Bad cards played badly?

[ajmargarine]

Reads: MP2 and CO have gone to the mat with TPTK/TPGK/TPBK hands over and over again. I've been trying to get in as many hands with them as possible. That's why the preflop call. Feel free to show me the error of my thought process on that given my hand strength.

Examples: MP2 is on another table me. There, I PFR'd AA, he called with JT, and got stacked when the flop came T high. Back on this table, I limped PF with A6, flop came J66, and CO couldn't let go of JT, and lost most his stack. He got it back when I called his AK PFR when I held 87s. Flop came A87, he overbet flop, I raised, he pushed, and he spiked a river A to beat me. So, that's why I've been trying to get in hands with these guys. Stacks are:

Hero ($120)
CO ($150)
MP2 ($55)

.50/$1 NLHE 8-handed

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP2 minraises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($8.25) J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue"> (4 players) </font>
BB checks, MP2 bets $3, CO folds, Hero raises to $9, BB folds, MP2 pushes all-in for $50, Hero calls $41.

If my read is right, he's got Jx. I'm slightly ahead of all his one pair hands except QJ of which I'm slightly behind. My edge here is only 52-48 over most hands I think he has, unless he has a heart in which case he is a slight favorite. If he's pushing a draw like AhTh, my advantage is minute. If he picked up a set like 88, I'm way behind. I thought this was a solid call at the table. Afterwards, I'm thinking it's a fold. Always better to be pushing all-in, than to be the one calling all-ins. Thoughts on the flop raise are also welcome.

Results are immaterial, but if you are interested in villian's hand, here it is in white: <font color="white"> Villian held JTo, so you can see what he's willing to go to the felt with. </font>

[scdavis0]

If you had bombed the flop like you should have the all-in call is way easier.

Calling the all-in is player dependent when it comes to calculating outs.

[emil3000]

Preflop: Fine, whatever.

On the flop I would think it is more +EV to take a cheap card, make your hand and break hime when he's drawing dead. I mean you likely have the best equity, so raising with the intent to get all in can't be that wrong. Still, calling is probably better.

Yeah raise it more on the flop.

Is villain willing to go to the felt once the /images/graemlins/heart.gif comes? If not, while it's +EV to induce a push now, its more +EV to call and get it in once you make your hand. You win the same when your flush or set comes, but you lose very little when it doesn't.

If he isn't that much of a payoff machine (which is unlikely given your description) then you played it fine.

I dont mind the size of the flop raise...but I think a fold is in order after he pushes...FWIW id probably call tho becuz im a donkey.

[emil3000]

You gotta see that with this player a push is coming very frequently. If you aren't willing to call the push then you probably shouldn't make the raise in the first place.

Board: Jh 8h 6c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.1229 % 50.09% 00.03% { Qh6h }
Hand 2: 49.8771 % 49.85% 00.03% { AJs, KJs, QJs, J2s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J2o+ }

Removing the weakest jacks bumps your equity just below 50%. With dead money in the pot, calling is easily +EV. This is assuming his read is dead on.

If you add the heart draw to his range the equity doesn't change very much, because you are usually already ahead with your sixes.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: 50.1229 %
Hand 2: 49.8771 %

[/ QUOTE ]

So, basically, in the pokermaster big picture.... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I'm putting up $55 and MP2 is putting up $55, and we are flipping a coin where I have an 0.2458% edge for the $4.50 worth of dead money in the pot.

I'll flip all day when I have the top end of the traditional AK vs. QQ coinflip which is closer to 57-43. This one I'm not so comfortable with.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Is villain willing to go to the felt once the /images/graemlins/heart.gif comes? If not, while it's +EV to induce a push now, its more +EV to call and get it in once you make your hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I raised because I thought there was a very good chance he had air here. Plus getting more $$$ in the middle seemed like a good idea if had connected on the flop. $3 with an $8.25 pot and a draw heavy board seemed very out of character for this villian. Even though he was getting his stack in with TP earlier, I was still surprised when he pushed because of his small lead bet. I almost called, I almost raised to $15. I sort of forget why I chose $9 last nite. Seemed like a nice number. /images/graemlins/smile.gif