NBA moneyline questions (and another)

was wondering if anyone here has good experience with NBA moneylines.... and had seen any studies or anything.

tonight, chicago bulls at san antonio -11, the money line is +560, and teamrankings.com has winning chance at 13.5%. but SAS never seem to lose at home (although chicago is pretty good). i just don't think that moneyline is sufficient.

than atlanta at indiana -11.5.. moneyline = +700. i just see atlanta as having no chance. or they win 3 or 4 out of 41 if they played every road game in indy. so i'm thinking +1000 to +1500

i told a guy who just got into this to play moneyline on favorites and small underdogs, especially small home underdogs. any thoughts?

all responses greatly appreciated!

[legend42]

If you're talking about playing the moneyline favorites, you need to list the minus number of the line.

And consistently playing big moneyline favorites (you know, the "there's no way (team A) loses to (team B)" games) is as sure a way as any to lose a lot of money.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
was wondering if anyone here has good experience with NBA moneylines.... and had seen any studies or anything.

tonight, chicago bulls at san antonio -11, the money line is +560, and teamrankings.com has winning chance at 13.5%. but SAS never seem to lose at home (although chicago is pretty good). i just don't think that moneyline is sufficient.

than atlanta at indiana -11.5.. moneyline = +700. i just see atlanta as having no chance. or they win 3 or 4 out of 41 if they played every road game in indy. so i'm thinking +1000 to +1500

i told a guy who just got into this to play moneyline on favorites and small underdogs, especially small home underdogs. any thoughts?

all responses greatly appreciated!

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The fair money line on the spurs would be -971 and for their opponnent +469.

The Atlanta line at +700 is actually a pretty nice price. Our line converter* shows it should be +567 and for their opponents -1433.

So, it looks like you would be getting a good price on the dog ML, but since I don't like variance that much I would just take the points.

What do you mean "play moneyline on favorites"? Do you mean lay the odds with no spread? Unless the price is right, you can't do that. Sometimes the spread will be better than the ML and vice versa. The books do not move them at the same time. So, if a lot of money gets bet on SA -11, that does not necessarily mean the ML will move and vice versa once again.

As far as betting small underdogs, that is a "decent" subset, but there are times to bet big underdogs on the spread. Betting dogs on the spread is good for one reason, because since they are trying to win, they are inherently trying to cover. Also, with big dogs, the chance of a back door cover is much greater. If you have +11 and the fav is winning by 15 with 1 minute left, you are usually in good shape to at least push. All the fav wants to do is win, not cover. I hope this helps a bit. Minimal sleep might have made my wording a bit confusing.

*My site is just about to launch in about 1.5 weeks and we have a line converter that will answer these types of questions. It is still in beta-testing though, but DougOzzzz has been doing a great job.

craig

thanks guys!

i appreciate the responses!!

i haven't looked into it alot but not sure i agree about betting big moneyline favorites being suicidal. just don't bet your entire bankroll because one loss and you're done. so use good money management.

i would focus on the lousiness of the road team more than the greatness of the home team.

when i said bet on moneyline favorites. i meant the spread is zero but you are betting 600 to win 100.

you could have spread and moneyline on same bet i.e. they'll tease the line.

anyhow, really enjoying the great responses i get on here. and not saying i'm right about the moneylines. i'd like to look into it more.

[craig r]

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thanks guys!

i appreciate the responses!!

i haven't looked into it alot but not sure i agree about betting big moneyline favorites being suicidal. just don't bet your entire bankroll because one loss and you're done. so use good money management.

i would focus on the lousiness of the road team more than the greatness of the home team.

when i said bet on moneyline favorites. i meant the spread is zero but you are betting 600 to win 100.

you could have spread and moneyline on same bet i.e. they'll tease the line.

anyhow, really enjoying the great responses i get on here. and not saying i'm right about the moneylines. i'd like to look into it more.

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I don't think you are understanding what I was saying. We will assume youalways bet 2% of your bankroll.

What i was saying is that sometimes the moneyline has more value than the spread and vice versa. Here is an example that will never happen. DAL +3 -110 and ML +200. Obviously, taking the +200 is the better play there because the ML for a 3 point dog is much less than +200. In fact, for a +3 -110 NFL dog the equivalent ML is +129; they are the exact same lines. If you can find a ML better than +129 than that is better than betting the spread. But, if the ML was +110, then the spread would be better (all of this is assuming you have an edge..so if you like DAL +3 -110 and think that has an edge, but then you see DAL +140 (won't happen), you should bet the ML). The same goes for big favorites or any line. You want to bet the side that has the most value and that can be quantified with no guess work. One last exageratted example, ATL -10 -110 or ML -110, which one would you take?

craig

craig, fair enough!

my thought is that people just like to shy away from moneyline favorites as you can't make as much money. most people are into sports betting for the gambling aspect.

i understood that san antonio is -769 tonight moneyline even though i only posted chicago at +560.... i find the house profit on the moneyline is fixed (i.e. look at how much you'd lose by betting on both team in proper dollar proportions), so i usually only have to look at one side to get a feel for the value. although it is a slightly dangerous assumption.

i do think it's a good point on the value between moneyline vs. point spreads. especially at the higher point spread games.

do you find that the moneyline is always quite similar for the same point spread (5 point favorites for example)? and can the moneyline vary depending on the circumstances of the teams? i.e. a team could play great or terribly, very inconsistent.

regarding moneyline favorites. here is some simple analysis i did.

best five home teams last year (and i realize you don't know this until after the season

SAS 38-3
miami 35-6
detroit 32-9
denver 31-10 (high altitude, less oxygen)
sacramento 30-11

so most of those latter teams should be -300 against the average team.

worst road

atlanta 4-37
charlotte 4-37
milwaukee 7-34
NOH 7-34
utah 8-33

so those worst road teams should be +900 vs. average team. and others are +400 to +500

but as i said, you don't know who will be the best and worst home/road guys till the end.

craig, i appreciate your comments. sometimes i just don't put enough words (or work) into my posts. but i do know alot about how moneylines work. haven't played them that much though.

FWIW, i think NCAA football is awesome for moneyline. a 10 point spread is nothing in NCAA but in NFL it's huge.

so those worst teams should be

[legend42]

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In fact, for a +3 -110 NFL dog the equivalent ML is +129; they are the exact same lines.

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While this is a good guideline for assessing value, I think it's wrong to say they are the exact same line. They might be historically equivalent, but each game has its own dynamics which might affect one line (ML & spread) more than the other.

For instance, the points are more valuable in a game with two low-scoring teams than two high-scoring teams. Also, certain teams have marked up-or-down tedencies, while others are relatively consistent in their week-to-week performance. If both teams were, say 8 point underdogs, it doesn't mean the money line should necessarily have the same odds as each other.

[craig r]

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craig, fair enough!

my thought is that people just like to shy away from moneyline favorites as you can't make as much money. most people are into sports betting for the gambling aspect.

i understood that san antonio is -769 tonight moneyline even though i only posted chicago at +560.... i find the house profit on the moneyline is fixed (i.e. look at how much you'd lose by betting on both team in proper dollar proportions), so i usually only have to look at one side to get a feel for the value. although it is a slightly dangerous assumption.

i do think it's a good point on the value between moneyline vs. point spreads. especially at the higher point spread games.

do you find that the moneyline is always quite similar for the same point spread (5 point favorites for example)? and can the moneyline vary depending on the circumstances of the teams? i.e. a team could play great or terribly, very inconsistent.

regarding moneyline favorites. here is some simple analysis i did.

best five home teams last year (and i realize you don't know this until after the season

SAS 38-3
miami 35-6
detroit 32-9
denver 31-10 (high altitude, less oxygen)
sacramento 30-11

so most of those latter teams should be -300 against the average team.

worst road

atlanta 4-37
charlotte 4-37
milwaukee 7-34
NOH 7-34
utah 8-33

so those worst road teams should be +900 vs. average team. and others are +400 to +500

but as i said, you don't know who will be the best and worst home/road guys till the end.

craig, i appreciate your comments. sometimes i just don't put enough words (or work) into my posts. but i do know alot about how moneylines work. haven't played them that much though.

FWIW, i think NCAA football is awesome for moneyline. a 10 point spread is nothing in NCAA but in NFL it's huge.

so those worst teams should be

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The ML and Spread should be equivalent. But, they aren't always. I mentioned earlier that they don't move together. So, lets say that we had our DAL +3 -110 and ML +150. If I bet the max all over the place on DAL ML, the +3-110 won't move (or will barely move). Same goes for if I bet the +3, the ML won't move (or will barely move). They are two independent events, so why should the books move them. So, what happens is during the week, DAL +3-110 gets bet a lot and then it moves to 3 -130 by sunday, but the ML won't move very much at all (of course, this isn't the case, because people will be betting the money line. Generally it is proportional, but not always.). So, you will then have your DB or Line Converter (I am not trying to spam our site, but this line converteris really cool and does all the work for you..we will advertise shortly) and see where the value lies. Because by the end of the week DAL +3 -130, might be way worse than DAL +170 (all examples). Your job as the line shopper is to find the value, not necessarily pick winners. As long as you are finding value, the winners will come. But, the converse is not true. You can pick 80% in the NFL on the ML, but you will still lose money. It just takes one upset and your profits and initial investment are gone.

As far as your analysis, I think it is good that you are doing somthing like that, but it is flawed. We can use baseball as an example. The best teams usually win 60% of their games. Does that mean that everyday the best team plays, they will have a 60% shot of winning? No. Because some days they will be playing KC and have a 65% shot and other days they will be playing the NYY and have a 55% shot. so,you couldn't just blindly lay -150 (60%) or you will lose.

Now, on to your basketball, what SA did was amazing. But, were they only -300 all of those games? I doubt it. If they were, you would have cleaned up. But, they were double digit favs in a lot of those games. Which means the ML was higher. Which in turn means, one upset and you are SOL.

Also, your sample size isn't big enough. 38-3 does mean something as well as the 35-6, but after that, not as much. Plus, these teams were at home, where all teams generally perform better.

What you would be better off doing is looking at each of those home games and the ML and see how it turned out P/L if you bet to win $100 on each game. I am sure, that with SA youwill come out ahead. But, how much will you come out. But, you will also understand what I mean about the different prices and big losses. And, don't be results oriented about it either. You are just doing this as an experiment. Because, this year I doubt they will make as much money at home.

also, the bookmakers adjust the line. So, it isn't like they don't notice that SA is winning all these games at home. So, they increase the ML. Sometimes they will still lose, but when you factor in all teams they win. But, this brings us to a good point, they may adjust the ML to a higher number, but not move the spread. Lets say, for example, that they were 38-3 last year and if you bet every game to win $100 you would have won $2000 (again hypothetical). But, just because they went 38-3 SU, doesn't mean they went 38-3 ATS. In fact, in this situation the spread probably stayed at a normal price and the ML would have been way too high to bet. So, a capper/line shopper can't tell the future, but would see that SA was 53% ATS and 38-3 SU, but that price is too high to lay on them to win SU, but there is great value in laying the points.

If you want to PM me you can also.

craig

p.s. Regarding your P.S. I still don't think you are understanding. The ML in NCAA might be nice, but it is still about value. Once again a -10 favorite and a ML of -1500, you have to figure out what the ML should be based on a 10 point favorite.

p.p.s. None of this is opinion. This is all true. I may not win everyday or I might have opinions on games, but this discussion of value is not opinion.

[DougOzzzz]

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The Atlanta line at +700 is actually a pretty nice price. Our line converter* shows it should be +567 and for their opponents -1433.


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Don't take these numbers too seriously. They are probably close but the converter currently has a few problems when dealing with "extreme" favorites (and possibly to a lesser degree, extreme dogs). I will look at the formulas and hopefully have it fixed soon.

o.k.

very bad start to my moneyline strategy... atlanta beat indy and i think chicago beat SAS in san antonio....

[ohnonotthat]

No opinion on these two specific games but I have always preferred MLs to spreads in all sports.

Is it a coincidence that the only sport to do big $-line business is the books might well opt not to book if they had the option ?

As to your specific system however, if I understood you it souned like you were advocating betting favs laying small prices at home.

I have always thought (not sure whether past results bear this out) laying 180 instead of 3.5 or 250 instead of 5 was a recipe for disaster. There just aren't that many games where the favorite wins but fails to cover a small spread - this isn't football.

A 5 point favorite in BB is typically -220 or thereabouts on the ML; I have no stats to back this up but the math says that the ML wager is the better choice if the chance of a win-no-cover is 18% or greater. (Note: I am not saying to lay the 5; whether the team is a good bet or not, the necessity of an 18% disparity still applies).

5 point favs win but don't cover more than 1/6 of the time ?

Doesn't seem likely.

I'd love to hear from someone with stats to support or impeach this assumption.

[DougOzzzz]

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I'd love to hear from someone with stats to support or impeach this assumption.

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I have the equivalent moneyline on -5 -110 around -215 in the NBA.

I get 13.46% of games that the fave wins but doesn't cover, and an additional 4.63% that the favorite wins but pushes ATS.

[ohnonotthat]

Hmm -

Are you saying that there is a constant relationship between an "X" point fav. and that same team on the ML ?

If you are I strongly disagree.

While there are no Denver Nuggets circa-early 1980s or Detroit Pistons of the later 80s around today there are strong and weak defenses, strong and weak offenses, those that excel on both and those that are weak at both.

To suggest that a 5 point favorite will always be (or should I say SHOULD always be) a particular figure on the ML is wrong - very wrong.

Granted, there will never be a huge difference; you'll never see a -5,-150 nor will you ever see a -5, -300 but sportsbetting is about finding razor thin edges and pouncing.

This is especially true for basketball which is about matchups more than it is about absolute superiority.

Rock-paper-scissors is the motto of the NBA bettor.

The reason 'books charge 10 cents for ALL half points has nothing to do with all halves being equal. 10 cents for ANY 1/2 point is highway robbery so why do they care whether they are getting you to make an horrendous bet or a bet that is simply pretty bad.

While BB, unlike football, has no "hot numbers" there is still a non-linear relationship between MLs and point-spreads as well as no constant relationship involving two matchups where the fav in both just happens to be -"X".

Pinnacle's lines reflect this; they by charge more for some halves than others.

They also charge less than 10 cents for most halves but their "adjustments" are also bad bets. They're just not AS bad as the rest.

*

If I misunderstood you - i.e., if your conversion chart allows for this - my apologies.

[DougOzzzz]

wow... you asked for the stats and I gave them.

Personally, I think there is a small difference from game to game on what the proper ML should be given the same point spread. I don't think it is easily predictable though and for the most part just taking the results from past games at the previous spread should do fine for predicting the "correct" moneyline.

That wasn't the point of my post though. The point was that on average, teams that are -5 -110 in the NBA win the game about 2/3 of the time and thus, adding in the vig, -215 on the moneyline is roughly equivalent to -5 -110.

doug and "ohno..."

thanks for the help, much appreciated...

i've seen some good stuff on trends and types of bets that win in NBA, although i've learnt somewhat the hard way that once something has been a certain way for a long time, it can either reverse on its own or it gets priced into the market.

as you guys debated, i am also somewhat curious about whether a 5.5 point favorite should always be a reasonably similar moneyline... one sport i like the underdog moneyline is college football, 10 point spread is nothing and the moneyline payouts still seem very good. i could be wrong though about that. because i haven't played NFL moneyline much at all.

thanks again.