Did I miss a bet?

[ChuckyB]

Both players are relatively new at the table...so no reads.

Would you 3-bet the river? The insta-calling seemed suspicious. I wondered afterward if I would have heard from the case J on the turn.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, Button calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

[Nick Royale]

I like the call. This is a time where I think it's fine to go for an overcall. It's not unlikely you gain equally much by calling when ahead and when you're behind you're definately going to get capped. Button isn't bluffing here, he's raising 2 players which indicates a very strong hand on this board.

Heads-up I would have 3-betted.

[silly_monkey]

My first (or second) post here so take this FWIW...

I would personally have been happy to cap here. You have the second nuts with one card in the deck that beats you. Without reads this is much harder, its possible that button cold-called with AJ. I think that any other big PP will pay off here. One card in the deck that beats you + good chance of getting paid off by another big PP = suck it up and three bet. Then again... I'm a known spew monkey and would probably be on tilt after this hand.

[kapw7]

MP1 capped PF and called all the way inc the river so I don't think he would have aproblem to call 2 more bets in this big pot. The button raise is VERY worrying but I think we are ahead enough times to raise here.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 capped PF and called all the way inc the river so I don't think he would have aproblem to call 2 more bets in this big pot. The button raise is VERY worrying but I think we are ahead enough times to raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think we can count on MP1 calling a 3-bet on the river. After the flop cap all he's been doing is to call, one bet at the time. When a player raises both him and hero and hero 3-bets he will often fold. A good PP would have raised the flop and if he ain't got a good PP he'll most often fold the river for 2BB.

In this case he obviously didn't even call one more BB, not being result oriented, but it's an indication of how often he'll be able to fold for 2.

[Redd]

For the reasons Nick mentioned, I like the river call. I agree that we might not expect the pf-capper to overcall 2 more.

How about a flop check-raise? This flop is so innoculous it will be difficult for the middle guy to make a profitable call for one bet, so I don't mind trapping.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you 3-bet the river? The insta-calling seemed suspicious. I wondered afterward if I would have heard from the case J on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is correct. You think the jack would be smart enough to raise the turn, but the jack often isn't smart enough.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
How about a flop check-raise? This flop is so innoculous it will be difficult for the middle guy to make a profitable call for one bet, so I don't mind trapping.


[/ QUOTE ]
The flop will get bet 99% of the time, Button holds at most 2 outs if behind so we want him along for the ride (a flop bet might make him face 2 cold).

I think I like a flop check/raise. Still there are benefits of a bet as well. We'll get raised by MP1 a lot giving us the opportunity to 3-bet or check/raise the turn. Still, unless Button is very loose, I think check/raising the flop is better since we don't want him out.

[kapw7]

I mostly agree about MP1 but I don't think he folds every time here, However his role is minor compared to the fact that we have the best hand more than 50% of times against the average player (button) at 2/4.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I mostly agree about MP1 but I don't think he folds every time here, However his role is minor compared to the fact that we have the best hand more than 50% of times against the average player (button) at 2/4.

[/ QUOTE ]

x: probability we're beat by Button
y: probability MP1 calls a 3-bet.
z: probability MP1 calls the raise.

EV call:
z*(1 - x) - x

EV raise:
(1-x) + 2y(1 - x) - 3x


Let's assume we're ahead of Button 60% of the time, MP1 will call 2 more bets 20% of the time and 1 more 90%. That would give us:

EV call:
0.9*(1 - 0.40) - (0.40) = 0.14BB

EV raise:
(1-0.40) + 2*0.2*(1-0.40) - 3*0.4 = -0.36BB


These reasonable estimations and perfectly proves calling&gt;&gt;raising.

EDIT: This calculation is just comparing the 2 alternative action, which for example means that raising is of course better than folding. Didn't want to cause any confusion about that. The conclusion is that calling is 0.5BB better in EV than raising using these numbers.