QT is loser after 13000 hands [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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therockofgibraltar

11-26-2005, 05:06 AM

so how bad do I play them??

loose and passive table.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds.

River: (9 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9 BB

imported_leader

11-26-2005, 05:09 AM

I'm betting the river too. 13K hands isn't enough to have any grasp on individual hand win rates. I think we're talking hundreds of thousand of hands before you'd be able to get a firm number on individual hands. Especially ones that are close EV wise

Weatherhead03

11-26-2005, 05:10 AM

Fine. Im sure after 13000 hands you do not have enough individual QT hands to evaluate yet.

bottomset

11-26-2005, 05:13 AM

you only get about 3QTs per 1000 hands so a sample in the 30-50 range is going to be all over the place

MasterShakes

11-26-2005, 05:14 AM

Preflop looks fine to me.

The raise on the flop also looks fine to me, unless your stats/read indicates that this player will only bet with top pair. BB cold call will almost always make me lean toward a flush draw, even without a read on the player.

I think the turn bet is mandatory at this point. If you thought you were ahead on the flop, you should still believe this unless shown otherwise.

I would value bet the river. It's not a scary card - no pair on the board, no flush possible, no straight possible. If your hand was good on the flop and turn, it's likely still good here.

As an aside, 13,000 hands is not a very big sample at all to determine how an individual hand is doing. That is, unless you're trying to say that you've played QT 13,000 times, which I doubt. I'm not sure how many total hands you would want to have before making judgments about individual hands, but it's probably in excess of 500,000.

MrWookie47

11-26-2005, 05:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the river too. 13K hands isn't enough to have any grasp on individual hand win rates. I think we're talking hundreds of thousand of hands before you'd be able to get a firm number on individual hands. Especially ones that are close EV wise

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed on all counts. If UTG was still in the hand, I'd like the river check. However, with just BB, this is a solid value bet.

MasterShakes

11-26-2005, 05:17 AM

Do you all think he can fold the river if he is check-raised?

imported_leader

11-26-2005, 05:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG was still in the hand, I'd like the river check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

imported_leader

11-26-2005, 05:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you all think he can fold the river if he is check-raised?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that happens very rarely. Without a read, I really wouldn't know what to do. I'd probably make a "WTF call."

Subfallen

11-26-2005, 05:56 AM

13k is meaningless for individual hands. I am a significant loser with AQs over my last 30k hands.

Rudbaeck

11-26-2005, 05:58 AM

Missed a value bet, and 13k hands is a fart in space. (Heck, for the purpose of evaluating a certain hand it's a very, very small fart in space.)

/The Sample Size Police

soah

11-26-2005, 07:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the river too. 13K hands isn't enough to have any grasp on individual hand win rates. I think we're talking hundreds of thousand of hands before you'd be able to get a firm number on individual hands. Especially ones that are close EV wise

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed on all counts. If UTG was still in the hand, I'd like the river check. However, with just BB, this is a solid value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

1/2 players are very passive. BB could easily be calling down with an ace. If he's on a flush draw he's folding here anyway, so where is the value? Barring a read that BB is a total calling station, I don't think you win half of the time *when called* on the river here.

therockofgibraltar

11-26-2005, 07:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the river too. 13K hands isn't enough to have any grasp on individual hand win rates. I think we're talking hundreds of thousand of hands before you'd be able to get a firm number on individual hands. Especially ones that are close EV wise

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed on all counts. If UTG was still in the hand, I'd like the river check. However, with just BB, this is a solid value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

1/2 players are very passive. BB could easily be calling down with an ace. If he's on a flush draw he's folding here anyway, so where is the value? Barring a read that BB is a total calling station, I don't think you win half of the time *when called* on the river here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much what I was thinking. If he was on FD or SD or something, he will not call. But if he has A he will surely call. At the moment I didn't saw any value in betting.

therockofgibraltar

11-26-2005, 07:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1/2 players are very passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, I guess this is one of the reasons that get me in trouble! Should play very carefully marginal hands if there is resistance. Have read too much high limits posts where they will raise with nothing. Here, it usually mean business.

imported_leader

11-26-2005, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1/2 players are very passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, I guess this is one of the reasons that get me in trouble! Should play very carefully marginal hands if there is resistance. Have read too much high limits posts where they will raise with nothing. Here, it usually mean business.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're also very loose.

SippinSoma

11-26-2005, 03:42 PM

This is how I play it.

Aaron W.

11-26-2005, 04:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
loose and passive table.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me get this straight. You raise preflop at a passive table against a bunch of loose players. Someone bets into you on a pretty powerful looking AQx flop. Can you tell me anything specific about UTG to make me believe this isn't a huge mistake?

SlantNGo

11-26-2005, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Let me get this straight. You raise preflop at a passive table against a bunch of loose players. Someone bets into you on a pretty powerful looking AQx flop. Can you tell me anything specific about UTG to make me believe this isn't a huge mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you Aaron. I was very surprised to see people advocating this flop raise. Why are we raising here? Just call and play it like a draw. How often do you think we are either ahead here, or knocking out a lower Ace?

brazilio

11-26-2005, 05:47 PM

Call flop and check/fold turn, I have no idea why Aaron was the only one to say this.

MrWookie47

11-26-2005, 07:27 PM

He could be calling us down with Ax. He might also be calling us down with Qx, 9x, PP, or who knows what. Missing this bet is not a 1 BB mistake, but it's -EV against typical players at this, and many, levels.

I agree that the flop raise is somewhat questionable. Was there a read?

POKhER

11-26-2005, 07:34 PM

This stinks because weaker aces wont fold, Stronger aces from passive guys wont play back but simply call down.

If you have a read to suggest otherwise then fine but atleast tell us.

Assuming you didn't you're still drawing and when your pot odds dont meet your odds to improve... Time to fold that junk!

The preflop raise seems ok, I'd limp if i wasnt in CO/BTN(Sometimes CO if its tight table potentially).

soah

11-26-2005, 07:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He could be calling us down with Ax. He might also be calling us down with Qx, 9x, PP, or who knows what. Missing this bet is not a 1 BB mistake, but it's -EV against typical players at this, and many, levels.

I agree that the flop raise is somewhat questionable. Was there a read?

[/ QUOTE ]

The players that call down with any pair tend to stand out quite a bit. Since there was no read given on this guy, I'm assuming he wasn't one of them.

Danenania

11-26-2005, 09:26 PM

Wow guys, a river bet is no good here. Checking is much better. Rest of the hand looks fine to me.