15/30 - questionable on a few streets, 75s

[Surfbullet]

SB is 30/13/.8 over 135.
CO is 97/50/3 over 46, a complete maniac. I'm so happy to have him on my right.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP posts a blind of $15.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP calls.

River: (12.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls...

Surf

cap preflop, 3bet the turn.

river is an easy raise and cap. here's why:

http://www.pokerchoice.com/online_poker/poker_hands.gif

flop is fine, sometimes i just call for deceptive value though. your hand is so strong you don't need to protect it now.

in vegas I might stop on the river after 7bets... here i go to the felt. esp if the opponent is tpter dominic.

gl

[dave44]

Preflop call is too loose for me- I guess you figure your position on the maniac makes more hands profitable?

I like the flop 3-bet as you might be able to get SB off a better 7 and MP could have a variety of bs hands. Plus, you have solid equity on this flop in general so you don't hate bets going in.

River call is fine, gotta think this guy's full of it enough to make the call even with SB yet to act. I'd fold to a raise from SB though.

[The Truth]

I can't tell if I love this aggro hush gimmick account or hate it.

I'll post a trip report later.

blake

[Spicymoose]

To the guy who said fold preflop, I really don't think so. I might even raise here. I would love to be in a hand with only the maniac, and since he checked after posting in the CO, and he is a maniac, he must have a god awful hand. SB is loose, but he won't be playing too often anyway. How loose is BB?

Flop is standard.

Turn is standard.

On the river I like a raise. You have no guarantee that SB will overcall, but can be pretty sure that your maniac won't be able to fold for one more bet on the river, regardless of what he holds. Furthermore, occasionally you may be able to squeeze 2 BB out of SB when he has some decently strong holding that he just can't lay down.

Raising to isolate a maniac with a hand that has no showdown value would be bad news. The hand looks good, though 75s is really pushing it.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising to isolate a maniac with a hand that has no showdown value would be bad news.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree normally, but this isn't just to isolate, this is a blind steal.

He's played 97% of his hands. I doubt we buy any folding equity on the flop either. Raising here is like kicking a wasps' nest /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
He's played 97% of his hands. I doubt we buy any folding equity on the flop either. Raising here is like kicking a wasps' nest /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

1. He raises 50% of his hands
2. It is folded to him in the CO
3. He has already posted

Given all this, I would imagine that his hand must be extremely weak. On top of possibly stealing blinds, even if we do end up against him on the flop, I think we have an equity edge, even with 75s. Against the bottom 33% of hands, 75s has 55% equity.

So on top of being able to steal blinds sometimes (and more blind money than usual), we often end up heads up against a horrible player where we have an equity edge, and can even take a free turn often if we want (not saying we should, but we can).

You won't be able to realize a lot of that equity. If you miss the flop you're going to have a hell of a time winning the pot. It's what maniacs are good at.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
You won't be able to realize a lot of that equity. If you miss the flop you're going to have a hell of a time winning the pot. It's what maniacs are good at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets assume we have 50% equity, which I think is an underestimate. A hand like 75s will connect with about 60% of flops, and if we choose to take our free card, we will sometimes even be able to continue on the turn. So, We are reaching showdown about 2/3 of the time, and so don't realize 1/3 of our equity. This means that we are taking a 1/3 of a SB loss by raising preflop. If we are successful at stealing all the blind money 12% of the time, we make this up immediately.

On top of this, I think we will have a higher postflop edge by raising preflop rather than limping. Granted, it won't be much, since he is a maniac, but it is another slight benefit.