 cold preflop AND on the flop. Whatever he has, its reducing our equity.

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm checking, regardless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just reread the chapter in HPFAP about turn play where DS recommends checking 60% of turns (against thinking players), so I'm really sensitive to opportunities to do this. Do you think what he says there applies here? I can't remember if it specifies the number of opponents.

Seems that checking any turn card might be okay here, calling a bet if A, B, C, or D hits, raising a spade or nine. It doesn't seem like it will get checked through, so your equity is in good shape with money going into the middle from up to 5 players.

[cold_cash]

I think when the action is on you the first time, (when it gets checked to you on the turn), that checking is the best play.

What to do after that depends on what everyone else does.

[private joker]

I hadn't thought about checking a spade. Maybe that's a good idea if I can get MP to bet again. Not sure he'd go for it, and tight-passive button will only bet a made hand, but it could be worth a shot. Problem is, if MP and button decide to check as well, I give them a free shot at another spade if one of them is holding the lone A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[bernie]

Since no one capped the flop and you ended the aggression, that gives you some, albeit very little, fold equity on the turn. Basically you're not looking to fold everyone, that's unlikely, just hands that could be better than yours.

But basically you're looking at any turn card that you think is giving you better than what your odds are to hit a winning hand a value bet even though you are drawing. You have 4 opponents, so your odds against shouldn't be more than 4-1 to jam the turn a bit. You can do this with as little as 10 outs here. But remember that the other opponents just calling along and what they might have as far as outs that are gone/tainted. Like the extremely tight-passive button that just withstood all that flop action.

[ QUOTE ]
Then again, checking gives away your hand -- if that matters. I'm leaning towards betting most turns, but it's a tough call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not necesarily. Say you hit a card that gives you 4 more outs. Leaving you with the open ended str8flush draw. You could check that into the MP behind you, have him bet(since he may think you were drawing), then see how many are calling. If enough call, checkraise it. Again note that if many call here, some of your outs are gone.

MP likley has an overpair. He puts the brakes on when you 'came alive' and 3 bet the flop probably thinking you had a set. So yes, a check would look like a draw, but the c/r on the turn could really give his head a spin. I've seen guys make big laydowns here with the best hands. Especially since he'd be the first one calling the c/r. A solid TAG could do this laydown. This could, if he folds, free up an overcard for outs. Most likely the Q.

Betting out is fine too. But you can't really like it if he raises you and faces everyone else with 2 cold here on the turn. Since you'd likely have to hit to win, you'd like to have those opponents staying in for your draw as they'd be drawing slim to win the hand anyways against either you or him(if he does have an overpair).

Just wanted to present another scenario.

Aren't big draws fun! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm checking, regardless.

I can't see me betting any turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? There can be lots of value on the right turn card(s) hitting.

b

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm checking, regardless.

I can't see me betting any turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? There can be lots of value on the right turn card(s) hitting.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If an A or K falls, I check, intending to checkraise

[/ QUOTE ]

[callmedonnie]

I think I bet A,B, and C definitely. I kind of want to bet H also as it doesn't coordinate with this board and help out any of the other players very often. All of the other cards scare me a little. I'm obviously seeing a river, but with those cards I'd like to do it cheaply.

The Ace is a likely card to get raised by someone also, but I kind of feel like with all those outs your equity can still handle a raise. I'm bad at math though, so I can't back this up completely at the moment.

Not betting a spade here seems like a horrible idea, fwiw.