How long can you run good?

[77rules]

Hi all,

Been searching for the FAQ, can't find it. If you know where it is, please direct me to it. If there's no FAQ, I have a few questions:

What is the highest, sustainable BB/100 one is likely to have at 2/4?
How long does a "good run" of cards figure to run (in hands)? 5K? 10K? 20K? More?
Dito for bad.

Also, how long was your longest run of good/bad cards?

Background: Just looked at some stats for my 2/4 play. I've got about 40K hands registered. Overall, I'm about 2BB/100. In the last 20K, I'm about 3.8BB/100. I'm wondering if this is a fluke, or if it's time to move up.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
Background: Just looked at some stats for my 2/4 play. I've got about 40K hands registered. Overall, I'm about 2BB/100. In the last 20K, I'm about 3.8BB/100. I'm wondering if this is a fluke, or if it's time to move up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever. It is likely a fluke in the sense that you are probably not a 3.8BB player. It is likely not a fluke in the sense that such things happen to winning players far more often than to losing players. You seem to be a winning player. Sure, why not move up? (Subject to bankroll, willingness to move back down, etc.)

[olavfo]

The long run is long. I've done some simple simulations in Excel and they indicate that even after 50k hands a true break even player can have +1 BB/100 by chance alone.

Conversely, a true 2 BB/100 player can have 1 BB/100 after 50k hands because he is running bad. I wouldn't be surprised to see luck effects of similar magnitude even after 100k hands or more.

However, if you're 2 BB/100 over 40k hands at 2/4, you should consider moving up. It's a decent sample size even if it's not big enough to determine your true win rate accurately.

[mtdoak]

You can a 'good run' can alter your stats over long periods of time, as can a bad run. I know alot of winning players at 5/10 and 10/20 who were 2+ BB/100 winners over 60k hands, and were 1 BB/100 players after a nasty 200 BB downswing. Alot of players don't think your 'long term' stats aren't really accurate after 100k hands or so, and even then, variance is still a factor. The more you play, the more accurate your stats are going to be. Over 40k hands, you look to be doing pretty good at 2/4. From the sounds of it, you feel like you are running well. If you have the bankroll, feel free to move up to 3/6 full. Its not that big of a jump, just use table selection a little more carefully.

[ncboiler]

As long as they don't read my obit on the news in the morning I am running good. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[PokerBob]

I can run good never, as I Don'tEverRunGood.

[lighterjobs]

even if you ran just 2BB/100 over 40k hands without the 3.8bb upswing, you should consider taking a shot at at least 3/6. your stats are definately good enough for taking shots.

[w_alloy]

[ QUOTE ]

Been searching for the FAQ, can't find it. If you know where it is, please direct me to it. If there's no FAQ, I have a few questions: How long does a "good run" of cards figure to run (in hands)? 5K? 10K? 20K? More?
Dito for bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly like asking how many times in a row you can flip a coin and it comes out heads. It amazes me how many people dont grasp probability.