Theory of Poker Question

Hello everybody!

I'm reading Theory of Poker by David Sklansky and I didn't understood one concept about efective odds.

Here is the scenario: You have a back-door flush drawn in hold'em and an opponent bets $10 in a $250 pot.

Pot odds: 26 - 1
Odds of making the flush: 24-1

Then, Mr. Sklansky says:

"One out of 25 times you will win $260 in there, plus probaly another $40 on the last two rounds of betting. Twenty times you will lose only $10 when your first card does not hit, and you need not call another bet. But the remaining four times you will lose a total of $30 each time when you first cards hit and you call your opponent's $20 bet, and your second card does not hit. Thus, after 25 such hands, you figure to lose $320 while winning $300 for a net loss of $20"


OK, but, if my odds to get flush card are about 4-1 each round how i'll miss the first card TWENTY times in 24?

[Jimbo]

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OK, but, if my odds to get flush card are about 4-1 each round how i'll miss the first card TWENTY times in 24?


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Not a flush draw, a backdoor flush draw.

Yes, I know.

What I can't understand is how I'll miss the first card twenty times in twenty four when my odds to get a flush card are 10/46.

Any comment?

[AngusThermopyle]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I know.

What I can't understand is how I'll miss the first card twenty times in twenty four when my odds to get a flush card are 10/46.

Any comment?

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Next card will not be your flush card 37/47 (its 47 remaining cards on the Flop, not 46), or 78.7% of the time. Which is roughly 20 out of 25 (80%), which is what the book says (don't know where you came up with 20 out of 24).

[ QUOTE ]
Next card will not be your flush card 37/47 (its 47 remaining cards on the Flop, not 46), or 78.7% of the time. Which is roughly 20 out of 25 (80%), which is what the book says (don't know where you came up with 20 out of 24).

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Hello, thank you for your help.
I typed wrong the 10/4"6" /images/graemlins/blush.gif
The book says that I'll hit my flush drawn 1 time in 25, that's 24-1.
Then, Sklansky says that I'll miss my first card twenty times. (You can see in my first post)

Maybe I'm doing a big confusion, but I can't find a way to understand.

When I was saying 20 in 24, I was refering about the 24 times I would lost.

Oh!!

Now, I can see :P
Ok, forget it.

Thanks a lot /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

like people said, backdoor flush draw so you need both cards.

careful about the odds too.. one chance in 10 = 9 to 1 NOT 10 to 1.

wasn't totally sure about the 20 out of 25 or 20 out of 24. but didn't have a close look at it.